UBS Soars to Top of All-Europe Research Team

Is Europe’s economic expansion about to gain momentum? Economists with the European Commission say yes. Earlier this month they raised their forecast for real gross domestic product growth across the euro zone from 1.1 percent to 1.3 percent this year and from 1.7 percent to 1.9 percent in 2016, citing lower oil prices and a weaker euro, among other factors.

许多覆盖该地区的分析师和研究董事认为这些经济学家并不乐于乐观。

“我们同意欧元区增长日益增长的建设性观点，”J.P. Morgan Cazenove的欧洲股权研究负责人Christian Kern说。他的公司今年呼吁上涨1.5％，2016年较高2.2％。“除了较低的商品价格和欧洲贬值的尾风，我们突出了宽松信贷条件，比前几年和欧洲中央的财政拖累较小Bank’s quantitative easing,” he notes.

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“欧元汇率的下降已相当大，甚至在欧元术语中，油价下跌也很大，”德意志银行的标记墙增加了油价。“如果组合没有振作增长，那将令人失望。”

世界各地的货币管理人员希望从该地区的改善前景中获利，许多人将在最佳投资场所的方向上看销售方面。该公司分析师提供最受重视评论的公司是UBS，第五个地方的拱顶亚博赞助欧冠自2010年以来，全欧洲研究团队首次抓住了最高荣誉。瑞士银行抓住了30个职位，超过2014年的50％的职位，比分享第二层的公司，这两个人增加了50％，Deutsche Bank和J.P. Morgan Cazenove.。The former’s rank and total are unchanged from last year, while the latter picks up one spot and in so doing advances one level.

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Last year’s winner,美国银行Merrill Lynch, falls to fourth place after losing six positions, leaving it with 26.摩根士丹利slips one rung to No. 5; its total falls by one, to 22.

However, when a weighting of 4 is applied to each first-place position, 3 to each second-place spot, and so on, BofA Merrill and Deutsche Bank rank highest, each with a weighted score of 62, while UBS comes in third, with a score of 61. (See加权结果。）

Survey results reflect the opinions of 2,040 money managers at 775 institutions overseeing an estimated $6.2 trillion in European equities.

今年标志着排名的30周年。为了纪念场合，II在过去三十年中汇总了调查数据，以确定哪些公司和团队领导人在此期间最多的出现。苏黎世的银行业庞然大物在前面遥不上，自1986年以来一直积累了一个惊人的1,345点。总体而言，有784个景点，是BOFA Merrill，伴随着瑞士信贷的第三名，拥有724个。点击这里有关30周年排名的更多信息。

Click on the image below for an infographic highlighting the findings of this year's survey.

One of the most honored analysts in the history of the survey, Mark Stockdale, is also the person who oversaw UBS’s return to the top of the roster. Stockdale and the squads he’s directed garnered 24 appearances in Building & Construction — including nine visits to the winner’s circle — from 1989 (when he was with Barclays de Zoete Wedd; he joined UBS predecessor S.G. Warburg in 1992) through 2011, when he was promoted to head of European equity research. He held that post until last September (just as polling for the current survey got under way), then moved into the bank’s corporate broking division. His successor in the research role is Daniel Dowd, former director of U.S. equity research at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York.

UBS declined to make either Stockdale or Dowd available for interview.

J.P. Morgan Cazenove也经历了欧洲股权研究等级的变化。Kern取代了10月退休的Paul Huxford。

“随着量化宽松计划与改善活动数据流程的定量宽松计划恰逢自2001年以来，全欧洲研究团队出现在全欧洲研究团队中，作为各种宽松的计划与改善活动数据流程相结合。今年，他管理一支队伍，以获得联合王国的报道亚军。“在全球层面，我们认为，2015年欧元区将优于美国，在欧元区内，我们过去几个月的顶级选择是德国，但我们越来越多地认为周边需要赶上。”

他的船员在美国的股票上仍然体重减轻。由于政治不确定性。“我们看到了U.K.选举可能就是重要的，”他说。“根据选举结果，关于美国联盟的欧洲联盟会员的潜在公投。”

Jonathan Jayarajan，Deutsche银行欧洲，中东和非洲股权研究，同意。“U.K.选举如果由保守派领导的中心政府来到权力，选举可能会产生一些深刻的含义，”他说。“保守党已经承诺了欧盟的欧盟的会员资格，如果他们与U.K.独立党联盟，这可能会加速。”

Jayarajan, who is based in London, believes the contest will be close. “If the U.K. were to vote to leave, that would clearly have a profound impact on both the U.K. and the EU,” he adds.

Threats to regional cohesion aren’t coming only from the right wing. In Greece the far-left Syriza party rode to victory in January on an anti-austerity platform that puts the deeply indebted nation on a collision course with its European creditors.

Richard Smith，Deutsche Bank的伦敦联合全球股权研究负责人，相信双方将能够解决他们的差异。

“Despite the apparent polarization in the views of the new Greek government and its European partners, we believe it is in their collective best interests to find a compromise that allows Greece to remain within the euro zone — but with greater breathing space than it has today,” he says. “As we approach the point when funding for Greek banks starts to run out or when the Greek government runs short of funds, we believe the serious negotiations will begin.”

Kern股票的观点。谈判在变得更好之前，谈判可能会变得更糟，近期波动性将保持提升，但我们相信将到底达成妥协，“他说。

Political instability is hardly limited to the euro zone. “At the moment, the Russia-Ukraine crisis remains the one most likely to have more global implications if peace negotiations are unsuccessful,” observes Jayarajan. “A flare-up in the region will raise tensions between Russia and the West and will likely see further economic impact. We do not expect a full-scale military conflict between Russia and the West, but a proxy war remains a significant risk.”

根据Christyan Malyk的说法，在中东地区已经在中东地区的一些类似的东西，他领导野村国际团队在石油服务部门胜利。“伊朗和沙特阿拉伯之间的冷战是沙特人愿意容忍更长时间较低的油价的主要司机，”他解释道。“王国可以使用低油价来消除伊朗的威胁，并最终将国家迫使国家变成政权变更”或者一项条约，这条约急剧降低了其在所谓的什叶派中的影响，包括巴林，伊拉克，叙利亚和也门。

“This remains a key and recurring theme from our trips to the Middle East and is the primary basis of why we have been cautious on oil prices since April of last year,” adds Malek, who works out of London.

他和他的员工正在敦促客户以所有费用避免欧洲的石油场服务提供商。“任何由石油价格反弹和/或每股积极收益的反弹的部门都应该被视为临时 - 以及出售的机会，”他争辩。“We think company management teams might be lured into a false sense of security as they are able to ‘dine off’ legacy backlogs — secured at healthy margins — to help offset losses in [earnings before interest and taxes] resulting from reduced pricing and lower asset utilizations.”

Such good times won’t last, however. “Derating of backlogs and collapse in margins are inevitable,” he insists, and likely to occur in the next 12 to 18 months.

一个通常从加强地缘政治不确定性受益的一个部门是航空航天和防御。“我们推荐在欧洲，亚洲和中东地区的全球紧张局势上升，”CélineFornaro报道，在伦敦的举办的伦敦返回到部门名单顶部，第二名。“在欧洲，一些国家推迟了他们的国防预算削减 - 瑞典，U.K.，法国，波兰和芬兰 - 经过多年的下降后恢复增长。通过其2016财年预算，通过其向国防支出的设备发出健康回报。其他盟友，如日本和澳大利亚，增加了2015财年国防预算。“

在这些不确定的时期prepared is a lesson that also applies to investors — especially those that believe the central bank’s bond-buying scheme will be the cure to what’s ailing Europe.

“欧洲央行没有完全控制这种情况，”小心墙，他将德意志队牧人在经济学的第1号牧场直线外观。“仍然依赖于全球经济的健康，其他央行的行动以及欧洲是否实施结构改革。”尽管如此，基于伦敦的经济学家补充说：“我们可以负担得起更加乐观。”