CICC Leads All-China Research Team for Third Straight Year

The mid-November activation of theShanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect，将股票市场联系在这些城市中，并允许投资者在一个地点交易另一个交易所，许多基金经理再次兴起中国股票。

“我们认为这是中国的一大飞跃，”亚伦·林，新加坡队列的Legg Mason全球资产​​管理领导者为亚洲前日本。“我们认为这是对双方投资者的越来越多的机会，我们反过来又试图为我们的全球客户提供更多的能力给中国的市场。”

Those on the sell side echo that view. “In preparation for theShanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connectlaunch, we expanded our team and our coverage universe,” explains Vincent Chan, head of China research at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong. “We increased the number of Chinese companies under our coverage by more than 50 percent, to nearly 300.”

负责香港Angello Chan reporting on Chinese equities at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, says his firm is seeing “substantial interest among global investors in China in light of different industry reforms and corporate restructuring, including the commencement of the Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect trading program.” He manages a team of 70 analysts who cover both Hong Kong–listed H shares and mainland-listed A shares, he adds.

This renewed focus comes at a time when Chinese stocks are rebounding after a disappointing 2013. The CSI 300, an index that tracks China’s largest Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed companies, by market capitalization, bolted nearly 21 percent in the first 11 months of the year. During the same period, the S&P 500 advanced about 12 percent.

Naturally, investors are eager to participate in this resurgence, and many look to the sell side for assistance in finding winning investments. The analysts who provide the most helpful guidance, they say, can be found at中国国际资本公司那which leads亚博赞助欧冠你们的中国研究团队连续第三个ar. The firm captures 25 team positions, the same number as last year and 11 more thanBofA Merrill那which repeats in second place. The U.S. bank claims 14 spots, two fewer than in 2013.瑞士信贷climbs one level, to No. 3, but that modest rise belies the organization’s robust gains: Its team total nearly doubles, from six positions to 11 — a feat bested only by fellow Swiss bank瑞银那whose total vaults from three to ten. It rockets from ninth place to fourth and is this year’s biggest upward mover. Rounding out the top five isMorgan Stanley那which rises one rung after increasing its team total by three, to eight.

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这些结果反映了大约410个机构的近850名投资专业人员的意见，管理估计的中国股票5840亿美元。有关更多信息，请单击方法。

Many market observers are upbeat on China’s prospects for the year ahead. “We remain positive and expect domestically favorable catalysts to continue to unfold,” says Hong Liang, director of research at CICC in Beijing. Her firm employs 68 analysts who follow some 800 Chinese companies, up from 685 a year ago.

In late November the central bank reduced its one-year lending rate by 40 basis points, to 5.6 percent — a move that helps to reduce tail risks and encourages more risk taking from market participants, she notes. The surprise rate cut sent global equity markets soaring.

“Ongoing structural reforms will become much broader and more comprehensive, reinvigorating China’s longer-term growth potential,” Liang adds. “Current subdued valuations mean Chinese equities are still an attractive ‘sweet spot’ among global markets, with ample room for further rerating.”

梁认为，投资者将使他们的暴露于“周期性部门和卫星行业和优质消费者名称”，“良好的增长能力和合理的估值。”“特别是，我们将超重资金 - 房地产，银行，保险公司和经纪人 - 在”新的“空间中的”旧“戏剧中，保健。”

中国的经济经历了痛苦的重组since President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang came to power nearly two years ago. Xi释放反腐败活动that has led to the punishment of more than 180,000 officials, and Li has stepped up support of China’s private sector, exempting businesses with monthly sales of less than 30,000 yuan ($4,800) from certain taxes while increasing bank lending to small and medium enterprises. Real gross domestic growth has slowed from 10.4 percent in 2010 to 7.7 percent last year, a downward trend that many economists believe is likely to continue.

“我们预计GDP增长从今年的7.3％到2015年的7.2％略微增长，”第二年的经济学家举行的第二年的经济学家说。尽管如此，BOFA Merrill研究员认为，有一些短期因素可能有利于增长。由于政府将其重点转移到经济扩张和机构建设，而遭遇今年遭遇大幅下挫的房地产市场，这是反腐败的运动不太可能产生负面影响。“平衡潜在的增长和更好的周期性因素的长期下行趋势，我们预计2015年只有温和的放缓，”Lu表示，他总部位于香港。

Not all sectors will be affected equally — or at all. CICC’s Xin Yang, the No. 1 analyst in Infrastructure & Transportation for a fourth consecutive year, maintains that many companies in her coverage universe will continue to do well.

“Despite China’s slowdown, the fast expansion of the Internet will boost the logistics sector, and the recent fall of oil prices is good news to the airlines,” she says. “Container terminals will enjoy the continuous rebound of exports as well.”

Among the Beijing-based researcher’s top picks of the past year is China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., which she upgraded from hold to buy in March on the belief that the company would benefit from rising demand owing to falling energy prices, among other considerations. The shares soared more than 92 percent through November.

“We still hold a positive view about the stock, given that there is significant improvement in demand-supply conditions in the oil tanker market, especially in the very large crude carriers — hence a freight rate hike is expected,” she says.

Telecommunications is another sector with ongoing growth opportunities, according to BofA Merrill’s Xinnian (Sydney) Zhang, who climbs from second place to savor his first appearance at No. 1.

“We are bullish on the China telcos because the government is driving all telcos to improve efficiencies and returns,” the Hong Kong–based analyst reports. Many of these companies are trading at less than four times their estimated fiscal 2015 earnings, which is significantly lower than the average of their Asian peers, he points out.

In mid-July, Zhang upgraded China Mobile from neutral to buy, at HK$77.36, after the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission ordered telecommunications services providers to reduce spending on advertising and marketing; the cutback should help boost the Hong Kong–headquartered outfit’s net profits, the analyst argued. By the end of November the stock had bolted 23.5 percent, to HK$95.55. “Our stock call on China Mobile has been among the most-read research by our clients,” he says.

Zhang’s colleague Wai (Eddie) Leung, who leads the Internet lineup for a third straight year, says rising demand for mobile data has given rise to significant upsides in investing in Chinese Internet companies. The momentum for online services — especially in demand for e-commerce — will continue to grow for quite some time, the Hong Kong–based analyst insists. His top recommendation remains search engine operator Baidu, whose shares advanced 38 percent in the first 11 months of the year.

Although the rapid rise in online retailing has hurt brick-and-mortar businesses as well as cut into demand for shopping centers and commercial real estate, opportunities still exist in the longer term in Consumer/Discretionary companies because China’s middle class will continue to grow, observes Chen Luo, who jumps from third place to the top of the sector roster.

“从一个周期性的角度来看，我们认为，在未来12个月内，收益将稳定甚至改善，”他说。现有库存供过于求将下降，而反腐败纲领，该计划削减到奢侈品上的高端支出，可能会消失，相信分析师，驻扎在新加坡。

Luo’s top picks for the year include Belle International Holdings, a Shenzhen-based manufacturer and retailer of women’s apparel and shoes. “Despite the weak retail environment, we have argued that the recovery of its sportswear business and resilient footwear margins — thanks to a strong supply chain — could provide potential earnings upside in 2014, and its recent [fiscal] first-half result has reaffirmed our view,” he says.

10月下旬，该公司报告说，从3月至8月，净利润飙升7.6％，达到28.8亿元（3.39亿美元）。截至11月底，股票以3月底触底为触底后提出了约23％;到目前为止股价上涨1.4％。

瑞银的Yanyan（Christine）彭先生在她的第一次出现在2010年以来的第一次出现的消费者/不受欢迎的地方射击，也相信转变迫在眉睫。截至11月，她的部门下降了大约20％。“因此，与年初，我们在未来12个月内转变更积极，”她指出。

即便如此，总部位于香港的分析师承认，未来存在挑战，特别是牵头参与者已经享有主导市场份额，并且将来会持续艰难地表现未来。她还认为，一些公司在其品牌和产品中受到投资，这意味着新产品创新可能无法随着投资者的渴望而轻松快速地通过。

These and other concerns help explain why BofA Merrill’s David Cui, on top in Portfolio Strategy for a fourth year in a row, is less optimistic than many other analysts. “I hold a cautious view on China’s equity market outlook over a one- to two-year horizon,” he says. “I expect China’s financial system to experience turbulence at some stage as growth slows and bad debt increases.”

投资者应定位他们的投资组合，以承受到来的挥发性，增加了新加坡的崔。策略师解释说：「我建议客户致力于防守，因为中国可能会经历资产通货紧缩周期。具体而言，他们应该体重资金，房地产开发商和这种投资驱动的行业作为建筑材料，资本商品和承包商，以及超重电信，天然气，公用事业，国防和一些服务领域，如物流和旅游。