Expectations for outsize gains on the downtrodden shares of J.C. Penney Co. purchased by major hedge fund firms have deflated like a punctured balloon.
In a September 19 interview with亚博赞助欧冠那凯尔贝斯那founder and principal of Dallas-based Hayman Capital Management, one of the hedge fund firms holding J.C. Penney equity, said, “We’re not investing in a turnaround. We’re investing in a stabilization.” Hayman has also taken a position in J.C. Penney’s debt, selling credit default swaps written against the company’s five-year bonds.
One week later, on September 26, hedge fund managers learned that their stakes in the Plano, Texas–based retailer would be diluted when J.C. Penney made the surprise announcement that it was issuing 84 million new shares, raising total shares outstanding to 220.6 million. The new equity issue, which priced on September 27, raised $785 million and diluted existing shareholders by 38 percent, sent J.C. Penney’s share price falling from $10.42 to below $8 a share. (It closed October 17 at $7.35.) By comparison, J.C. Penney shares were trading at more than $17 in July and nearly $27 a year ago.
“我们真的很沮丧。我们不相信他们需要提高资本，“低音在CNBC上说J.C.Penney10月9日“显然，这不是因为他们想要 - 但是因为市场曾经说过他们想要他们。”
在过去六个月内购买了大型赌注的投资者的阵容包括几个广泛的对冲基金级数。索罗斯基金管理董事长乔治索罗斯于4月15日举行了7.9％的股权，在J.C.Penney的董事会被解雇了首席执行官Ron Johnson后，用他的前任迈伦（Mike）Ullman取代了他。约翰逊曾担任Apple的零售商店连锁的零售店，凭借J.C.Penney对折扣优惠券和销售定价来吸引客户。
该策略推出了百货商店连锁的现有客户，未能诱惑大量的新产品，将公司送入尾班。索罗斯支持J.C.Penney董事长托马斯·埃姆斯·埃姆曼·乌利曼与激动人心投资者威廉·奥克曼，创始人兼首席执行官对冲基金公司潘兴广场资本管理。8月27日Ackman售出了Pershing Square的整个位置 - 3900万股，然后是18％的股份 - 5.54亿美元，估计亏损5亿美元。其他对冲基金管理人员加强了购买股票，希望能从零售商的反弹中受益。为其部分，海曼资本持有了1140万股J.C.Penney，持续5.2％的股份。（阅读更多： ”廉价狩猎在J.C. Penney“）
另一个Ullman Ally，Larry Robbins，纽约对冲基金公司Glenview Capital Management的创始人跳进来购买一大块Ackman的股票。Glenview Capital持续加倍J.C. Penney的持股，达到2010万份，并将其股权从3.4％提高到9.1％。这使得Glenview成为零售商中最大的单一股东，即使在新的股权问题之后。
Richard Perry，基于纽约的Perry Corp.的创始人和总裁，从Citigroup二次发行于Ackman的股票购买了300万股，提高了他的对冲基金公司的股份为1500万股，或8.9％。在今年早些时候从Johnson的Johnson的欧贝斯特之后，Perry跳起来增加了他在百货商店连锁店的地位，购买了1200万股，股权为7.3％。（然而，（最近，Perry在9月30日销售了900万份，销售了900万股，将他公司的股份为3.3％。）
Ackman的盟友Steven Roth董事长沃尔德诺省Realty Trust董事长，是一项公开交易的房地产投资信托，辞去了J.C.Pinney董事会的终局，9月13日辞职，透露了沃尔诺多的意图销售所有1340万股所拥有的股票。罗斯在2011年初加入了J.C.Penney董事会董事会的罗斯，3月份售出了1000万股沃尔尔诺·沃尔诺多股份。Vornado Realty在J.C.Penney的损失可能与Ackman的竞争对手。
As the battle between Ackman and J.C. Penney played out over the summer, the cost of credit default swap protection on the company’s bonds rose sharply. Owners of J.C. Penney bonds feared they were facing an eminent default because rumors were swirling that commercial lender “CIT was backing away from J.C. Penney’s small vendors,” Bass said in his September 19 interview. J.C. Penney did not do a good job of handling public relations around the issue, he contends. “CIT was only backing away from a couple of small vendors that had their own problems,” Bass says. “They actually redoubled their efforts in supporting the big vendors at J.C. Penney.”
市场分析师不确定新的股权问题是否对J.C.Pinney的前景决定了。股票发行前面是来自Goldman Sachs Group Credit分析师Kristen McDuffy的严格报告，他发出了表现不佳的评级和J.C.Penney Bond Holders通过信用违约掉期购买保护保护。然而，该报告假设J.C.佩尼的未来流动性需求将通过新的债务问题满足，并没有评估股权将提出新资金的情景。（高盛拒绝接受麦克风采访的要求。）信用报告在股权发行前发出股份。
许多分析师将新的股权问题视为零售商的展望较低，因为公司燃烧通过自由现金流速度快于预测和消费者信心增益。“它给了一些时间，”纽约的证券公司最具基金集团高级消费者零售分析师Rick Snyder说，从买入持有的股票下调了股票。“也许加薪满足他们的一些成员，例如供应商，”斯奈德说，“但它肯定没有为股东做任何事情。”
一些市场观察者认为，挣扎的零售商是正确的。“I do not think J.C. Penney would have issued the latest equity if they did not need the cash, and I do not think it was a large surprise to the market,” says Ken Murphy, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Standard Life Investments in Boston. “The action removes the near-term concerns the market had with liquidity, most likely until sometime in 2015.” Snyder, by contrast, is not convinced that J.C. Penney’s recent equity offering satisfies the company’s cash flow needs through the 2014 holiday shopping season.
虽然新的股权问题通常会提高公司债务持有的前景，但J.C.Penney债务图片在其新问题后恶化。这部分是部分原因是零售商在其现金储备速度速度比预期更快地宣布。该公司表示，预计截至年底的信贷额度为13亿美元，而不是8月份的15亿美元预测。这笔ReforeCast特别痛苦，因为J.C.Pinney似乎在5月份的流动资金需要充分准备时，当它首先与Goldman Sachs一起使用其1,100家零售店作为抵押品的抵押品。
“Typically, when you have that type of equity infusion, it should be credit-enhancing,” says Monica Aggarwal, a debt analyst who covers J.C. Penney at Fitch Ratings, which on October 2 lowered its bond rating on the retailer from B-minus with a negative outlook to CCC. Aggarwal estimates the total cash burn in 2013 will hit $3 billion and that J.C. Penney will have $2 billion to $2.1 billion in liquidity at end-year 2013, leaving the retailer with a potential shortfall for the 2014 holiday shopping season.
Aggarwal contends that J.C. Penney will have to push its overall sales into the $13.5 billion range, a substantial improvement over 2013’s $12 billion. The company would also do well to expand its gross margin, presently stuck at 30 percent, back to around the 40 percent mark, according to Aggarwal. The need for additional cash will ultimately depend on J.C. Penney’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. If the retailer needs more cash next year, Aggarwal expects that it “could come in the form of a convertible preferred type of debt.”
股权问题后，标准普尔维持J.C.佩尼的信用评级为CCC的低信任展望。“它真的反映了该公司在过去15个月内的表现是我们最近历史上最糟糕的历史之一，”S＆P信用分析师David Kuntz说。“对于一家公司来说，彻底改变其商品和产品的战略，并疏远客户群而不是先用客户测试，是一种闻所未闻的。”
王桂萍承认J.C. Penney开始hold steady, but S&P is maintaining its negative outlook because the company is not generating sufficient free cash flows to cover operations and capital expenditures. “Until that situation is resolved, that’s going to drive how we think about the company,” Kuntz says. Right now J.C. Penney is a long way from covering operations and capital expenditures, and that is unlikely to change for the next few quarters, according to Kuntz. The store’s fourth-quarter 2013 performance stands to be critical.
“如果通过第四季度大幅改善的事情，它可以更多地购买时间，”康茨说。他认为，大型销售和优惠券可折扣可以再次为J.C. Penney工作：“它为梅西的工作。”
根据Maxim Group的Snyder，零售零售和消费者信心一般削弱。“商场里没有人，”他说。这可能部分解释为什么J.C.Penney现在决定为新股权而不是稍后的提议，他解释道。“[零售业]的环境在那里罕不无章。”
杰夫卡特是海曼首都公司固定收益总监，认为J.C.帕尼的稳定性是一种可能性。“现实是客户没有死，”他说。“客户只是在别的地方购物。我们认为，通过促进促销策略，营销策略，适当的商品，我们可以以相对较短的顺序吸引这些客户。“
Cate可能是某种东西。9月份J.C.佩尼的商店的销售额仅在上年下降4％，比8月高出5.8％。9月在线销售额同比增长25.3％。Experian Marketing Services Credits J.C.佩尼在返校销售中的飙升，帮助公司接管沃尔玛商店的2号在线零售点，并提前迈出了梅西和目标。对于像海曼的对冲基金投资者？Bass和Glenview的罗宾斯，这些改进可能有助于缓解J.C.佩尼最近的股权提供的刺痛。
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