菲律宾Wins Plaudits for Policy and an Investment-Grade Rating

菲律宾官员通常在参加国际论坛时收到有关当前国家所需的需要情况。然而，这几天局外人正在参加宾夕法尼亚州政府为政府开展的宾夕法尼亚州“诺诺伊”阿基诺三世。

The shift in tone is evident at the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank, which gathers Finance ministers and central bankers from 67 countries in New Delhi from May 2 to 5. The ADB’s annual Asian Development Outlook says recent budget and governance reforms have bolstered the country’s finances and improved the investment climate. The government also got a boost on May 2 when Standard & Poor’s Corp. raised its sovereign debt rating on the Philippines to investment grade for the first time, with a one-notch upgrade to BBB-. The move matched a similar upgrade by Fitch Ratings a few days earlier.

Not surprisingly, senior Philippines officials are taking something of a victory lap at the ADB meeting.

“Judging by investor sentiments and developments in our financial market, we see the view that Philippines as the sick man of Asia is no longer the case,” Governor Amando Tetangco of the Philippines central bank tells亚博赞助欧冠in New Delhi. “We believe this progress we have achieved in past two years can be sustained in the medium term.”

Last year, the Aquino administration doubled excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco, overcoming strong opposition from powerful lobbying groups representing those industries. The tax increases are expected to raise 44 billion pesos ($1.1 billion), which will be used to keep the budget deficit under 2 percent of gross domestic product while increasing social welfare spending for the poor. In addition to fiscal discipline, the government has taken steps to combat tax evasion and crack down on corruption in public works contracting that has frustrated efforts to improve the country’s infrastructure.

The tax change enhanced the government’s “credibility as an instrument advancing reform,” the ADB said in its outlook. “More recently, governance reforms and gradual improvements in infrastructure have enhanced the investment environment,” it added.

菲律宾经济一直有弹性，2012年扩大了6.6％，是东南亚最快的速率之一，前面的亚洲平均值为6％。通过加速中国的增长，增长的亚行计划将谦虚地增长至6.0％，达到6.0％，即使亚洲平均水平上升至6.6％。

S&P cited an improvement in the government’s finances, a sustained current account surplus and buoyant reserves for its upgrade. The government has reduced its foreign debt to $60 billion, or roughly 24 percent of GDP, from a high of 60 percent in the 1990s, according to Tetangco. Overall government debt stood at 48 percent of GDP at the end of 2012, according to Finance minister figures.

根据标准普尔的情况，从2009年结束时，菲律宾人汇款的汇款使政府能够将其储备率提升到840亿美元，从2009年的440亿美元。

“We expect continued remittance inflows from a large emigrant labor force along with an expanding business process outsourcing industry to keep the current account in surplus over the next several years,” says Agost Benard, a Singapore-based analyst at the ratings firm. Revenues from offshore remittances and from business process outsourcing currently amount to about 15 percent of GDP, comfortably covering trade deficits of 6 percent to 9 percent of GDP, he says.

Tetangco paints an optimstic outlook for the near term. “We see our GDP growing between 6 percent and 7 percent annually in the coming two to three years,” he says. “We see the foreign debt to GDP ratio falling to below 20 percent in next two to three years.”

In the longer term, the country faces a challenge to lift its relatively low income levels. The Philippines’s per capita GDP is expected to be $2,850 this year, below that of most similarly rated sovereigns, according to S&P. By that measure, the country ranks as one of the poorest in the region, well behind Thailand ($5,600) and Indonesia ($4,700) but above Vietnam ($1,500).

Tetengco表示，他认为最近的信贷升级将有助于国家吸引更多的外国直接投资，尤其是制造业，这对提高收入水平至关重要。“

更多FDI是必要的，“他说。“我们相信外国直接投资将建立更多的生产能力，创造就业机会，创造我们可以产生更具包容性增长的条件。这些类型的投资产生了更可持续的增长。“

Net FDI more than doubled to $2.8 billion in 2012, up from $1.26 billion in 2011.