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Hall of Fame Honors Japan's Best Analysts

在日本股市困难时期,这些分析师一直是日本最好的分析师之一。

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Twenty years ago this month,亚博赞助欧冠出版了第一个全日本研究团队。为了纪念这一时刻,II介绍了全日本研究团队名人堂,表彰那些在日本股市非常困难的时期,在自己的行业或行业中至少累积了10次第一名的分析师。

The article accompanying the 1994 roster noted that, in spite of a lengthy and severe recession, money managers were convinced that “Japan’s economic recovery will start at midyear.” In retrospect, it seems significant that the article did not specify the year in which said revival was expected to begin.

上世纪80年代宽松的信贷政策以及年均4%的实际国内生产总值(gdp)增长,推动了房地产繁荣,导致日本住房和股票价格飙升。日经225指数(nikkei225)在这十年中曾飙升了约6倍,但在1989年最后一个交易日达到最高收盘点38916点。到第二年年底,该指数已暴跌近39%,至23849点。

全日本
Hall of FameThe 20-Year Leaders
加权引线
大多数头号人物
Most All-Time Appearances

Atsushi Yamaguchi

山口秀美

Hironari Nozaki

六月
Harada

斋藤胜司

任命吉田健一郎

桥本直人

三部信佑

冲野俊彦

Toshinori Ito

Early on, market observers believed that the downturn was simply a correction — albeit a dramatic one — because no single event had precipitated the fall, as could have been expected in the case of a market crash. But the index has yet to reverse course, closing 2012 at 10,395, some 73 percent below that 1989 high. Although the general trend was downward, the market experienced wild swings in the interim. Over the 23 years from 1990 through 2012, the Nikkei index ended in positive territory ten times — spanning from a miniscule 0.7 percent advance in 1995 to a stunning 40.2 percent gain in 2005 — and on a negative note 13 times, degrees ranging from a 2.3 percent dip in 1996 to a 42.1 percent plummet in 2008. Its longest winning streak? Four straight years of annual gains from 2003 through 2006. But it also endured a trio of three-year losing streaks: 1990–’92, 1996–’98 and 2000–’02.

经历了所有的起起落落——一股高涨预示着永久性反弹的希望,一股看似不可避免的抛售开始时的失望——投资组合经理们在他们认为哪家公司提供了最好的投资建议和市场洞察方面表现得非常一致。野村证券(Nomura Securities Co.)在过去20年中曾18次带领或共同领导全日本研究团队,仅两次滑落至第二名:2001年,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)高居榜首;2009年,大和研究所(Daiwa Institute of Research)高居榜首。野村曾三次分享赢家圈:2003年,与日兴花旗(Nikko Citigroup);2010年,与大和证券(Daiwa Securities Group);2011年,与美银美林全球研究(BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research)。不足为奇的是,它在过去几年里积累了比其他任何公司都多的团队职位——459个。按照这一指标衡量,卖方机构排名第二的是花旗(Citi),为281家,其次是瑞银(UBS),为272家。(这些总数包括前几家公司赢得的头寸,后来被引用的实体吸收了。)投资者对最优秀分析师的看法也相当稳定。自该团队成立以来,只有518人参加了投票;相比之下,全美研究团队在过去两倍的时间里,对行业数量进行了大约两倍的调查,得出的结果显示,截至去年,累计排名的个人总数为15000人。造成这一巨大差异的一个原因可能是,日本国内企业的分析师往往较少四处走动。正如II在1994年指出的那样,“野村证券宣布,从现在起,它的分析师将在一个行业中至少呆五年,而不是在各个行业中轮换。”

美国许多最受尊敬的研究人员几十年来一直在研究他们的行业。伊藤俊三郎(Toshinori Ito)去年离开瑞银(UBS)创立了自己的公司,总部位于东京的伊藤研究咨询公司(itoresearch and advision Co.),他早在1984年就开始关注能源公司。花旗的山口英美(Hidemaru Yamaguchi)自1988年起担任医疗保健分析师。瑞银(UBS)旗下的冲野俊彦(toshihikookino)自1993年以来一直在报道房地产行业。

这三位分析师都是经过挑选的一批符合名人堂资格要求的人,占总数的不到2%。10家公司中有8家仍在发布投资研究报告;其中7家今年再次登上各自行业的榜首。在获奖者声称的里程碑中:

* Kenichiro Yoshida, with 30 appearances, has ranked more often than any other analyst; he last made the team in 2010 on behalf of Goldman Sachs (Japan).

* Toshihiko Okino has appeared more often than any currently ranked analyst; the UBS researcher has logged 27 appearances, including two this year: first place in Housing & Real Estate and runner-up in Construction.

*桥本直人(Naoto Hashimoto)以16人的成绩保持着第一名的记录;其中8人在能源和公用事业(或前身行业)以及8人在交通运输领域——所有人都是代表野村证券(Nomura Securities Co.)的。

* Among currently ranked analysts, there is a four-way tie for most first-place finishes: Jun Harada of UBS (Transportation), Katsushi Saito of Nomura (Machinery), Nobuyuki Saji of Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. (Economics) and Hidemaru Yamaguchi of Citi (Health Care & Pharmaceuticals) have each appeared at No. 1 a dozen times and counting — all four are sector leaders this year.

* Harada is the only Hall of Famer to have displaced a fellow Hall of Famer as sector champion; the UBS analyst snapped Hashimoto’s eight-year winning streak in Transportation in 2002.

* Hidemaru Yamaguchi has the highest ratio of first-place finishes to total appearances of any Hall of Famer, landing at the top 12 out of 13 times.

*瑞银宣称最多的大厅Famers, with four: Harada, Toshinori Ito (who left the firm last year to launch his own boutique), Okino and Atsushi Yamaguchi.

*在球队出场次数最多的十位分析师中,只有桥本、冲绳和吉田三位名人堂球员。

* Hashimoto and Ito are the only Hall of Famers who ranked on the inaugural All-Japan Research Team, in 1994; Hashimoto debuted in first place in Transportation and in Utilities, while Ito led a team that tied for third place in Basic Materials.

* Hashimoto, by consistently dominating two sectors, achieved Hall of Fame status faster than anyone else; he claimed his tenth first-place finish in 1998, in just his fifth year on the team.

每年,当新成员符合资格要求时,我会为他们介绍新成员进入名人堂。只有一位分析师有可能成为明年的竞争者:大和银行的吉野高昭(takaki Yoshino),他目前正在第九次访问定量研究领域的赢家圈子。

To view the full list of firms ranked by total team positions, click on The 20-Year Leaders in the navigation table above.

要查看在团队中排名超过10次的分析师的列表,请单击“最常出现”。

要查看六次或六次以上获得第一名的分析师名单,请单击大多数排名第一的出场次数。

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