俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行（Sberbank）将VTB Capital摘得2015年全俄研究团队榜首

有好消息传出Russia最近。今年第一季度，俄罗斯经济仅同比收缩1.9%，远低于许多分析师的预期，而俄罗斯基准贸易体系指数（Trading System index）也一直处于低迷状态，截至今年5月，该指数今年迄今已飙升22.5%。

Do these signals indicate an end to the financial crisis that began last year, sparked by油价下跌as well as thesanctions是西方国家为了回应俄罗斯对乌克兰的干涉而强加的吗？

许多市场观察人士警告称，不要指望它。

“There have been two main drivers to the rally in Russian stocks — the bounce in the oil price and the success of the Minsk II” cease-fire agreement between the two countries, observes金斯米尔债券，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行股票策略主管。“我们预计夏季牛市不会继续，因为我们预计油价会回落。”

Dmitry Dmitriev, global head of research at VTB Capital, adds that bargain hunters have largely driven the current surge. “External shocks reached a climax at year end, as did the risk premium,” he explains. “We believe stock market prices after the recent rally fairly reflect the risk-reward balance, so the market is likely to take a pause to determine the further trend in both risk premium and magnitude of recovery.”

后一点在投资者心中非常重要，他们中的许多人希望卖方能够调和普京政府的官方预测与分析师和经济学家提出的更为温和的前景之间看似矛盾的矛盾。他们最看重建议的公司是Sberbank，它的排名上升了一个档次，重新夺回了全俄研究团队的第一名，亚博赞助欧冠’s exclusive annual ranking of the nation’s best sell-side researchers. It earns 12 positions in 11 sectors, ranking twice in Corporate Debt but failing to appear in Utilities.

此外，今年排名靠前的研究人员中，有整整一半来自该公司，其中包括四个领导经济与战略行业的人：债券（股票战略）公司，阿列克谢·布尔加科夫（公司债务），Evgeny Gavrilenkov(Economics) andAlexander Kudrin（固定收益策略）。这至少是其他公司获得第一名的两倍。

去年该公司的赢家VTB Capital在失去三个仓位后下滑至第二位，仅剩下11个仓位。德意志银行（deutschebank）总共亏损7家，也反映出亏损3家；尽管如此，该行仍连续第七年位居第三。排在前五位的是美国银行美林（bankofamerica-Merrill-Lynch），有六个席位（比2014年减少一个）；瑞银（UBS），五个席位的总数与去年持平。

These results reflect the opinions of 340 individuals at 240 buy-side institutions that oversee an estimated $121 billion in Russian equity and fixed-income assets.

共有13家公司被列入今年的名单，其中包括两家首次出现的公司：巴克莱银行（Barclays）和BCS金融集团（BCS Financial Group）。单击右侧导航表中的“引线”链接以查看完整列表。

Moscow-based Kudrin, who in November replaced Paolo Zaniboni as Sberbank’s head of research, believes Russia’s economic recovery faces several threats. “First, I would mention potential mistakes by authorities in the overall management of the situation. Crisis requires quick and balanced decisions, which is not an easy job,” he notes. “The second big risk is the external environment, and here we are mainly referring to oil price dynamics. The third threat is the overall investment climate in the country.”

德意志银行负责俄罗斯公司研究的负责人雅罗斯拉夫·里斯索沃利克也同意这一观点。“经济复苏面临的最大风险包括缺乏结构性改革动力，以及与油价动态和地缘政治相关的外部阻力，”这名排名第二的驻莫斯科分析师表示经济和第三股权策略. “我们认为，这些风险在短期内仍相当明显，对抑制俄罗斯的增长势头意义重大。”

But VTB Capital’s Dmitriev is more optimistic. “The Russian economy has demonstrated a very high ability to adapt to the new environment after severe shocks coincided with the period of structural slowdown,” the Moscow-based research director believes. “Gradual stabilization is to continue in the second half, for a full-year [real gross domestic product] contraction in the 3 to 3.5 percent range. We expect it to turn into a slow recovery in 2016 driven by real incomes and investments encouraged by softer monetary policy.”

斯伯班克的加夫里连科夫，庆祝他连续第八年经济学第一-在目前排名靠前的研究人员中，连续获胜时间最长的一位指出，很难预测决策者将采取什么措施。

“Basically, I call the current situation ‘crisis as usual,’ meaning that whenever the price of oil falls, there is a perception of a crisis,” the Moscow-based economist asserts. Unfortunately, he adds, the government and central bank don’t always fashion appropriate responses. “I won’t mention all of the policy mistakes and experiments, but one reason for the deceleration in recent years was that until 2012–’13, growth was largely fueled by a too-rapid expansion of consumer lending,” Gavrilenkov says. “At one point, it grew at 45 percent year over year, albeit from a very low basis.”

The ratio of total consumer debt to GDP remains low, at roughly 15 percent, he reports, but interest rates are high. “As a result, a combination of low stock — the debt itself — and high flow — interest payments — became such that monthly increases of consumer debt became equal to monthly payments, on the aggregate level. Economic growth slowed, as a result, while banks were doing very well — in real terms, the financial sector expanded ten times faster than the entire economy.”

至于油价下跌破坏经济复苏，加夫里连科夫并不买账。他坚称：“只要汇率不受央行直接或间接影响，只要货币政策是正统的，任何油价都对俄罗斯有利。”。“低油价和疲软的卢布不是威胁，因为外债总额很低。”

对那些把产品运到其他国家的公司来说，这是一个福音。Sberbank股票策略师邦德（Bond）表示：“由于我们相信卢布将随石油一起走弱，出口商的表现可能会好于预期。”。“国内企业可能表现不佳，银行最容易受到经济增长疲弱和卢布走软的影响。”

他认为投资者有两个特别的亮点。邦德补充道：“首先是零售业或住宅建筑业等渗透率较低的领域，在疲弱的经济环境下，这些领域有可能实现增长。”。“第二个是众所周知的观察，即回报取决于股本回报率，而不是GDP增长。在竞争有限的稳定宏观经济环境下，净资产收益率水平有可能保持相对较高的水平。”