European Union finance ministers and central bank governors were wrapping up a two-day informal meeting in France when Christine Lagarde, the French minister and host, offered a toast. It was Saturday, September 13, 2008, and although the economic outlook had deteriorated, the atmosphere was anything but gloomy. The officials discussed proposals for tighter banking supervision and agreed to adopt common reporting standards for EU financial institutions — in 2012. They also reviewed Slovakia’s progress toward joining the euro in three and a half months’ time.
“我们最终结束了一个美好的鸡尾酒，每个人都回家了，”57岁的拉加德召回。“第二天金融世界崩溃了。”
The failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings thrust Europe, and Lagarde, to center stage of the global financial crisis. The investment bank’s collapse sparked a worldwide financial panic and exposed Europe’s weaknesses — an undercapitalized banking sector and a monetary union without sufficient political backing — to the harsh judgments of globalized markets. Europe is still struggling to respond to the challenge. Lagarde, by contrast, has performed with aplomb, first as Finance minister, then, starting in 2011, as head of the International Monetary Fund.
At the Institute of International Finance’s October 11 dinner during the IMF’s 2008 annual meeting, Lagarde calmed a room of anxious bankers with her unscripted remarks. We know what’s at stake, andwe will do what’s necessary to save the financial system, she told the crowd, speaking on behalf of the Group of Seven countries, which France was chairing. When markets reopened two days later, the U.S. and EU nations announced plans to support their banks with hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of recapitalizations, deposit guarantees and nationalizations. The following month the Group of 20 nations endorsed a detailed blueprint for financial reform — a major turning point in the crisis.
“当时危机涉及的危机当时吞噬的事实是决定让人们聚集在一起，”拉加德说，在她在华盛顿的国际货币基金组织办事处采访时。
That sense of shared purpose has frayed to the breaking point since 2008. Whereas emerging-markets economies were quick to recover, the advanced economies have struggled to restore growth, and the euro area has flirted with disaster. Unconventional monetary policies by the Federal Reserve Board, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan have unleashed volatile capital flows and raised talk of currency wars. The mere mention of the Fed’s tapering its bond purchases has sent emerging-markets currencies and asset prices tumbling. It may not feel like 2008 all over again, but risk is on the rise.
拉加德对危险的警告一直是声乐。She worries that fatigued advanced nations will ease up on critical issues: tackling the problem of too-big-to-fail banks, pursuing pro-growth structural reforms in Europe and Japan, achieving medium-term fiscal solvency in the U.S. And she fears that leaders are ignoring tougher long-term challenges, such as restoring the link between growth and job creation and addressing the risks of climate change. “There is less collective drive to sort out and resolve the difficult issues,” she says.
拉加德在金融改革方面敦促监管机构和governments to be “vigilant and resistant” to the power of bank lobbying and stick with plans for higher capital requirements but implement them at a measured pace that doesn’t stifle bank lending. She acknowledges gaps on key issues, such as the leverage ratio — the U.S. is requiring big banks to hold capital equal to 5 percent of total assets, and Europe is mandating 3 percent — but believes those differences will narrow.
“在一天结束时，市场将决定，”她说。“我的亨希是最终的标准最终会占上风。”
在欧洲，拉加德对国际货币基金组织在欧元区救助部门的角色上，面临没有少量怀疑论。7月，巴西的执行董事弃权从最新分期付款投票到希腊的最新援助，这是基金在糟糕之后抛出良好的钱。拉加德坚持认为该机构在欧洲起到了重要作用。“无论威胁到威胁国际金融稳定的金融危机，基金的任务和任务是均缴纳的授权和使命，”她说。
该基金承认错误。在4月份的一篇论文中，它承认它已经低估了财政紧缩对希腊经济的影响，自2007年峰值以来，产量下降了近25％，失业率飙升至27％。“我们不断地学习，因为我们此刻在非常不明的领土上，”拉加德说。“刺激生长所需的财政整合和结构措施之间的合适组合是艰难的。”
Lagarde dismisses the idea of a Greek exit from the euro, though. The country’s competitiveness is finally improving, and growth will return if Athens steps up the pace of reform. “What’s the alternative?” she asks. “The Greeks want in their clear majority to stay within the euro zone, and they want to be part of the European project.”
对于更广泛的欧元区，拉加德队将银行工会引用为大块未完成的业务。Europe needs a single resolution mechanism and a common backstop to support the banking industry, she says, and the ECB needs to conduct a rigorous review of banks’ asset quality before taking over as the bloc’s banking supervisor next year: “Otherwise you’re asking people to marry in the dark. They don’t know what the bride looks like.”
至于全球经济，拉加德担心量化宽松的结束将掀起新的冲击。她说，本伯南克的美联储可能暗示锥度债券购买是为了提醒政策制定者对金融市场过度风险风险的危险的“伪装祝福”，但它已将货币从巴西到印度尼西亚派遣。暴风雨可能会来。如果他们这样做，拉加加德和基金，借给贷款资源的1万亿美元，将在行动中间非常多。
Illustration by Bernd Schifferdecker
雷曼的遗产：金融危机后5年来看看世界
- 雷曼5年后，没有人可以宣布金融体系安全
- 欧洲银行，重组缓慢，今天提出了系统的风险
- 随着全球流动性干燥，新兴市场面临挑战
- 作为对锥度的美联储准备，是世界准备好高级的费率吗？
- 中国利用危机，将人民币定位为美元的潜在竞争对手