Mizuho Takes Top Spot on 2015 All-Japan Research Team

Economic data coming out of Japan continues to disappoint. Last month the government estimated that the annualized rate of real gross domestic product growth from October through December was a paltry 1.5 percent, well below consensus expectations of 2.2 percent. Industrial production plunged by 3.4 percent from January to February, the same month in which the nation’s consumer price index failed to advance for the first time in nearly two years.

In mid-March the Bank of Japan acknowledged that inflation is likely to remain flat “for the time being,” prompting many market observers to wonder if policymakers might pursue an even more aggressive program of quantitative easing to jump-start growth in the world’s third-largest economy.

Yohei Osade，Mizuho Securities集团的全球泛亚股权研究负责人，并不相信将发生这种情况，至少在近期。“在Boj的Parlance中，”暂时“一般意味着大约六个月”，“他说。“BOJ保持其评估，即通胀预期从一定长期的角度来看整体上升。我们考虑唯一会在六月季度提示额外宽松的案例将是核心CPI的增长率远低于零或通货膨胀率期望的广泛下降。“

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日本股权研究负责人Nomura的Jun Konomi，同意。“迅速行动 - 四月或七月 - BOJ不太可能，”他断言。“它将忽略当前的通货膨胀放缓。它认为放缓是暂时的，油价下跌的主要原因，并认为这些价格将在刺激需求时对中等和长期通货膨胀对上升压力。“

This anemic backdrop is not inhibiting demand for Japanese equities. In mid-March the benchmark Nikkei 225 index closed above the 19,000 mark for the first time since the spring of 2000 — and within two weeks had advanced an additional 500 points. Understandably, investors want to know how high stock prices will go and when the sustainable recovery promised under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s three-pronged program, commonly referred to as Abenomics, will begin. To find out, many portfolio managers will look to the sell side for guidance. The firm whose analysts provide the most helpful insights, they say, is Mizuho Securities, which captures first place on亚博赞助欧冠’s All-Japan Research Team for asecond consecutive year. It wins 28 positions, four more than in 2014. Nomura, which shared the winner’s circle with Mizuho last year, slips to second place, with a total of 23.

SMBC Nikko Securities holds steady in third place with 19 spots. Daiwa Securities Group climbs one level to No. 4, after picking up four positions, bringing its total to 18. Two firms share the fifth tier, with 11 spots each. Bank of America Merrill Lynch, whose total falls by five, slips from fourth place, while Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. jumps from No. 8 even though its total is unchanged from last year.

这些结果reflect the opinionsof more than 1,100 buy-side analysts and money managers at some 375 institutions that collectively oversee an estimated $1.2 trillion in Japanese equities.

Click onLeadersin the navigation table at right to see the full list of ranked firms, or Best Analysts of the Year to view profiles of the people in first, second and third places and to find information about when the researchers debuted in their sectors, the total number of appearances they have amassed to date, their total appearances at No. 1 (where applicable) and comments from money managers about what distinguishes each analyst from his or her peers.

也可从这链接a list of analysts who earn a runner-up spot in each sector. Please note: Information about individuals in the second and third positions, and runners-up, is available tosubscribersonly.

TheAll-Japan Research Team Hall of Fame, which was introduced in 2013, on the 20th anniversary of the survey, to pay tribute to analysts who have earned at least ten sector-topping appearances, welcomes two new members this year:Shinsuke Iwasaof Mizuho Securities Group, who leads the lineup in Broadcasting; and UBS’sMariko Watanabe, the No. 1 analyst in OTC & Small Companies.

Another Hall of Famer,Nobuyuki Saji在三菱UFJ摩根斯坦利，在经济学中延伸到第14年。他认为中央银行将被迫在今年晚些时候扩大其量化宽松计划，最有可能于十月。经济增长“仍然缺乏真正的势头”，“他指出，”政府诱发的工资徒步旅行是支撑私营部门需求的主要因素。“Saji预测本月始于当前财政年度的GDP仅为1％。

Nomura’s Konomi expects the nation to grow at twice that rate; while Mizuho’s Osade is the most optimistic of the group, calling for a 2.3 percent increase.

“We maintain our central portfolio focus on domestic demand, due to the downside risk facing the U.S. economy and the upside potential for Japan market demand,” he says.

零售是他的团队认为将在未来一年内推出广泛市场的一个部门。“全国百货商店销售额同比增长1.1％，自去年四月消费税收以来的第一次增加，”伊斯达特报道。“然而，超市销售额下跌0.8％，连续11个月下降。百货商店在农历新年假期期间，百货商店的差异是捕捉来自海外访客的需求，特别是来自中国。“

Real wages (total earnings minus year-over-year change in the CPI), which have fallen or flatlined every month for nearly two years, “should turn positive in April once the impact of the consumption tax hike drops out. Large employers have agreed to 2.4 percent wage increases this year, the largest since 1998,” he adds. “Individual stock selection is particularly important in the retail sector, although we remain overweight because consumer spending is set to recover.”

The Mizuho team is also bullish on construction names, which underperformed throughout much of the past 12 months but began to rally in March. “The main objectives of the amended quality assurance act, which took effect in April, are to clarify responsibilities for entities issuing public works orders, prevent underbidding, ensure that contractors can operate at reasonable profit levels and make the industry a more attractive employment option for young people,” Osade explains. “Other laws that come into force in July will enhance site safety. We expect the market to price in a margin recovery at the major construction firms. The industry has not traditionally been known for its focus on shareholders, but we expect a growing number of firms to include [return-on-equity] targets when publishing medium-term plans.”

Konomi分享了对零售商的积极看法，并包括他的行业名单上的房地产，精致优惠。“过去的房地产股中的主要集会已经看到部门的股价从下半场升起了五次五到六年”，野村研究主任解释说。“假设我们已经进入了一段长期的股价收益，因为Boj的定量和定性宽松，我们可以预期房地产库存一般在一年的周期中表现良好。我们仍然看到房地产行业基本面的稳步改善。“

One industry that investors would do well to avoid, he adds, is pharmaceuticals. “The government is increasingly attempting to rein in drug expenditures,” Konomi says. “Earnings at makers of branded drugs have been lackluster of late due to government initiatives to encourage greater use of generics. The government is also thinking about constraining drug expenditures over the medium term by introducing cost-benefit analysis and strengthening the role of insurers, with detailed discussions likely from the second half of this year ahead of April 2016 drug price revisions.”

投资者可能会对这些负面反应discussions, he adds, noting that Japan’s pharma shares have generally performed poorly versus the Topix in the year before biannual revisions to National Health Insurance reimbursement prices. “We therefore expect a lackluster performance in 2015,” he summarizes. “Also, decreased interest in dividend yield and the possibility of interest rate rises are other reasons we think the pharmaceuticals sector will underperform.”

Overall, though, he believes that stock prices will continue to move generally upward and has a year-end target of 20,000 for the Nikkei 225. “Improving fundamentals and upgrading corporate governance — which is one big achievement of Abenomics — are basic reasons for the current bull market,” Konomi says. “Looking over the medium term, we forecast that the Nikkei average will reach 25,000 in 2018 under our Abenomics success scenario.”

Osade believes the index will peak this year in June, at 21,000, and then retreat. “Forecasting the level at the end of 2015 is a bit difficult for us because we expect the Nikkei average to move in a range of 18,000–20,000 during the second half of the fiscal year,” the Mizuho research director says, citing a number of factors that could increase volatility — interest rate hikes in the U.S.; supply overhang caused by the initial public offerings of Japan Post Holdings Co., which many analysts expect will set a global record; and “waning public support for the Abe administration as it tries to push through its national security legislation.”

Even so, he sees cause for optimism. Companies are likely to be conservative when issuing their guidance for the current fiscal year, followed by “upward revisions as first-half reporting season approaches,” Osade says. “We have little hope of major positives from the third iteration of the government’s growth strategy [to be published in June], although we do expect stocks to be lifted as the corporate governance code takes effect and companies enhance their distributions ahead of shareholders’ meetings. Also, investors may take a more positive view of the domestic demand recovery from April, when lower year-earlier figures will make retail sales growth look better.”