野村第四年位居日本研究排名榜首

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从10月到3月，基准日经225指数暴涨近40%，连续录得逾40年来最佳季度涨幅。不足为奇的是，世界各地的基金经理们比以往任何时候都更加密切地关注日本股市，他们的兴趣部分来自于对新上任的首相安倍晋三承诺实施的经济改革政策的热情。

许多投资者心中的一个关键问题是：这种反弹会持续吗？毕竟，尽管日本经济数十年来一直萎靡不振，但自1989年最后一个交易日日经指数收于创纪录的38916点以来，日本股市已录得一些令人钦佩的年度涨幅。它在1999年飙升了36.8%，在2005年上升了40.2%，在2012年上升了近23%——但在去年结束时为8455.35，仍然比峰值下降了78.3%。目前的牛市是否强劲到足以收复所有失地，还是只是在日本股市普遍下跌的趋势下又一次短暂的上涨？

投资者often put their questions to the sell side to help them determine the best ways to allocate their portfolios.亚博赞助欧冠问钱米anagers that invest in Japan to indicate who provides the most helpful answers, and for a fourth year running, Nomura Securities Co. tops the All-Japan Research Team, our exclusive annual ranking of the country's best sell-side analysts. The firm's team position total drops by three, to 24; nonetheless, Nomura widens its lead over Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which returns in second place despite a loss of six spots, for a total of 18.

Mizuho Securities Group shoots from ninth place to share the third tier with UBS; each firm captures 15 positions. For Mizuho that's a gain of eight; for UBS, whose rank is unchanged, a loss of seven. Two firms share fifth place: SMBC Nikko Securities, which tied with Barclays for the No. 12 spot in 2012, adds nine spots, bringing its total to 14. Daiwa Securities Group rises one rung even though its total holds steady. These results reflect the opinions of nearly 900 individuals at 280 buy-side institutions that manage an estimated $791.75 billion in Japanese equities.

今年是排名20周年。为了纪念这一周年，II介绍了全日本研究团队名人堂，纪念那些至少积累了10次第一名的分析师。

Honorees include Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co.'s Nobuyuki Saji, who is No. 1 in Economics for a 12th year in a row.

Saji is less optimistic than many market observers about the impact of the prime minister's emphasis on monetary easing and public spending. Yen depreciation drives up the cost of imported goods, he explains, and price increases drive down household real income. The trade deficit for such necessities as clothing, energy and food is currently about ¥32 trillion ($339.51 billion). This shortfall is largely offset by surpluses in other sectors, leaving Japan's net annual trade deficit at roughly ¥7 trillion. "So 10 percent yen depreciation causes those import costs to rise by ¥3.2 trillion, which will lead to higher living costs for Japan's aging population," Saji says.

Plus, the number of Japanese reaching retirement age is spiking. More than one in five citizens is 65 or older; by 2020 that ratio will climb to one in four. "They can be expected to start withdrawing money from bank accounts to make up the difference between their cost of living and their pensions," which could have dire consequences for financial institutions, he points out. "At the same time, [retirees'] medical expenses will increase because of age, and this will lead to an increase in government spending because Japan has universal coverage, so further fiscal expansion will lead to long-term interest rate hikes."

Hajime Kitano, who rises one rung to plant the J.P. Morgan flag atop the Equity Strategy sector, is also skeptical. "The biggest factor affecting the Japanese economy is the high cost of capital," he insists. "Through globalization, convergence of the cost of capital occurs worldwide. Japan has a low expected potential growth rate and suffers from a virtual tight-money policy, and the policies of the Abe administration will likely not solve this. Japanese companies should try to increase sales more than return on equity."

Others are far more upbeat. Kazuhiro Miyake, who captures third place in Equity Strategy for a second year running, predicts so-called Abenomics will help drive up the Nikkei index by 41 percent this year, assuming the current exchange rate of ¥95 to the dollar holds. If the currency weakens to ¥105, the market could skyrocket some 60 percent, the Daiwa Securities Group researcher believes.

名人堂r Hironari Nozaki, who claims his tenth straight first-place appearance in Banks, is also optimistic. "Reflation policies will surely assist the recovery of the Japanese economy and take us out of the stagnant decades," the Citi analyst asserts.