许多新兴市场于2014年开始发动动荡,当地货币波动和政治风险普通线程。这些担忧是在去年春天晚些时候在联邦储备的逐渐减少其定量宽松计划的逐渐变化的背后。即便如此,一些市场观察员表示,机构投资者可能已准备好增加其对投资新兴市场债务的债亚博赞助欧冠券基金的拨款(也可以看看 ”最近的股票市场波动可能是味道的味道“)。
据芝加哥晨星的高级共同基金分析师Karin Anderson称,这些资金对基本一级仍然有吸引力,因为他们为投资者提供了高收益率和货币多样化。此外,她说,发行政府债券的许多新兴市场都有低债务水平,为发达国家提供了一个具有厚重债务负荷的比较优势。
还有另一个有利于新兴国家的长期趋势。亚博赞助欧冠根据Michael Gomez,全球新兴 - 市场投资组合管理部门迈克尔·戈麦斯(Michael Gomez)的说法,机构投资者正在“寻求增加”他们投资的资金的份额。太平洋投资管理公司的团队(PIMCO.)在加利福尼亚州纽波特海滩。尽管Gomez称之为“周期性的热情”枯萎这些市场,“美国,欧洲和美国的主要机构sovereign wealth fundsand many of our clients across Asia and the Middle East are certainly thinking about increasing allocations to the asset class, and we see some of that coming through.”
Will亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者今年涌入新兴债券?毕竟,在2013年第四季度,据基于Marietta,Georgia的数据研究公司,在2013年的第四季度,这些资金占据了128亿美元的资产,该资金持有了3850亿美元的资产。。“我认为一些人,波动率使他们增加了他们的搜索活动的步伐,并且在某些情况下,增加了他们的分配的规模,”Gomez说。“其他人,我认为,已经决定撤销并等待波动。所以我不会说这是一种明确的趋势。“
安德森确定了自20世纪90年代以来发展的四种类型的新兴市场资金和投资策略:美元计价的新兴 - 市场主权,当地货币计价的新兴市场主权,新兴市场公司和混合新兴 - 市场的资金结合在一起从前三个策略。
在地面,似乎对投资者希望在波动期间提高他们对新兴市场债券的拨款来逆行。这类投资可能面临进一步的陷阱,潜在的美国国债率引发了美联储持续核对的核对。安德森说:“拥有印度卢比或接触到的经理土耳其里拉那even just a little bit, saw those currencies fall about 30 percent or so last year,” pushing down overall fund performance. “That’s something for investors to keep in mind, not only in the emerging-markets space but also in the world bond space in a fund with a lot of emerging-markets exposure,” she says.
Yet亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者’ online search activity in recent months shows a rising interest in emerging-markets bonds, according to eVestment. The company is forecasting that亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者将于今年将净新的500亿美元用于新兴市场债券基金。根据Rich Donnellan,Provestment Product Manager的说法,该投影基于其数据库内最近的搜索模式的近期搜索模式的建模。
新兴市场的紧张严重影响了bond values. During 2013 the J.P. Morgan emerging-markets index (global) a dollar-denominated sovereign debt index, fell 6.58 percent, with much of that happening in May and June. Year-to-date as of January 31, the index had declined by an additional 1.02 percent. As of February 18 the index has leveled off, with a year-to-date growth rate of 0.02 percent, more than compensating for its slight January decline. The sell-off has been steeper for bond funds denominated in local currencies. The J.P. Morgan government bond index for emerging markets (global diversified unhedged) sank by 8.98 percent in 2013. Year-to-date through January 31, this index had declined an additional 4.63 percent. Year-to-date as of February 18, the index is down 1.61 percent, nearly erasing its January slide.
PIMCO.has seen its own share of outflows. The dollar-denominated Pimco Emerging-Markets Bond Fund – Institutional (PEBIX) was hit with a $5.37 billion, or 14 percent, net outflow in the fourth quarter of 2013, leaving its assets under management at $32.6 billion at year’s end, according to eVestment. Pimco sustained a sharper $1.08 billion, or 43 percent, net outflow for its Pimco Emerging Local Bond Fund – Institutional (PEBLX), which invests in local currency sovereigns, leaving the fund with $1.4 billion in total assets under management at year’s end. Morningstar rates both Pimco funds gold.
Despite their recent mixed showings, both Pimco funds have outperformed over the long term. According to eVestment numbers, PEBIX surpassed its benchmark in 2013: –5.68 percent, compared with –6.58 percent for the benchmark, J.P. Morgan emerging-markets bond index (global). Year-to-date, the fund is down by only 0.05 percent as of February 18. Over the past five years, the fund has bettered its benchmark, averaging 12.25 percent annually against the benchmark’s 11.52 percent.
PEBLX underperformed its J.P. Morgan government bond index for emerging markets benchmark in 2013, declining by 10.06 percent compared with a decline of 8.98 percent of its benchmark, according to eVestment. The fund lost 4.64 percent in January, but as of February 18, its year-to-date return had improved to –1.65 percent. Overall during the past five years, this fund has beaten the benchmark, with an average annual return of 9.69 percent, compared with 8.06 percent for the benchmark.
投资者也向新兴市场公司债券基金带来。A couple that Anderson recommends are the Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Corporate Debt Fund (SHCDX), which is up 1.13 percent year-to-date as of February 18. Another is T. Rowe Price’s Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund (PACEX), up 1.02 percent year-to-date as of February 18. Both have bounced back from January declines.
The newest investment class, flexible total return funds, gives investors a way to obtain active management across the broad spectrum of emerging-markets bonds, according to Anderson. Within this category, Anderson particularly likes the Fidelity New Income Markets Fund (FNMIX), which Morningstar rates silver. John Carlson, the manager of the fund, won Morningstar’s fixed-income manager of the year in 2011. This fund is down 0.18 percent year-to-date on February 18.