Fed Delay Spurs Market Disarray

美国联邦储备委员会将接下来是什么？从5月开始暗示中央银行尽早开始阐述其上个月的债券购买计划的官员开始阐述了这一问题，这是对投资者的思想。提供了国内经济表现出迹象可持续增长。逐渐变锥度会慢慢开始，100亿美元到150亿美元的削减，或者政策制定者会更积极地移动吗？不确定性一直在保持资金经理。

There’s no relief in sight given the surprise announcement after last month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting that the bankers don’t plan to do anything — at least not yet.

“Many clients felt the message and rationale were not clear, especially since there had been so much talk from Fed officials about tapering,” reports Jonathan Rosenzweig, Citi’s New York–based head of Americas equity research. “Some investors expressed concern that the Fed knows something that others don’t about the state of the recovery or, at the other extreme, around the long-term inflation risks associated with an extended period of ultraloose policy.”

Brett Hodess，RosenzWeig在美国银行Merrill Lynch的交战人员，听到了类似的投诉。“许多客户受到美联储的沟通不良，对其在指导市场的信誉表示担忧，”他说。

投资组合管理人员最初将缓刑视为庆祝事业，派遣道琼斯工业平均平均飙升超过147分，在那天的纪录15,676.94。然而，由于投资者考虑了维持现状的影响：美联储认为，美国经济仍然不足以站稳地依然坚定的信念，令人兴奋地持续了很长时间实际上，政策制定者对今年的实际国内产品增长的预测削减了预测，并在2013年将其低端值从2.3％重置为2％，2014年的3％至2.9％。

相关内容全美 研究团队 名人堂October 7, 2013全美 销售团队October 8, 2013全美Trading TeamOctober 8, 2013America's Top Corporate Access Providers 2013October 16, 2013

They also predicted that inflation would remain far below their target of 2 percent for this year. Last month the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 1.5 percent in the 12 months through August, down sharply from the 2 percent rate recorded for the 12 months through July.“We think Bernanke offered good reasons for the decision in his press conference,” contends Steven Pollard, director of U.S. equity research at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. “We agree that some of the key economic indicators recently have disappointed, that financial conditions has tightened somewhat and that uncertainties and downside risks remain in the weeks ahead on the fiscal front. Under these circumstances, it was not a bad move to delay the taper and await more evidence that the recovery is on solid ground.”

Further consideration of its stance prompted market participants to speculate anew as to when the Fed would begin cutting back on quantitative easing. Some think it could happen as early as this month; others, in December; and still others believe that the central bank won’t act until after January, to give chairman Ben Bernanke’s successor time to settle in to his or her new post.

All-America Spotlight

本杰明 Swinburne. François Trahan. Howard 陈

John DiFucci 贾斯汀 邮政 标记 Schoenebaum.

Matthew 老板 蒂姆纳 Tanners

与此同时，不确定性可能仍然是当天的顺序。反对这样的背景投资组合管理人员预计卖方会让他们了解最新的发展，并引导他们走向市场上最好的戏剧。他们说没有公司提供比J.P. Morgan更有用的见解，这引领亚博赞助欧冠连续第四年的全美研究团队连续第四年。该银行索赔47个职位，超过2012年，其分析师的分析师65个部门的第19位。这是任何其他卖方机构所捕获的第一名饰面数量的两倍多。

BOFA Merrill从第三名到第二个，但它谦虚的攀登允许公司令人印象深刻的收益;它拿起七个职位，总共41.摩根士丹利也推进了一个梯级，至3号，即使它的团队总数在33次不变，那么巴克莱在失去八个斑点后，巴克莱在第二到第四次，将其留下了31次. Deutsche Bank’s total also falls, from 32 to 28; nonetheless, it repeats in fifth place.

花旗是顶级公司中最大的上升迈运人，在将团队增加三个职位后，从第8号到第6号跳跃到26号。

这些结果反映了近990家公司的3,300名投资专业人员的意见，近990家公司统计监督美国股票估计为10.5万亿美元。查看全部2013 All-America Research Team排行。

对上个月的公告的分析师反应从支持性地漠不关心 - 甚至公开至关重要。“这可能是过去十年中喂养的最大面对面，”观察François Trahan, who is No. 1 in Portfolio Strategy for a second straight year (and for the seventh time since 2005) and is also a runner-up in Quantitative Research. “They missed a great opportunity, since tapering was largely priced in.”

As for the bankers’ belief that the economic recovery is still too fragile, “they are wrong,” he declares. Policymakers are looking at lagging indicators — GDP growth and inflation rates, for example — when they should focus instead on such leading indicators as housing starts, inventory levels and manufacturing activity, he says.

基于纽约的基于纽约的研究精品的基石宏的创始合伙人Trahan，于4月份开幕，指向支持他的立场的数据。上个月，全国家庭建筑物/井法律房屋市场指数达到了八岁的高位，虽然亚利桑那州的供应管理研究所的报道同样展示了以最快的速度发展服务部门的发展同期 - 约26个月以最快的步伐和制造业。

“Consumer confidence is just shy of a five-year high,” he adds. “What else do they want?”

A more-promising labor market, for starters. The employment outlook “is far from what all of us would like to see,” Bernanke said at his press conference following the September meeting.

“They want more jobs? They’re about to get them,” Trahan insists. Figures from the National Federation of Independent Business, a Nashville, Tennessee–based organization that lobbies on behalf of small companies, “just popped higher, so jobs are about to rebound,” he contends.

美联储的决定推迟圆锥形只创建confusion, the strategist maintains. “Utilities — a sector we do not like — rallied for two days, then went back to original trends,” Trahan says. “It was more noise than anything.”

Sectors he does recommend include consumer discretionary, owing to the ongoing low-inflation environment, and financial services, where growth is likely to remain robust thanks to the continuation of loose monetary policy.

Credit Suisse’s霍华德陈，他连续第二年捕捉到经纪人，资产管理人员和交易所的顶级地点，同意后者，但表示金钱经理应该扣紧，因为骑行不会顺利。

“重新的不确定性应在近期推动近期市场波动，”基于纽约的分析师预测。在过去两年中，金融服务股票，在过去的两年里，将继续做得很好，但投资者必须“留守纪律，更有选择性和弯曲以更具优质的偏见到该部门内的特殊公司。”

One of his preferred names is CME Group, largely on the strength of the Chicago-based exchange operator’s leading interest rate complex. “The stock should be a safe haven and provide good total return over the next few months,” Chen says.

Also recommended: New York–based alternative asset managers Apollo Global Management and Blackstone Group, and Carlyle Group of Washington. “We see strong secular, market and regulatory tailwinds driving exceptional growth; increasing earnings and dividend expectations as the better-managed firms progress through the value-creation and -harvesting cycles; and still highly attractive valuations,” he explains.

In addition, Goldman Sachs Group of New York and Boston’s State Street Corp. “are among the best positioned to participate in a better revenue backdrop given their discipline in controlling expenses and managing capital,” Chen says.

Consumers are also keeping a more careful watch on where their money is going — and the Fed’s concerns about economic growth may spur even more caution, according to J.P. Morgan’s马修老板，谁从亚军螺栓，以索取零售/百拓和百货商店的第1号申请，并在服装，鞋类和纺织品中得分。

虽然我们相信消费者仍然有弹性，但我们在绝平的酌情支出上看到了一个回调 - 即非温和期 - 在纽约的创新和新的时期，以赢家和输家分开的创新和新态度。““Importantly, back-to-school spending has illustrated an 80 percent correlation to holiday sales historically, which — when combined with a volatile spending backdrop and increased media coverage of the economic motivation behind the Fed’s recent decision — raises a level of concern heading into the holiday season.”

Last month the International Council of Shopping Centers, a New York–based trade association that tracks consumer spending, reported that same-store sales rose 3.6 percent year-over-year in August, far below the 6 percent increase during the same back-to-school shopping month in 2012.

“We continue to recommend ‘best-in-class’ companies with strong management teams and fortresslike balance sheets, which we believe is the best way to weather choppy waters through year-end,” he explains.

Dollar General Corp. of Goodlettsville, Tennessee, and Chesapeake, Virginia–based Dollar Tree “are the best ways to play the discount space today,” he contends, largely on the strength of their “easy compares”; that is, the companies shouldn’t experience much difficulty meeting or beating last year’s numbers.

老板的同事John DiFucci谁在软件中首次从第三名到胜利者的圈子中解除在胜利者的圈子中，他表示，他的客户对QE延伸的新闻更积极地作出反应。“一般的结论是，这将继续保持利率在历史上较低的水平，这对股票有益，”他说。“因此，任何有关潜在负面的人，在下半场市场的潜在负面，无法预测的扰动 - 特别是估值水平 - 现在不太关注。”

这并不意味着环境被视为无忧无虑。“我们继续怀疑联邦政府是否可能挫败信息技术支出，”他解释道。“但大多数软件公司似乎认为事情会很好。”

联邦公开市场委员会会议前,DiFucci预测太瓦o of three issues weighing on the market would subside in the second half, and he stands by that forecast. “We expect stability in IT spending in Europe after a difficult first half, and relative stability in financial services — perhaps even modest improvement given the market performance — because everyone feels better when the market goes up,” the New York–based researcher observes.

The third concern? A slowdown in government spending. “This could be exacerbated given that the September quarter is the federal government’s fiscal fourth quarter, which typically sees a seasonal uptick in spending, and the budget issues currently being discussed for the next fiscal year,” DiFucci explains.

他对赛门铁克公司，山景，基于加利福尼亚州的安全软件开发商;和纽约的CA Technologies，IT管理解决方案提供商。他说：“他们仍然有吸引力的估值，这降低了这个丰富的市场风险，”他说。

上个月的重磅炸群岛也没什么改变互联网景观。“美联储的决定没有改变本集团的基本价值框架，”该部门的第1分析师表示，“贾斯汀邮政of BofA Merrill. “We continue to be constructive on the potential benefit of fund flows into equities, especially for high-growth companies, and the Fed’s decision may contribute to this trend.” The San Francisco–based researcher, who took second place in 2012, prefers companies with high exposure to the growing mobile market. One of his top picks is Facebook, the social-media behemoth headquartered in Menlo Park, California.

Morgan Stanley’sBenjamin Swinburne.，世卫组织从第二位推进阵容，在媒体中第一次引导阵容，并在媒体的第2号重复，也看到没有理由改变他的前景。“这次推迟主要被接收为电缆和卫星公司的看涨，”他说。“另外，鉴于集团上面的平均水平，活动低于低价的活动同样看涨。”

The New York–based analyst has overweight ratings on three stocks: cable services providers Liberty Global of the U.K. and New York–based Time Warner Cable; and DirecTV, a digital entertainment distributor headquartered in El Segundo, California.

“Liberty Global has the ability to drive 15 to 20 percent free-cash-flow-per-share growth thanks to its solid broadband revenue growth across its European cable footprint, merger synergies with [the U.K.’s] Virgin Media, and the benefit of financial leverage and attractive tax assets,” he says. Time Warner is a likely beneficiary of cable consolidation in the U.S., Swinburne contends, while DirecTV “is the least expensive stock in the group despite its healthy organic growth.”

量化宽松对ISI集团涵盖的公司来说几乎没有结果Mark Schoenebaum., who captures a ninth straight victory in Biotechnology and leaps from third to claim top honors for the first time in Pharmaceuticals/Major.

“美联储决定对我的股票没有重大影响，”Schoenebaum说。“药品，尤其是生物技术股票，如果他们为不良疾病发明了新的和令人兴奋的药物。”

The past two years have seen a record number of new treatments reach the market, the New York–based analyst says, which is why the companies are doing so well. Biotech stocks soared more than 48 percent in the first eight months of this year; big pharma, about 18 percent. During the same period the S&P 500 gained 14.5 percent.

“一些投资者认为，过去几年的”需要产量“是股息支付药物股票的主要司机，但我倾向于不同意，”Schoenebaum解释道。“我相信这些股票已经做得很好，因为巨大的成本控制和改善新药管道。一旦美联储实际确实开始逐渐变细，我的论文就会真正进行测试。“

The theories of other analysts will undergo similar scrutiny when QE moves toward Q.E.D. Until then, investors will continue to wonder what the Fed’s next move will be. • •

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