2012 All-Europe Research Team: Deutsche Bank Retains its Crown

欧洲的债务危机进入第三年，没有任何决议。只有2010年5月，当时欧元区国家和国际货币基金组织统一援助措施时，希腊似乎可能违约，当时加上紧缩措施 - 使雅典能够履行其义务。

在那年之前，爱尔兰成为欧洲金融稳定设施的第一个受益者，这是一项以回应希腊危机而创造的救助基金，并由所谓的三驾驶：欧洲央行，欧盟和国际货币基金组织的支持。Last spring Portugal followed in Ireland’s footsteps and was granted a reprieve, but by the summer fears of contagion — notably in Belgium, France, Italy and Spain — had become so pronounced that the EU asked contributing countries to increase their commitments to the facility, eventually raising the total amount pledged from €440 billion ($579 billion) to €780 billion.

欧盟成立了eFSF，部分是为了恢复投资者的信心。12月，欧洲央行加强了历史悠久的现金，也旨在让投资者放心;它同意为500多家银行提供48.9亿欧元，为期三年，仅为1％的利息。“2011年12月至2012年1月之间的差异是引人注目的，”Simon Greenwell指示欧洲，中东和非洲为BOFA Merrill Lynch全球研究的覆盖范围。“欧洲央行授权的大型流动性材料增加了欧盟银行体系的长期偿付能力。”

然而，投资者的神经在上个月的重新嘎嘎作响 - 星期五第13届，不少 - 当标准差的削减九个欧洲国家的信用评级时。法国被剥夺了其珍惜的三倍的地位，而塞克利亚和葡萄牙债券被降级为垃圾（将它们放在一级与希腊的水平上，并加以批准葡萄牙违约的猜测是不可避免的）。意大利和西班牙每次陷入困境;奥地利，马耳他，斯洛伐克和斯洛文尼亚被降低了一级。

Three days after these downgrades, S&P cut the credit rating of the bailout fund itself.

“违约的君主违约的风险以及支出减少的影响避免了2011年的投资者情绪，这将延伸到2012年，”德国股权研究总监Richard Smith观察。“政治将在明年发挥至关重要的作用。”

格林威尔说，政策制定者有很少的选择：“他们可以混淆，分开或去进行财政整合，”他解释道。“由于政府似乎无法找到防止危机扩散的解决方案，这是最可能的情景。”

并传播它。市场专家已经采取了雇用稗罪来描述这种情况。在2010年，他们对PIIGS（葡萄牙，爱尔兰，意大利，希腊和西班牙的问题有关，并且到去年对欧洲破碎的脑电图（除德国外）表示担忧。消息很清楚：投资者需要小心他们的步骤。

Fortunately, there is no shortage of available guides; many firms have been boosting their coverage to keep clients up to date with all that’s happening. Institutional Investor asked money managers which analysts are doing the best job of providing the direction they find most helpful and thus deserve to be included in the2012 All-Europe Research Team，我们第27届年度排名该地区最佳分析师和团队。德意志银行统治最高的一年，总位44次 - 超过2011年的七个，并且几乎三次从六到十七到17分。

BofA Merrilladds two positions, for a total of 30; that’s enough to bump the firm up one notch to tie with瑞银第二,瑞士银行帮助的同一地点d in 2011. (UBS holds steady despite a loss of four positions.) Also returning in the same place as last year — in a tie for fourth — areJ.P. Morgan CazenoveandMorgan Stanley; each adds one position, bringing its total to 24.

调查结果在760多个机构中反映了大约2,200名货币管理者的意见，在欧洲股票中估计估计57万亿美元，或近84％的MSCI欧洲指数在投票中的市场上限为6.8万亿美元。

花旗使年度最戏剧性的举动，拿起六个职位，总共16次，并从十分之一的地方搭配第六次瑞士信贷从4号(瀑布)。“我们已经完全刷新ed our team, with over 60 analysts joining over the last 18 months,” explains Terence Sinclair, Citi’s head of equity research. “We have also focused on revamping our content. We added a new stock to Western Europe coverage every two days. We introduced a new, three-month recommendation alongside the 12-month recommendation, and we invested heavily in emerging-markets research.”

The firm is emphasizing collaboration among its analysts across countries, regions and asset classes. “Undoubtedly, macro is king for the moment,” he explains. “Clients want as much insightful economic research — and strategy and sector research that is joined up to that economic research — as possible.” To meet that need, Citi publishes daily sovereign-crisis updates and a thematic “Euro Weekly” report, and hosts regular investor calls with experts on key developments.

Teamwork is also the order of the day at UBS. “The macroeconomic view continued to be the dominant influence on the direction and volatility of markets in 2011, and this is also likely to be the case at least for the first half of 2012,” believes Mark Stockdale, head of European securities research. “UBS responded with a significant uplift in notes from the economics team as well as from colleagues in fixed-income, currency and commodities research and strategy, to provide a linked-up view of markets.”

投资组合managers are demanding more research into the connections among regions and asset classes, agrees BofA Merrill’s Greenwell. “In 2011 we developed a multi-asset-class capability to help clients understand the links between equity, credit, commodities, foreign exchange, rates and structured finance — and highlight ways of mitigating market risk,” he says.

Deutsche is employing a similar approach. “A thorough understanding of macro drivers is more important than ever for equity analysts as they formulate their forecasts and recommendations,” according to Jonathan Jayarajan, associate director of EMEA equity research. “We have weekly meetings where the latest views of our economists and our equity, credit, foreign exchange and commodities strategists are articulated for the entire European equity research platform. It ensures that our equity research team always has the latest and most accurate interpretation of events.”

One frequent topic of speculation is whether the single-currency union will survive. Deutsche’s Smith believes it will. “External observers tend to underestimate the determination of euro zone members to defend their currency,” he says. “They also tend to forget that the majority of EU members outside the euro zone want to join it eventually.”

Adds Jayarajan: “There is considerable political will at the heart of Europe to ensure that the currency succeeds, and we expect politicians to move far enough — under duress — to ensure the requisite treaties will be in place to deliver a functional currency.” However, he adds, “we cannot rule out that the member countries of the euro could change.”

花旗’s Sinclair concurs. “We don’t believe that the euro will break up, but everyone has to be positioned in case some countries leave,” he says. “These fears were the biggest drivers of indexes in 2011.”

Stockdale says UBS analysts “do not see the demise of the euro as a central case, but as a risk scenario. Investors were concerned as 2011 unfolded about the sustainability of the euro — with more concern from investors outside the euro zone itself.”

BofA Merrill believes a breakup is a “tail risk for 2012,” Greenwell says. David Hauner, the firm’s head of emerging EMEA economics and fixed-income strategy, modeled a scenario whereby dissolution resulted not in a reversion to single-country currencies, but rather in the establishment of three regional economic unions. “This is a useful structure, to look at the euro zone by geographic approximation, and these could be applied to thinking behind growth rates,” Greenwell adds.

该地区是否会产生增长？“除非主权债务和银行业危机得到解决，否则这是一个简单的不，”他说。“我们在去年的欧元区仍然是看跌。”

Others are more optimistic. “Our strategists expect European equity markets to be up moderately by year-end, although they see considerable downside risk in the first half as the markets remain jumpy around sovereigns’ refinancing,” Jayarajan says.

花旗仍然更看涨。“在2012年底，我们合理地乐观股票，并预测全球股票的20％收益，”Sinclair说。“我们认为市场在全球经济衰退中定价，这不太可能。在欧洲，我们有各地建造的战略“世界冠军” - 即本地基础的公司暴露于高增长海外市场。

最后一点是伊比利亚的特殊优势;许多公司总部位于葡萄牙和西班牙拥有强大的拉丁美洲动态市场联系。Mariano Colmenar在伊比利亚覆盖范围的1位现货，他的桑坦德投资Bolsa团队担任第三个直接外观，注意到该公司在基准IBEX 35索引中的22家公司具有“LateM的材料暴露，超过25％IBEX 35公司收入在该地区产生。这一曝光应该允许公司抵消来自国内市场困难的艰难情况的大部分收入放缓。“

However, emerging-markets presence alone is no solution. “International investors are broadly underweight in the euro zone on the back of poor economic and financial conditions,” the Madrid-based analyst says. “For them to come back, we need more visibility in the Greek situation, and further progress in fiscal coordination, European emergency funds, structural reforms in some peripheral countries and so on.”

隔壁，在法国，这个故事类似。“我们正是向投资者购买尽管这种阴沉的环境的机会的股票，无论是因为他们的商业模式中的世俗驱动因素还是由于其商业模式的世俗驱动因素，也是如此。”Exane BNP Paribas的Vincent Laurencin那who for a third year running leads the team voted No. 1 in French research. “We don’t subscribe to some of the more extreme negative views concerning the sustainability of the euro zone, and we believe that the measures taken by the ECB to provide liquidity to the banking system and ultimately to the economy have been underappreciated. We see the possibility of a short, sharp rally — especially given the very bearish sentiment prevailing around European equities.”

分析师们在伦敦和巴黎之间划分的时间，并不认为一连串会持续。Laurencin说：“解决主权问题的后果将是欧洲创造的欧洲经济增长的冗长期限，并降低政府债务水平的较低政府支出，”Laurencin说。

也期待停滞 - “最佳” - 在欧元区是Rabobank’sDavid Tailleur.那who leads his Utrecht-based team to a second straight first-place finish for coverage of Benelux. “To jump-start an economic recovery in Europe, the sovereign-debt crisis needs to be solved, and consumer confidence and unemployment data need to bottom out,” he says. Belgium took a step in the right direction in December when it finally installed a new government. (It had been run by a caretaker coalition since June 2010.) The move was “a necessary precondition to ensure the required cost-savings measures,” Tailleur explains. “Whether this will be a guarantee to avoid any more severe debt issues is difficult to conclude, as it also depends on the broader euro zone debt crisis — that is, the potential spillover effect.”

低生长肯定不会产生增长。J.P. Morgan Cazenove的经济学家不相信U.K.经济将恢复今年，但认为它将设法避免经济衰退，并将国内生产总值的衰退率为0.5％。Paul Huxford那who was named director of European equity research last May and leads the firm’s U.K. team to the winner’s circle, anticipates “beneficial tailwinds” from a declining euro and stable corporate earnings that should boost cyclical stocks — especially those with exposure to emerging markets. Also standing to gain, the London-based analyst says, are cheap equities ripe for value-style investors.

Carola Bardelli那whose Deutsche Bank team wins top honors for the first time for its coverage of Italy, notes that investors were relatively unfazed by S&P’s move last month. “Credit rating agencies have recently reflected ex post what markets had already anticipated — that is, what prices were already incorporating,” she explains. “For example, the double-notch downgrade came after a 26 percent fall for Italian equities in just over a year. Interest from international investors has actually increased since the beginning of 2012.”

她也不认为降级将延长主权债务危机。“市场对国家政府对紧缩和成长改革的努力以及欧洲央行对欧洲银行业制度的支持提供了积极的重视，”米兰队伍的Bardelli说，Bardelli说。“由于欧洲央行的三年，长期再融资运营，银行可以访问廉价的流动性 - 降低的资金成本最终应支持真正的经济并避免信贷紧缩。”

Bardelli’s colleagueandreas neubauer.同意。“欧洲央行为期三年的LTRO的力量正在被市场越来越复杂，”德国法兰克福的船员领导德国的法兰克福船长，首先连续16年覆盖其本国的覆盖范围。“至少，它大大降低了金融稳定性风险。银行还用于驾驶主权贸易取决于主权可持续性本身是否有所改善。成功退出危机的机会正在上升。“

爱尔兰正在塑造最主权债务成功故事。正如最近夏天，一些分析师坚持认为，翡翠岛默认，但上个月“爱尔兰将其债务成熟度推出了一年，帮助减轻2014年初的重新再融资要求是什么，“说戴维的Barry Dixon，基于Diblin的团队在过去11年中被投票为1号以九次为他们的家庭草皮覆盖。“最初提供的大约20亿欧元的事实是超额认购的一个积极迹象，即投资者正在对爱尔兰市场的前景充满信心。”

鉴于爱尔兰拥有一个小型，开放的经济 - 总出口占GDP的100％以上，迪克森笔记 - “爱尔兰比其一些欧洲同行更容易解决其缺陷问题”，“他说。尽管如此，该国仍然面临颠簸的康复道路，尽管是发展欧洲的唯一市场，以至于在积极的领土上才能结束15.1％。“面对它，爱尔兰市场是去年最好的表现之一，”迪克森开始了。“但如果你剥掉了247％的药物股票艾伦升值，则该指数下跌7.3％，使潜在的表现更加符合其他国际市场。”

Stock picking remains essential — and challenging. “Stocks that underperformed last year are the ones that have rallied the most as the market perceives the worst to be over,” he adds. “We don’t believe the worst is over just yet, so we are maintaining our cautious stance.”

警告似乎是当下的话语。“Europe is home to some of the best-regarded companies in the world, but it would be impossible to deny that their growth prospects have been impacted by the euro zone crisis and the lack of growth caused by the associated austerity measures,” notes Deutsche’s Jayarajan.

“有时距离可以为投资决策提供透视，但我们的主要关注点是解释难以让所有投资者的主权债务危机的解决方案 - 无论他们碰巧都在哪里，”史密斯加剧了。“缺乏易于解决方案的挫败感似乎是欧洲和其他地方的投资者共享。”•