Seeking to discard its membership in the so-calledFragile Fivegroup of troubled merging market economies, Brazil has adopted fresh doses of fiscal and monetary discipline lately, helping to shore up financial markets. But the country has yet to embrace the elixir of reform that could reignite growth, analysts say.
Dirma Rousseff总统政府在公共支出削减中承诺了185亿美元，以便在控制下实现财政赤字。而且，巴西中央银行在过去一年中将基准利率提高到同比高11％的高点 - 降低了侵蚀该国竞争力的高通胀。
The efforts to restore financial stability have supported prices on Brazil’s BM&F BOVESPA exchange. The index closed at 51,696 on Monday, up 15 percent from the recent low in mid-March but down 5 percent from a peak in mid-May.
Looking at the long term, are institutional investors convinced that Brazilian securities offer good prospects?
“Brazil is a large market which is continuously throwing up excellent opportunities,” says Jan Dehn, London-based head of research at Ashmore Investment Management, a firm specializing in emerging markets and with assets under management of $70 billion as of March 31. Dehn thinks the country’s financial fundamentals are good, including its primary fiscal surplus, large foreign exchange reserves and a commitment to keeping inflation under control. (A primary surplus is a fiscal surplus before allowing for debt interest payments.)
然而，Dehn承认，经济增长的多年已经过去了。政府的通胀战斗和财政纪律的稳定的稳定政策缺乏通过提高生产力推动趋势增长所需的供应方措施。结果，他说，“巴西市场不会在上行程序上得到超过，但它也不会有危机。”
Steady and stable growth, marked by an absence of the sort of excessive exuberance that, for example, prompts risky corporate M&A deals, is often considered good for corporate bonds. Siddharth Dahiya, the head of the emerging-markets debt team of £324.5 billion ($541 billion) Aberdeen Asset Management in London, likes construction company OAS. Yields on U.S. dollar–denominated four-year bonds in the company, rated single- or double-B by various rating agencies, are 7 percent.
OAS is likely to gain from government policies to boost the country’s infrastructure, the deteriorating quality of which was partly behind the mass protests last June against the government’s record. But many institutional investors believe that Brazilian government policy exercises a malign effect on large parts of the corporate bond and stock markets.
“The Rousseff administration has been very interventionist. This interventionism has damaged the utilities and other sectors,” says Chris Kelly, managing director and deputy head of emerging-markets fixed income at $4.4 trillion BlackRock in London. He cites Brazil’s utilities, laid low by severe tariff cuts and heavy regulation designed to please household consumers and its state-owned banks, which have been pressured by the government to extend credit to questionable borrowers. “The government uses companies to achieve policy goals,” warns Kelly, who advises that the bonds of companies called into action in this way are best avoided.
投资者避免国内政治的一种方式以及对巴西经济的担忧，是专注于出口商。“很多新兴市场债券发行人都是全球企业，”伦敦的£269亿英镑的信贷分析师Jon Brager说。他推荐SãoPaulo-Headquartered Braskem，这家出口的出口集中式公司。该公司的Triple-B-Minus债券在十年美国国债超过330个基点。
亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者认为，在巴西有几家经营过多的公司，相对没有政府干预。但是有足够的人吗？
IBovespa拥有十到12英寸的“真正的公司，”Xavier Hovass，基于462亿欧元的投资公司Carmignac Gestion的新兴探索基金。他引用了许多不同的品牌，包括全球酿造公司Ambev和Aircor Author Buildure Blactaer。然而，有问题：“巴西股指的四分之三是真正的揭露，”他总结道。因此，霍瓦斯说，剩下的季度价格被投资者竞标到他们看起来太昂贵的程度。
霍瓦斯表示，股票市场的投资者还必须考虑到巴西货币，真实的事实，因为它被大幅高估了。为了实现他认为国内生产总值0.5％的正常和健康的当前账户赤字，他表示，真正的需要从其2.24的速度下降到美元，截至5月30日至大约2.70。否则，巴西出口商不会足够竞争。
Responding to the twin issues of currency overvaluation and too much demand chasing too few good stocks, Carmignac has either trimmed its holdings of Brazilian stock investments or, as in the case of AmBev, sold out altogether. Carmignac is, as Hovasse describes, “massively underweight Brazil.” His Emerging Discovery Fund, for example, has a 2 percent holding in Brazilian stocks, compared with 10 percent for the index’s underlying benchmark. The fund is benchmarked with a 50 percent weighting to the MSCI emerging-markets small-cap index and a 50 percent weighting to the MSCI emerging-markets midcap index.
There is a final reason for Carmignac’s Brazilian bearishness: the firm’s skepticism about the government’s ability and willingness to carry out the reforms necessary to make the nation sufficiently competitive. “Brazil’s issues have not been addressed at all by the current government,” says Hovasse. He cites Brazil’s low productivity, poor infrastructure and high corporate taxes.
许多机构投亚博赞助欧冠资者都说，10月5日的胜利在商品友好型反对派领导人AécioNeve的大选将使他们更加看涨巴西金融市场，因为他们认为奈维将解决这个国家的许多国家的竞争力问题。然而，Rousseff仍然是民意调查中的前赛者。
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