J.P. Morgan Voted No. 1 in U.S. Stock Research

美国联邦储备计划本月完成其第三轮定量宽松风量，促使许多市场参与者想知道另一个溃败是否处于下定状态。在第一个QE计划的下降之后，2010年3月，标准普尔500指数下跌9％;当第二次迭代结束时，2011年6月，股价下跌近12％。然而，一些最突出的美国经纪人的股权研究董事认为，这次会有不同的。

“Unlike QE1 and QE2, QE3 is not ending abruptly, but is rather being tapered down over the course of ten months,” notesNicholas Rosato, who in May replaced Noelle Grainger as head of North American equity research at J.P. Morgan. (Grainger was promoted to director of global equity research.) This approach was designed to reassure investors that the central bank would only ease out of the bond-buying business as the U.S. economy improved. “It seems that this has had the desired effect on confidence, as this prolonged tapering has resulted in asset prices responding favorably. Our strategists see no reason why that won’t continue for the very last tapering step.”

美国银行美洲美洲银行股权研究主任Brett Hodess股票享有类似的观点。“While a pullback on the end of tapering is likely, the bearish sentiment, high cash balances of fund managers and the well-telegraphed end of QE3 — which is at least partly discounted in stocks — would likely limit any ‘taper tantrum’ to the 5 percent or less range,” he believes. “In addition, we had external shocks around the time of the first two QE policy shifts, such as the euro zone crisis and the fiscal brinkmanship moments in Washington, which contributed to those drops.”

A better macroeconomic environment this time around should help, agreesDavid Adelman, who in September replaced Stephen Penwell as director of Americas equity research at Morgan Stanley. (Penwell now oversees the firm’s North America Stock Selection Committee.) “The slowdowns that followed the ends of QE1 and QE2 were also accompanied by soft patches in the U.S. economy. Therefore, it is difficult to extract how much of the subsequent weakness was due to less-accommodative policy and how much to a slower growth outlook,” Adelman observes. “We generally remain sanguine today about the U.S. economy and hence are not anticipating a sharp correction post the tapering of asset purchases.”

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仍然，投资者焦虑是可以理解的，不仅债券购买计划的历史，还可达到关于美国经济复苏的力量的矛盾信号。例如，上个月晚些时候，经济分析局修订了第二季度的实际国内增长率从4.2％到4.6％，捆绑在2012年最后三个月的第四个月份，同时仅举一个月的工作增长慢于它一年四季。

Many fund managers will be asking sell-siders for help in interpreting the signs that will emerge in a posttapering world, and the firm whose analysts are considered the most insightful is J.P. Morgan, which tops亚博赞助欧冠所有美国研究团队第五年跑步。它的分析师在42个部门赚取一个地方，比去年少五个，只有一个比在第二位重复的衣服，Bofa Merrill，其团队职位总数从2013年不变. Look beyond these top-line results, however, and a wider disparity emerges. Nearly half of J.P. Morgan’s ranked analysts and teams capture first place in their respective categories, compared with just six for the No. 2 firm. BofA Merrill’s total includes 21 runner-up positions, as opposed to nine for the winning brokerage. In fact, when a rating of 4 is assigned to each first-teamer, 3 to each second-teamer, and so on, J.P. Morgan claims a weighted total of 123, far in front of BofA Merrill’s 80. (See “加权结果”.)

Click below for an infographic highlighting the results of the 2014 All-America Research Team survey.

Returning in third and fourth place overall are Morgan Stanley and Barclays, with 30 and 28 spots, respectively; these totals reflect a loss of three positions for each firm. ISI Group rockets from tenth place to fifth after increasing its total by six, to 23, including nine sector-topping performances — more than any other firm except J.P. Morgan. In August,ISI同意被Evercore Partners获得, an investment banking advisory firm based in New York.

These results reflect the opinions of more than 3,600 individuals at 1,017 firms that collectively manage an estimated $10.9 trillion in U.S. equities. The images on the surrounding pages highlight some of the researchers voted No. 1 in their coverage areas.

Among the industries sending mixed signals is residential construction. Housing starts plunged more than 14 percent in August after surging 11.1 percent in July. Nonetheless, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builders sentiment index notched its fourth straight monthly gain and hit a seven-month high in August.

“The recovery is now job-dependent and credit-dependent,” declares ISI’s斯蒂芬东，世卫组织在本土人和建筑产品中首次从赛跑者队第一次拱起，Zelman＆Associates的长期赛冠军塞缪尔·塞尔曼“在2012年和2013年，它更加关于低利率和可负担性。大部分负担性购买，我们现在返回传统的司机 - 主要是工作和家居组织，或者个人乐队共同分享住宿的方式。“平均而言，建立了两份职位产生一个家庭形成，”基于路易斯的分析师继续。“我们认为，如果经济每月产生200,000至250,000个工作，恢复将更加一致。”

Job growth averaged 212,000 a month in the year through July but dipped to 142,000 in August, according to the Labor Department.

“Another issue is credit availability — or lack thereof,” East says. “The first-time buyer, in particular, has been hard hit by excessively tight credit standards, preventing many from buying. Standards have eased a bit but remain well above historical norms. Until banks lend more broadly, the housing market will continue struggling.”

即便如此，分析师也很乐观。“如果我们一个月生成200,000个加上的工作，正如ISI的经济学家认为我们会的那样，新房市场将加速2015年的增长，”他说。“在那种情况下，我们相信房东和建筑 - 产品公司都会跑得更优于。”

根据Bofa Merrill的说法，还达到了未来一年中的广泛市场是许多软件名称Kasthuri rangan., who rises from second place to claim his first appearance atop the sector lineup. “This is a segment of the market that had been given up for dead — ignored as investors sought the safety and liquidity of large caps,” the San Francisco–based analyst says. “But as people start to realize that interest rates aren’t going to go a lot higher, we could be set for a period when people get ignited by their love of growth investing.”

然而，为了燃料扩张，许多公司将增加他们的运营，他补充道。“他们将不得不去寻求一个基于云的商业模式，与客户相比，”朗安解释道。“云计算是[信息技术]景观的小部分 - 它只有3％的占所有花费 - 我们认为这个数字将大幅增长。”他补充说，许多软件提供商已经开始了必要的转变。分析师目前的建议包括两个旧金山的服装 -Salesforce.com, a developer of client relationship management software, and Splunk, which makes products that search and analyze machine-generated big data — as well as VMware, a provider of virtualization software that is headquartered in nearby Palo Alto.

Rangan’s colleagueDouglas Leggate还推进了最终竞赛，首次在整合石油中首次申请部门王冠。（他还确保石油和天然气勘探和生产中的亚军现场。总部位于休斯敦的护腿认为它是。

“这是显着的，至少基于行业活动的预测，我们预计发展的步伐将继续上升，”他说。“较小的E＆P公司真的领导了过去五年的增长。拥有重要遗留面积的较大公司只是刚刚开始 - 以及在十年结束时可以维持增长的另一个生产的前景。“

Maximizing recovery is a key issue that the industry is struggling to address. “Recovery rates are still well below 10 percent of the oil in place,” Leggate says. “We believe the pace of growth can still accelerate as the industry optimizes development plans. The U.S. is already the largest oil producer in the world. In our view, production can reasonably increase by another 50 percent from here, if the regulatory and oil price environments allow.”

他说，分析师目前有利于“资产丰富的E＆PS，以强劲的资产负债表和执行能力来引起重大增长”。纽约和休斯顿的奔驰公司的奔驰公司是他首选的两个选择。“今年早些时候，我们在炼油部门采取了更加谨慎的立场，”leggate补充道。“直到我们对未来的美国石油出口政策得到一些清晰，我们的观点就是这一部门将保持挑战。”

据此，监管担忧也为大银行创造了逆风John McDonaldof Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Last month the Fed announced plans to impose a surcharge on the nation’s largest financial services providers, above the amount set forth in Basel III. The level of additional capital has not yet been determined.

“The Fed is sending a message that it wants U.S. banks to become smaller and simpler,” explains McDonald, who climbs from second place to first in Banks/Large-Cap. “It will impose higher capital charges on the largest, most complex banks to reduce the probability of their failure and to lessen the consequences when they do fail.”

他相信，这些费用可能导致股权股权回报率较低，从而衡量估值。“然而，这些否定可以减轻由于银行缩小化的价值，并且由于银行股票提供的潜在更高的倍数，因为它们被视为更安全，更可预测，”麦当劳说。

他的同事Joshua Stirling, who is No. 1 in Insurance/Nonlife in only his second year on the team, is bullish on the prospects of some companies in his coverage universe. “We see American International Group as well positioned to drive earnings growth,” says Stirling, who works out of Boston. “Since its death and rebirth during the financial crisis, AIG has the leverage to outperform as it transitions from a sprawling and historically undermanaged firm to a modern, disciplined and streamlined underwriter.”

他补充说，纽约的纽约的多林保险公司投资了人才和技术，并更好地评估风险和解决索赔。“Over time we expect the company to bring its operating margins in line with peers’, and as they compound book value and raise their ROE to double digits — they’re still only trading around 75 percent of book value — we see an opportunity for patient money to double or more,” Stirling predicts.

另一位分析师认为投资者开口赚钱是贾斯汀湖。他捕获了两个部门的第一名，卫生保健设施and管理式医疗，连续第二年。J.P.Morgan研究人员报告，“卫生保健设施迄今为止，迄今为止迄今为止迄今为止大约30％。他认为集会是可持续的。“我们只是在实施[卫生保健改革的第二种局面]。第二季度盈利对所有医院进行了更高的修订，我认为这一收益模式将在未来六到12个月内持续下去。我在我覆盖的所有医院买了评级。“

将刺激生长的催化剂之一是医疗补助扩张。患者保护和实惠的护理法案，更好地称为奥巴马拉卡，将收入限额提高到联邦贫困水平的133％，以便更多的人有资格获得覆盖，但最高法院裁定各国不能被迫参加。“只有大约一半的州已经将医疗补助扩展为医疗保健改革的一部分，但我认为，在未来三到五年内，注定要成为50个州，”湖说。“如果您回顾了Medicaid的推出，1965年，只有大约一半的国家首先选择了。超过三年，我们非常接近50。“

所有国家的美国人正在向经济复苏中的信仰发送混合信号。上个月，密歇根大学的消费者情绪指数飙升到了一年多，84.6的最高水平，但支出仍然是平坦的。

“餐馆一直在争夺与其他零售的悖论相同 - 迟钝的支出即使是信心和整体经济的改善，”摩根斯坦利的证明John Glass谁庆祝店铺名单上的第五张亮相。如丹佛的Chipotle墨西哥烤架和西雅图的星巴克公司的较高终端链在他指出的情况下，“虽然其余的仍在等待康复开始。当品牌尝试驾驶交通时，预计持续价格折扣。“

The analyst definitely sees the sector glass as half-full, so to speak. “We’re optimistic about the future,” he says. “There will be a gradual recovery, with lots of new concepts coming of age. Fast casual will continue its growth. Casual dining is and has been the most secularly challenged, but it’s far from dead. The segment needs restructuring, with business models that reflect the realities of today’s challenges.”

关于许多公司所涵盖的公司也可以说也是如此Tien-Tsin Huang在过去的五年in second place in Computer Services & IT Consulting and this year captures the top spot for the first time. “My sector has uncharacteristically underperformed the market this year, after posting strong outperformance in 2013,” the J.P. Morgan analyst affirms. “Multiples remain healthy, but we’ve seen fewer positive earnings surprises to push stocks higher as the pricing environment remains muted and volumes stay stable.”

Even so, Huang is unabashedly bullish on payment processors. “Visa and MasterCard have faced various growth headwinds and uncertainties, includingregulation,外汇和技术中断恐惧，受到不受欢迎的全球消费者恢复的支持，“他解释道。“我们预计这些逆风越来越淡化，因为这两家公司都经过足够的时间来适应，引入新的服务和价值和增长的报酬。”

整个市场正在适应后化环境，相信Bofa Merrill的Hodess。“我们正在向美联储刺激和消费驱动的牛市转移到更加中间的牛市，”他说。“与公司的资产负债表和现金流动通常以伟大的形状，以及低于正常的企业支出方式，我们采取的是我们正在转向资本支出驱动的市场。”

最好的可能还有摩根士丹利的阿德尔曼。“这可能是有史以来最长的扩张 - 也许持续到2020年，”他说。“高于正常百分比的股权暴露是谨慎的。”•