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Emerging Markets Face Mounting Challenges as Global Liquidity Dries Up
Demographic and growth dynamics remain positive, but countries need to improve governance and pursue reform to take advantage.
The most challenging times for investors are when frothy markets turn choppy. As Warren Buffett once explained to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, you find out who’s swimming naked only when the tide goes out.
今天在emerging-marke投资者和政策制定者ts economies know just what he meant. These vibrant countries helped pull the global economy back from the brink of disaster with their quick recovery from the recession that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings in 2008. China used massive stimulus to get growth back near its torrid precrisis pace, bolstering global demand for everything from iron ore to iPads. Countries like Brazil and Russia prospered from the boom in commodity prices. Investors fleeing near-zero interest rates in Western economies sent record amounts of money to developing countries, spurring an epic stock market rally. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained some 150 percent between February 2009 and April 2011.
In recent months, however, the mere hint of a tapering of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve Board has altered the calculus of global investing and put emerging-markets policymakers in the hot seat. Investors have rushed for the exits, pulling more than $47 billion from emerging markets since May, according to fund tracking firm EPFR Global, causing stock markets to swoon and interest rates to climb. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 5 percent of its value in one week in mid-August on jitters about rising U.S. interest rates, bringing its decline for this year to more than 15 percent. Over the same period the S&P 500 gained 15 percent and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 6 percent.
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影响对新兴市场货币甚至更大了。巴西，印度，印度尼西亚，南非和土耳其在今年的各种货币下降了10％以上。他们采取了措施，包括利率徒步旅行（巴西，印度，印度尼西亚和土耳其），市场干预（巴西和印度）和进口克制（印度尼西亚）试图严格流动。摩根士丹利分析人员称，发展中国家的总体储备于6月和7月在2009年发生的第一次发生。印度尼西亚的储备在今年前七个月内截至200亿美元，或18％，达到927亿美元。
Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, endorsed the protective measures at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, late last month but warned that countries needed “further lines of defense,” including central bank swap lines and IMF assistance.
The prospect of a change in Fed policy after five years of unprecedented monetary ease is daunting. Investors with long memories will recall that U.S. monetary tightening helped trigger both the Latin debt crisis of the 1980s and the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. The roots of the recent tensions extend far beyond the level of U.S. interest rates, however, and reflect a deterioration in economic fundamentals across much of the emerging-markets world.
中国的增长率从2010年的10.4％从2010年的10.4％稳步减缓至今年第二季度的7.5％。在某种程度上，预期放缓：中国已经过于富裕，继续基于低工资制造业的两位数税率增长。该国在试图将其经济从出口驱动的发电机重新定位成一个人的国内消费更多的推动 - 这是一个棘手的过渡，可能是顺利的任何东西。此外，许多分析师和投资者担心该国5.6亿美元的刺激计划可能在中国的大银行留下了债务问题的遗产。(See also "中国和俄罗斯可以逃脱危机吗？")
雷曼的遗产：金融危机后5年来看看世界
随着中国Juggernaut放缓，巴西，俄罗斯，南非和其他原材料出口商不能再依赖稳步上涨的收入。石油和铜价的价格均在2000年至2008年之间增加了五倍。由于中国开始失去动力，在2011年春季，石油价格下跌15％，铜价30％。这种拒绝是增长放缓到巴西和俄罗斯的近期停顿的主要原因。
此外，许多国家都感受到失去对增长经济改革的热情的影响 - 或者从未首先进行食欲。India let its economic liberalization efforts lapse for several years, and although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recalled Palaniappan Chidambaram to the Finance Ministry in 2012 with a mandate to contain the budget deficit and open up the country’s retail sector, that hasn’t been enough to stem the economic decline. India, along with Indonesia and Turkey, also let its current-account deficit widen sharply. Those deficits, once easily financed, are now spooking investors as the flow of easy money dries up.
Many developing countries continue to suffer from corruption and poor corporate governance. Only one major emerging market, Chile, ranks among the top 40 countries on the2012 Corruption Perceptions Index，由透明度国际发布，一名基于柏林的治理倡导集团。Investors have been burned repeatedly by emerging-markets companies whose results didn’t live up to the hype, such as Sino-Forest Corp., which filed for bankruptcy after an accounting scandal, and OGX Petróleo e Gas Participações, the Brazilian oil company that is seeking to restructure its debts after failing to meet the bold production promises of owner Eike Batista.
所有这些因素联手表示怀疑on the idea, prevalent just a year ago, that the future belonged to emerging markets. Bridgewater Associates, the $145 billion Westport, Connecticut–based hedge fund firm, predicts that the advanced countries — a group that includes the U.S., Western Europe and Japan — will add more to global growth this year than emerging-markets economies, something that hasn’t happened since 2007.
To be sure, the emerging markets are not about to collapse. These countries are still expanding much faster than the developed world in percentage terms, and corporate executives continue to focus on them as a source of the next generation’s profits. The population of emerging-markets countries is projected to grow by 2.4 billion by 2050 while that of developed countries plateaus near current levels, according to the United Nations’世界人口前景报告。甚至如果大的国家看到他们的增长率缓慢，也是一股新的前沿市场，如哥伦比亚和尼日利亚，正在迅速发展，为投资者提供新的机会。
“从我们坐在哪里静态仍然是对土耳其，印度尼西亚或墨西哥之类的金砖金子[巴西，俄罗斯，印度和中国]和其他市场的乐观乐观态度。麦肯锡公司的实践“中国和印度在18世纪之前占全球GDP的一半，他们现在正在回到合法的地方。”
由于多年的增长和记录储备积累，大多数新兴市场国家对时，这一国家有更多的资源来面对今天的困难，而不是过去的困难。
“认为俄罗斯于1998年违约是惊人的，因为它不能筹集50亿美元，而且15年后我们的储备金是该国最大的银行，Sberbank，Sberbank的副主席Anton Karamzin，告诉亚博赞助欧冠。
Nevertheless, emerging markets face a much greater challenge in trying to sustain the progress made over the past two decades.
过去二十年的新兴市场的崛起已经真正历史。自1990年以来，中国和印度两次加倍GDP两次 - 在工业革命期间，在工业革命中实现了英国150年的东西，指出麦肯锡的炎症。英格兰开始崛起，以大约1000万的人口崛起;中国和印度的综合人口占20亿的综合人口，在比以往任何时候都在较短的时间内脱离贫困的人。据世界银行称，发展中国家自2000年以来，全球经济产出的份额几乎翻了一番，达到31.7％。在购买力平价基础上，它们的股价上升至43％。
如果只有在数学的角度来看，这种暴躁的扩张必然会减缓。“不需要是中等收入陷阱，但不可避免地是一个中等收入减速，”摩根士丹利投资管理和书籍作者的新兴 - 市场股票股份负责人Ruchir Sharma说突发国家：追求下一个经济奇迹。“关于中国最重要的是在未来五年内重新调整5％或6％的增长。”
Other factors are reining in yesteryear’s tigers. The past two decades of unprecedented wealth creation have adversely affected competitiveness, especially in China. Average Chinese wages increased by 17 percent a year in dollar terms from 2000–’12, according to research by Sammy Suzuki, portfolio manager for emerging-markets core equities atAlliancebernstein.。只有俄罗斯的平均工资每年攀登23％，那么幼儿园才徘徊。中国大多数亚洲邻国将工人持续到同一时期的单位年度工资徒步旅行。相比之下，墨西哥减少了每年升高的0.4％。看待这些数字，难怪中国的领导人已经设定了转向出口导向的增长的目标。
Russia and Brazil have tried to counteract softening commodity earnings by using consumer credit to boost spending, but both have had to put on the brakes, fearing inflation and bad-debt problems.
The best path forward for these countries, says Sharma, is the one blazed by Japan, which reached middle-income status in the 1970s, and followed by South Korea and Taiwan, which hit that milestone in the 1980s. These countries moved to the top of the value-added chain and created world-beating companies like Toyota Motor Corp., Samsung Group and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. China seems to be the best positioned of the BRICs for this transformation; Russia, with virtually no globally competitive products except for raw materials and weapons, the worst.
Success has become a problem for many rising economic powers in another way: It has made their leaders complacent and resistant to change. Consider the role of large state-owned companies and banks. In the 1990s the U.S. and the IMF urged developing countries to privatize wide swaths of their economies as part of market-oriented reforms, but the so-called Washington Consensus has lost credibility as the U.S. and Europe have struggled with self-inflicted economic wounds, while China’s rise has increased the appeal of state-led capitalism. In recent years privatization has ground to a halt in many countries.
对这些经济体的重新突出是任何有益的。根据摩根士丹利的Sharma的计算，拥有至少30％的国家所有权占新兴市场的最高三分之一的三分之一的公司，其价值在过去五年中令人惊叹的40％。
中国和中国建设银行的工商银行，既有国有，全球福布斯全球2000年全球公司名单。他们是世界上最有利可图的银行之一，但由于投资者对债务问题的担忧，这两家股票都表现不佳。自2010年8月以来，工商银行的股价下跌了11％，而CCB已下降12％。PetróleoBraasileiro和Gazprom分别是巴西和俄罗斯的最大公司，但他们的勘探工作未能以自2011年4月以来的一半以上跌幅超过一半。“如果你它可以在像Petrobras或Gazprom这样的公司获得一些可见的改进，它真的会推动整个市场，“Triogem资产管理管理合伙人蒂姆西摩说，纽约对冲基金公司的3亿美元侧重于新兴市场。但是，他没有抱着他的呼吸。
更广泛的系统改革已经放缓，如果没有地在领先的新兴市场停止，而且公司治理丑闻仍然是经常出现的。十几个或如此公开交易的中国公司的股票因2010年和2011年的会计违规行为而崩溃;资本化在2012年在加拿大达到了60亿美元的资本化达到了60亿美元，以便在2012年在中国夸大了它的木材控股。Those scandals have been a major factor in the nearly 35 percent drop in China’s CSI 300 index since the end of 2009. In October 2011 the Securities and Exchange Board of India reported an “elaborate scheme to manipulate markets” involving the conversion of Luxembourg-listed global depositary receipts of 17 different companies into domestic shares at arbitrary multiples. In July, Brazil’s securities regulator launched an investigation into allegations of insider trading at OGX after owner Batista sold a chunk of shares shortly before the company issued a warning about its oil output prospects.
投资者说，对这些丑闻的正式回应是最小的。“公司治理在世界任何地方并没有变得越来越好，”富兰克林·斯坦普顿投资的新兴市场集团执行主席Mark Mobius Mark Mobius说。
Corruption is not getting better, either. Out of 178 countries in Transparency International’s 2012 Corruption Perceptions Index, the BRICs ranged from 69th place (Brazil) to 133rd (Russia) — a little worse, on average, than their scores five years earlier.
当繁荣在大部分发展世界中提升了流行的期望时，增长和流行结构问题较慢和流行结构问题的结合在于繁荣。今年夏天在巴西在里约热内卢和圣保罗举行的高级公共汽车票据的当地抗议活动迅速转移到全国范围内的不平等示范，并在2014年国际足联世界杯和2016年夏季奥运会上的政府支出的涉嫌奢侈。在土耳其政府计划推舵中央伊斯坦布尔公园的计划，激发了一个清真寺和购物中心，引发了更广泛的抗议活动，反对总理Reacep Tayyip Erdo政府的被感知的威权主义？GaN;骚乱促进了伊斯坦布尔股市下跌25％。
“如果人们的收入没有尽可能快地增加，他们将更多地关注那些比他们更加丰富的人，”麦肯锡的阿斯蒙说。“我们无法预测这将如何发挥作用。”
如果美联储减少了这种秋季的债券购买，所有这些消极因素都将更突出地发挥作用，并提出全球市场的大量流动性开始后退。根据国际货币基金组织的拉加德的说法，累积净资金流入新兴市场债券的债券已上涨，超过了1.1万亿美元，超出了长期的结构趋势，估计的4700亿美元。包括股票和外国直接投资的整体净流量，自2010年以来一年以上的价格超过1.1万亿美元。如果流量的逆转到达那个幅度附近的任何地方，则可能会影响从增长率到股票价格的一切跨越大部分发展中国家的消费者信贷的可用性。
The emerging-markets story is hardly over, though. The BRICS may have slowed significantly, but a number of other markets, most of them at a much earlier point on the development curve, continue to generate strong growth and investment gains.
“我们正在寻找具有积极变化的催化剂的地方，通常是一个在糟糕的十年之后来到权力的新领导者，”摩根斯坦利的莎钵说。
菲律宾是一个巅峰的例子。自2010年以来以来，贝尼奥科基诺总统III总统推动了加强该国财务和收入不平等收入的财政和农业改革。他促进了该国作为呼叫中心和商业外包的位置。结果令人印象深刻：去年经济扩大了6.4％，并正在追踪今年类似的表现。菲律宾在5月份达到了一个里程碑，当标准差距第一次为国家提供了投资级评级时。
投资者还植入尼日利亚，总统耶和克乔纳森在2011年选举后监督高于6％以上的增长率，并制定了雄心勃勃，专业市场改革的蓝图。市场已回答：尼日利亚证券交易所全股指数在12个月至8月29日举行54％至36,400.38。
“What’s really new since 2008 is the emergence of the frontier,” says Franklin Templeton’s Mobius. “It’s like 1987 all over again. We are flying around the world setting up brokerage and custody arrangements. It’s very exciting.”
许多前沿市场正在积极追求国际投资者，并追求治理改革和以市场为导向的政策。“几乎在世界各地的任何地方，您将找到一个有能力的财务部长和央行人。这是15年前的情况，“佐治亚州前总理和现在的Gboth Georgia Liberty Bank和卢旺达的Kigali银行董事长Lado Gurgenidze说。
风险肯定会回到新兴市场，而是下一代奖励招手。•