这些日子，基金经理在欧洲庆祝很多。该地区的许多股市在2013年曾在2013年签订了最佳收益，由希腊（上涨39.9％），芬兰（35.5％），爱尔兰（32.9％）和荷兰（23％）。总体而言，欧洲股市去年飙升了18％以上，有强烈的迹象表明浪涌不会很快结束。
“我们认为，2014年将成为股票的另一个美好的一年 - 增长在欧洲回到欧洲，因为财政阻力是褪色和融资条件改善，”Paul Huxford指导欧洲股票在伦敦的覆盖范围。“周边君主传播保持缩小，银行正在看到更有利的资金成本，私人需求已降至低水平。该地区提供强劲的盈利增长潜力，这可能会推动今年股市。“
投资者affirmed this optimistic view last month when they allocated the lion’s share of money pulled from volatile emerging markets — roughly $4 billion of a total $6.5 billion in the third week of January alone — to European equity funds, according to EPFR Global, a fund-tracking service headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Also last month the International Monetary Fund raised its 2014 forecast for real gross domestic product growth across the euro zone, to 1 percent, while noting that the recovery is uneven, deflation remains a regional threat, and Southern Europe is still “the more worrisome part of the world economy,” as the Washington-based organization’s chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, put it.
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All-Europe Spotlight
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西蒙格林威尔于6月份成为欧洲，中东和非洲研究总监，在伦敦美林林基银行，股票相似担忧。“我们的主要问题是增长 - 或者缺乏它，”他说。他的公司今年的欧元区的GDP扩建率也为1％，但最前面的数字掩盖了宽泛的波动。他的经济学家项目将在U.K.和1.6％的德国今年增加2.7％，但西班牙的0.8％。
“我们比西班牙的一些评论员更加谨慎，”格林威尔承认。“这是最受积极和消极的方式暴露于全球增长的市场。如果您关注的增长，那么西班牙是我们不那么建设性的市场。“
J.P. Morgan Cazenove的船员持有相反的观点。“该地区预计将从去年的0.4％的增长率加速今年的速度为1％，我们认为周边市场 - 意大利和西班牙 - 将跑赢，”赫克福德说。“他们的估值仍然具有重要的投资潜力，并且在外围地点进一步紧缩可能引起核心国家的更快。我们的经济学家预测意大利和西班牙将在GDP增长中提供最大的波动，这将有助于收益强劲反弹。“
Deutsche银行研究人员同样乐观。“我们预计会有更大的经济稳定性，在伦敦EMEA股权研究副主任Jonathan Jayarajan报道，尤其是西班牙，特别是西班牙。“通货紧缩仍然是一个重大威胁。但是，如果看起来很可能会化，我们认为欧洲中央银行将准备参与量化的宽松和负存款率。“
一个关于每个人都可以同意的一个问题是2014年将是挥发性的。中国的增长放缓仍然是担心，许多新兴市场经济的稳定性也是如此。上个月从经济学局宣布，美国产量以第四季度的3.2％的速度增加了3.2％，这令人担忧联邦储备委员会将加速其退出其量化宽松计划的步伐;去年，这种猜测在新兴市场推出了新兴市场的抛售。
许多投资者依赖销售方的指导，帮助他们评估每个新的发展并适当地定位他们的投资组合，他们表示，他们的分析师提供最有用的见解是Bofa Merrill，其中突破了两个地点领导2014年全欧洲研究的地方团队，亚博赞助欧冠在该地区最佳销售方股权分析师的第29届年度排名。该公司捕获32个团队职位，比去年增加了五个。Deutsche Bank, which topped the roster from 2011 through 2013, drops only one notch even though it loses ten positions, leaving it with 28. Close behind is J.P. Morgan Cazenove, which returns to the top three for the first time since 2010. Its total increases by two, to 27.
Holding steady in fourth place despite a loss of three positions is Morgan Stanley, with a new total of 23. UBS, which came in second overall in 2013, plunges to fifth place after its total plummets from 33 to 20.
这些结果反映了大约800个机构的大约2,200名货币管理者的意见，这些机构集中在欧洲股票中统计地监督估计的6万亿美元。
随着欧元区的发展，经济稳定性，金钱经理的研究需求一直在变化。“通过主权危机，国家投资对投资者来说非常重要。The systemic risk associated with a potential debt default and/or the breakup of the currency area would have had large and variable costs across countries,” explains Vincent Laurencin, London-based head of research at Exane BNP Paribas, this year’s biggest upward mover among the top firms. It bolts from ninth place to sixth after picking up four positions, for a total of 15. “The banking sector would obviously be at the center of such concerns, but the broader impact on economic activity and domestic government policy made it impossible for investors to ignore ‘country of domicile’ when such systemic risk was perceived to be relevant.”
他补充说，由于政策制定者已经采取了必要的步骤，以减少特定的国家风险，“这些钟摆已经回到基于部门的研究。”
That’s certainly true with regard to consumer stocks, affirms Richard Chamberlain, who took charge of BofA Merrill’s Retailing/General team in 2012 and this year guides it up one level to No. 1. “We have seen more interest in our sector over the past 12 months, owing to an improved consumer outlook in the U.K. driven by employment and housing, as the sector is steadily globalizing and as investors have been attracted to stocks with a strong online growth story,” he says.
总部位于伦敦的分析师和他的同事我dentified ten key themes for 2014, including more robust sales of hardlines in the U.K., stronger domestic consumption in Germany and increased traffic at discount retailers throughout the region. Rising disposable income and an uptick in investment should propel consumer spending in Germany, Chamberlain believes. Companies likely to benefit from these trends include apparel retailers Gerry Weber International, a domestic concern, and Sweden’s Hennes & Mauritz, where roughly 60 percent of annual sales are attributable to German shoppers.
“我们赞成H＆M改善的报价，暴露于改善德国消费者，可能的巨额销售额和强大的欧元，电子商务追赶，”他解释道。“在U.K.我们喜欢[服装零售商]接下来进行在线势头，空间引导上的向上压力和更具竞争力的定价。”
然而，据Luca Solca称，当达到高端零售时，需求正在减少，他首次在奢侈品中飞行Exane BNP Paribas团队。伦敦的研究人员报告，“我在过去几周内看到了我的部门的投资者兴趣。”“经过十年的表现优惠，奢侈品股票已经滞后了几个月，在市场上的酌情需求的关切。我正在敦促投资者预计该部门更大的恐惧，并选择具有更好的结构前景和更高概率的公司在中期进入投资资本回报。“他目前的建议包括瑞士珠宝和守护者CIE。FINDICIOèRACHEMONT和SWATCH集团。
许多公司在他的覆盖范围内需要重新考虑他们的商业策略。Solca说：“在中国开业新店的简易增长的时代已经结束了大多数品牌，”Solca说。“奢侈的球员不能再忽视在线等增长机会，将特许经营商和商店集成到直接零售或容忍其投资组合中的表现形式的骑士。”
根据Victoria Lee的说法，公司绩效的对比也是休闲与酒店部门的主题，他们将巴克莱队伍从第二名申请首次出现在名单上。“我们今天看到了对该行业的大量兴趣。我认为整体上的投资者想要恢复，休闲是一个非常伟大的部门，因为许多这些公司的周期性暴露和高级齿轮，“她解释道。“我们的偏好是为此主题播放酒店名称。”有利的股票包括雅高，一家酒店运营商，总部位于法国，以及基于U.k.的酒店服务提供商Whitbread。
基于伦敦的分析师补充说，整个地区康复速度不均匀通知她的团队的选择。“欧洲内部存在真正的变体，”李指出。“我对U.K.，特别是商业投资 - LED恢复非常兴奋，这是酒店的关键，而我对法国有更为温和的期望。”
罗伯特厂，J.P. Morgan Cazenove团队的领导者在伦敦，从亚军一直到达商业和就业服务的一路，也强调，他的部门的公司的表现将因其对特定市场的暴露而差异很大。“随着投资者希望从政府试图引入更高效率的削减支出，”我们正在看到与公共部门有关的股票有很多兴趣。“这一新重点的受益者可能包括基于人均的u.k.的服装，该服装提供后台行政和业务处理服务，以及拘留中心，监狱和学校的运营商。
“A lot of public sector functions are being outsourced to the private sector for the first time,” he adds. “For example, the U.K. government recently outsourced the training for the civil service to the private sector and is also in the process of outsourcing probation services.”
Geographic factors also influence the recommendations of Mark Troman’s group at BofA Merrill, which climbs one rung to lead the lineup in Capital Goods for the first time since 2010. “The engineering sector has generated a lot of investor interest for a number of years, probably because the bulk of companies tend to add value through the economic cycle,” says Troman, who works out of London. “Most investor questions are centered on end markets — that is, where are the best growth trends? As growth is expected to be still quite low by historical standards, we think companies that can restructure effectively or have options to use their balance sheets may do better.” Siemens has been a team favorite since last March, in large part because of the German engineering company’s robust earnings growth and management’s commitment to improving margins.
Troman和队友看到乐观的原因the year ahead. “There are some encouraging signs that European industrial output should improve, most notably OECD lead indicators and purchasing manager’s indexes,” he points out.
奥斯瓦尔德克林特那who shepherds the Sanford C. Bernstein team to its first appearance in the winner’s circle in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, is equally sanguine about his sector. “I watch Europe from an energy-demand perspective, which is a strong indicator of economic growth,” he says. Regional demand for natural gas rose year-over-year in 2013, while appetite for oil products was flat. These developments “stand in sharp contrast to the double-digit declines we have experienced since 2009, and I do see a path to stability at the very least.”
伦敦的船长队长致力于关注，即使许多人还没准备好进入商品价格的风险，也不准备投资。“I’m urging investors to look at changes in signaling and actions of integrated oil companies over the last 12 to 18 months, which I think are encouraging, such as a better focus on short-term performance measures, less focus on long-dated volume targets and better allocation of their hefty capital budgets toward the best return projects,” he says. BG Group, a U.K.-based provider of natural gas, is among the team’s current favorites.
投资者在全球危机开始以来，一直在对金融服务部门的发展方案进行制表，但并非所有行业的各个部分都受到平等影响，观察Bruce Hamilton，他的摩根士丹利队在1号庆祝其第二次直线外观专业和其他金融。“鉴于后者对法规，主权强调等更大敏感，欧洲银行业，据欧洲银行业可能会较少，也许较少的资金部门可能会遭受的较少，但也许较少。”“在保证金中，我会说我已经看到了更多的投资者兴趣，因为该部门的辅助改善了周期性动态。”
Forthcoming regulatory changes will also affect the companies this team covers. An update of the European Union’s Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II is in the process of being finalized, with implications for investors in over-the-counter derivatives as well as those that engage in electronic and high frequency trading, among other issues. Plus, the EU’s European Market Infrastructure Regulation, which also deals with OTC derivatives as well as counterparties, should be implemented in full late next year or early in 2015. “We expect that will benefit the London Stock Exchange [Group], which has been our top pick in the space since last summer, given the requirement for clearing of OTC trades,” he says.
增加的监管可能进一步降低投资者焦虑，因此促进股票的促进，但是市场观察员指出，许多变量仍然可以停止恢复。
“The U.S. economic recovery warrants and will likely get a higher cost of capital via rising Treasury yields at a time when economic conditions in large parts of the globe do not warrant a rise in ‘the global cost of capital,’” says Exane’s Laurencin, who leads teams that finish first for coverage of France and runner-up for reporting on Iberia. “The channels through which this risk may be crystallized are many. But whether it’s capital repatriation from emerging markets forcing tighter monetary policy onto the current-account deficit economies, or even a drain in global liquidity that challenges the benign conditions in Europe’s peripheral bond markets, the consequences have the potential of causing significant economic and market damage at some point this year. We have to recognize we are on the verge of exiting from a period of extreme monetary policy stimulus — and that process is fraught with execution pitfalls for global policymakers.”
尽管有一些地区成功案例，世界市场仍然非常交流，加入J.P. Morgan Cazenove的Huxford，他还领导了一个为U.K.覆盖范围的亚军来保护亚军。“今年，我们认为，市场运动将取决于扎实的全球增长能够促进愈合，”他说。“在发达国家经济体中的治疗依赖于较强劲的需求增长是否会引起更强的供应 - 这表明投资，生产力和劳动力供应的速度更快，允许利用率在低通胀环境中规范化。”
伦敦德意志银行全球股权研究的联合主管Richard Smith认为它会。他说：「信贷周期及持续低价持续低价应使区域经济促进高于预期的需求，并在每股收益的预测中受益。“这应该推动更多的投资者信念，即在自下而上的水平上感受到改善的宏观图片，甚至可能甚至通过2014年推动一些升级。”