Melbourne-based entrepreneur Darren Dai has discovered a great way to increase the sale of Australian pine and softwoods to his Chinese furniture manufacturing clients: taking renminbi as payment.
去年，Koalstralia资源的负责人开始接受中国货币，也被称为人民币，来自客户而不是美国美元。该改变有助于公司的中国客户降低交易成本，包括对冲和典型的1.5％的外汇费用。“反过来，”戴伊解释道，“Koalstralia可以从中国市场的更多订单中受益。”自去年以来，该公司已达到820万元（130万美元），其应收款项约为10％。
Koalstralia资源公司远非孤军奋战。总部位于布鲁塞尔、负责全球金融机构国际支付业务的Swift报告称，截至今年6月的12个月内，人民币在国际贸易中的使用量激增了150%。汇丰控股（hsbcholdings）的数据显示，目前中国3.87万亿美元的商品和服务贸易中，近16%是以本币结算的，高于2011年的8%，2010年几乎为零。（也可以看看 ”中国货币创造性地扩张以吸引投资”)
货币在贸易中越来越大的作用促成了人民币计价的存款和公司债券的充满活力的离岸市场 - 被称为点心 - 以及外汇交易。虽然过去三个月的最近备率已经停滞不前，但人民币公司债券的市场已经增长到384亿美元优秀。伦敦和新加坡将人民币业务视为一个增长领域，这两个城市都加入了香港作为过去一年债券发行的中心。“人民币的日益越来越多的利用与中国的身材符合着突出的经济和交易能力，”Jing Ulrich说，J.P.摩根加州全球市场全球市场主席。
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The renminbi is also poised to play a more prominent role in investment markets. In June, Beijing announced a near-doubling of quotas for foreign fund managers investing in Chinese equities, to $150 billion from $80 billion. Take-up has been slow as China’s A-share markets have performed poorly — trading nearly 40 percent below their 2009 peak late last month — but many investors say they expect to increase their exposure to China in the months ahead.（也可以看看 ”北京散布了它的翅膀”)
In late 2010, as China was surpassing Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy, Beijing embarked upon an ambitious program to make the renminbi an international currency, which central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said would ultimately lead to reserve currency status. The plan is still in its early stages and will require major reforms to succeed, but recent developments suggest that it is gaining real traction in the markets. Some analysts and investors say the day is fast approaching when the renminbi will stand alongside the dollar, euro and yen as a major global currency.
“China’s capital markets could surpass those of the U.S. by 2020,” says Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Franklin Templeton Investments’ emerging-markets group. “When the RMB becomes fully convertible, it can rival the U.S. dollar. The reason the dollar has been so prominent is because it is the freest currency.”
雷曼的遗产：金融危机后5年来看看世界
不过，地平线上有威胁性的云层。中国经济正在放缓，分析人士警告称，银行体系的坏账问题日益严重，这是2009年北京通过银行向经济注入的4万亿元大规模刺激计划的遗留问题。如果金融危机爆发，它可能需要像刺激计划那样大规模的救助，放慢经济改革的步伐，推迟或破坏促进人民币全球使用的计划。《牛眼报告》编辑、野村国际（Nomura International）前亚洲策略师保罗•舒尔特（Paul Schulte）表示：“随着更重要的问题浮出水面，未来一两年人民币国际化可能会退居次要地位。”。
然而，到目前为止，当局没有呈犹豫迹象。
前世界银行顾问、海通国际证券集团（haitonginternationalsecurities Group）研究主管胡逸凡（huyifan）表示，中国正在遵循一项由三部分组成的人民币升值战略。第一阶段，鼓励贸易结算，进展顺利。过去五年，中国人民银行与亚洲、拉丁美洲和欧洲的22个国家签署了总额达2万亿元人民币的互换协议，以促进人民币用于贸易支付。
In the second phase the government will adopt an array of financial market reforms, including the establishment of special zones where capital can flow in and out freely, followed by full liberalization of the capital account, then unconditional renminbi convertibility. “China is moving from phase one to phase two, and this process may take three to seven years,” says Hu.
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胡锦涛说，人民币获得储备货币地位的第三个也是最后一个阶段可能需要几十年才能实现。她说：“金融产品供给不足、金融市场缺乏深度以及资本流通受到限制，这些都阻碍了人民币成为世界储备货币。”。
然而值得注意的是，日本、俄罗斯、韩国和其他国家的央行已经开始积累人民币。澳大利亚储备银行（ReserveBankofAustralia）已将高达5%的储备投资于中国政府债券。“在储备货币方面，这已经发生了，”汇丰银行香港业务的首席执行官Anita Fung说。
人民币的国际化是一个长期的-term goal, says Hu, but other important changes are taking place in the markets. The renminbi has become the reference currency for much of Southeast Asia: Those countries’ currencies move more closely in line with China’s than with the dollar or the euro, according to a new paper by Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler of the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. The Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, Philippines peso, Singapore dollar, South Korean won, Taiwan dollar and Thai baht all track the renminbi more closely than they do the dollar. “There is now a de facto RMB currency bloc in East Asia,” the economists write.
北京美国律师和作者的劳伦斯Brahm表示，人民币越来越多的人民币利用增强了中国的地缘政治力量中国世纪：下一个经济强国的觉醒. “We have to look at the globalization of the yuan as not just financial engineering but as part of an overall global strategy that is political as well as economic,” says Brahm, who advises China’s executive State Council on environmental policy and market reforms. “One obvious advantage is that when the RMB becomes widely accepted globally as a currency, it will become even easier for Chinese investors to go overseas.” Chinese companies have invested more than $380 billion in offshore acquisitions since 2006, according to the Washington-based Heritage Foundation. “That could top $1 trillion in the coming decade,” contends Brahm.
没有规定一个国家的经济体重必须转化为其货币的国际角色。几十年来，日本抵制了更广泛地利用日元，担心东京对国内经济的控制。日益增长的国际对人民币的角色可能会破坏北京的控制，因为当局需要提供足够的货币来蔓延和接受自由资本流动的大部分波动性。
“三大货币区都面临着金融市场和国际化的强劲发展之后的主要金融危机，”海通的胡说。“中国可能必须加强对其市场的监管，以避免这种陷阱。”
The currency has made the most progress as a unit of settlement. The growth rate of renminbi trade settlement doubled in the year ended June 30, to 150 percent from 75 percent a year earlier, according to Swift. The currency now ranks 11th globally, behind the Swedish krona, up from 20th in January 2012. But trade settlement is highly concentrated because of economies of scale. The renminbi was used in just 0.87 percent of all cross-border payments in June, well behind the top four: the euro (37 percent), dollar (36 percent), British pound (8.6 percent) and yen (2.6 percent).
“第十一位仍然远离顶峰，”加州大学伯克利加州大学的经济学家和货币专家票据巴里Eichengreen。“人们可以说，人民币作为全球货币更加认真地被剥夺。但它仍然远远远远被视为美元。“
Still, China is the world’s largest trading nation, and its companies have an interest in using yuan rather than dollars or euros abroad. The authorities are encouraging the trend. In May, Beijing made the renminbi convertible for the current account, allowing companies in China to accept yuan payment for goods and services from offshore customers without any documentation or regulatory approval.
根据近期由银行委托的700名汇丰客户的一项调查，在香港所有国际公司的一半在香港和中国近三分之一的公司开始使用人民币进行跨界业务。调查的大约53％的中国企业表示，他们将提供在人民币结算的交易的5％折扣。
“企业不断寻求降低成本并找到竞争优势的方法，”汇丰康斯坦丁斯，汇丰银行贸易及应收账款负责人民负责人在亚太地区。“买方中国总共的5％储蓄可能是非常重要的。”
标准包租出版了人民币全球化指数，基于货币在贸易，外汇周转，离岸存款和离岸公司债券中的货币使用，以及其他事项。自银行于2010年12月推出以来，该指数已经飙升了Ninefold。
与人民币的不断增长的贸易角色相比,Beijing tightly controls the capital account, fearing that unregulated flows of investment funds could destabilize markets. The recent volatility in emerging markets underscored these concerns.
尽管如此，当局正在向前发展，以便自由化资本流动。6月，中国证券监督管理委员会大大扩大了外国基金经理对中国股票投资的配额。官员还在试验利率自由化。7月，政府允许银行根据市场需求设定贷款利率;以前，中央银行有效地规定了大多数贷款率。分析师希望当局在不久的将来将类似的自由汇总存款。官员认为，救取利率将更多的竞争注入金融市场，加强他们处理国际化的外部冲击的能力。
这些改革的结果最能在香港看到，前英国殖民地于1997年返回中国控制，并作为中国离岸金融中心。
自从2010年获得人民币进行交易结算的许可以来，香港的银行已经处理了令人印象深刻的流动。据汇丰银行称，2012年结算量增长了37％，达到2.6万亿元，增长了40％至1.7万亿元。作为本业务的副产品，香港居民和公司积累了世界上最大的人民币：8610亿元，包括储蓄账户69.8亿元，存款证书16.1亿元。
为了让这些持有者与这笔钱有关联，2011北京开始允许中国资产管理公司在香港进行业务，以筹集人民币资金投资内地股票市场。众所周知，人民币合格境外机构投资者计划（RMB qualified foreign institutional investor program）已于3月份扩大，包括中国银行和保险公司的子公司以及全球金融机构。截至7月，北京市已批准该项目投资额度1220亿元。亚博赞助欧冠
香港开始开发一系列其他人民币计价的金融产品，包括货币前进，保险产品和各种上市和非上市投资基金。该行动的主导份额是点心债券，70个证券价值在香港证券交易所共计300亿元交易。金融公司还提供以中国货币计价的八条交易所交易资金，总市场资本化超过290亿元。
花旗集团去年帮助中国资产管理有限公司最大的基金经理，设计中国AMC CSI 300指数ETF。该基金于2012年7月推出，截至8月下旬，今年下降了7.4％，而CSI 300指数下跌6.8％。“我们将中国和更广泛地将人民币视为我们的巨大潜力，”花旗的香港基金服务负责人Kevin Wong说。
每日人民币营业额在香港外汇市场现已超过100亿美元，银行引用欧元，英镑和其他主要亚洲货币以及美元的交叉税。
Daily volume on Hong Kong’s renminbi real-time gross settlement system, which supports the whole range of activities in the currency, hit 448 billion yuan at the end of June, up from just 5 billion yuan in late 2010. “While it is foreseeable that an increasing portion of mainland China’s trade and investments with the rest of the world will be conducted in RMB, the pace of the RMB’s internationalization would very much be a market-driven process going forward,” says Hong Kong Financial Secretary John Tsang.
据汇丰调查报道，在香港和中国大陆外，只有少数企业在人民币解决了中国贸易，但银行预计该股将迅速增长。目前的数据范围为新加坡和德国的9％的新加坡和U.K.9％，在澳大利亚的7％。“到2015年，汇丰银行的Fung表示，2015年，中国贸易的高达30％的贸易将以人民币”贸易为单位“。“这将在美国美元和欧元后获得人民币第三个全球货币。”
虽然它具有强劲的领先，但香港面临着人民币业务的发展。三月在新加坡的当局和中国的交换协议增加了一倍，达到300亿元。5月，新加坡的货币权威于中国当地分公司的工商银行推出了人民币清算设施。根据MAS的说法，新加坡公司在节省的储蓄中建立了1000亿元。
Within the first month of establishing renminbi clearing, Singaporean banks issued 2.5 billion yuan worth of bonds, dubbed Lion City bonds. Last month Jiangsu-based Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings), China’s second-largest builder of ships and oil rigs, became the first company to have its shares trade in both Singapore dollars and yuan on the local stock exchange.
伦敦也占据了人民币业务的份额。6月份，PBOC总督王某和英国银行州长州长签署了2000亿元交换协议。去年人民币贸易解决在伦敦市政府政策和资源委员会主席Mark Boleat的据Mark Boleat称，达到34亿元。“这很小，但起点就是在那里，”他说。“我们希望它进一步增长。”
China is developing domestic centers for cross-border renminbi business. Last year the State Council said it would create an onshore hub in Qianhai, a warehouse-packed peninsula in the southern city of Shenzhen, to conduct business with banks in Hong Kong, just across the border.
在上海，内地领先的金融中心，官员宣布形成一个类似于Qianhai的跨境金融区。官员们没有透露有关上海综合自由贸易区的许多细节，但银行家和分析师表示，它可能会专注于衍生品和商品。消息人士称，伦敦金属交易所是香港交易所和清算的子公司，首先是赢得允许建立金属的物理交付的仓库的许可。
Beijing officials have made it clear that Hong Kong will be the primary offshore renminbi center. Officials are working on a mutual recognition reform that will allow Hong Kong–based financial institutions — including many subsidiaries of global firms — to sell their global mutual funds and equity-linked products in China through Chinese financial institutions. In exchange, Chinese institutions would sell their renminbi products through the Hong Kong firms’ global networks.
Mutual recognition, which market participants say could be implemented as early as 2014, would be a sign that Beijing is committed to achieving full currency convertibility by the 2020 target date, says HSBC’s Fung. “We expect in as early as five years China’s RMB will move toward full convertibility,” she says.
UC Berkeley’s Eichengreen is skeptical that Beijing can move that fast. “It is a very ambitious target, to put it mildly,” he says. “Strengthening supervision and regulation, fully deregulating interest rates, adopting a fully flexible exchange rate and opening the capital account all in seven years?”
杭州浙江大学金融学教授钱彦民表示，金融市场自由化和人民币国际化的步伐最终将取决于中国经济的健康。他解释说，影子银行体系（包括国有企业放贷和所谓的财富管理产品（银行为规避监管限制而推销的投资产品）市场繁荣）的坏账增加，将减缓改革的步伐。“影子银行带来了一个非常严峻的挑战，”钱说。“中国的金融体系短期内不会崩溃，但可能需要多年的重组来清理混乱。”
即便如此，中国政策的方向是明确的，香港的Tsang主张人民币国际化有助于抵消近期经济放缓的影响。“人民币的使用将极大地促进中国与世界其他国家之间的双边贸易和投资流动，因为它降低了外汇风险和货币兑换成本，”他说。• •
雷曼的遗产：金融危机后5年来看看世界