Sberbank Unseats VTB Capital Atop 2015 All-Russia Research Team

There’s been upbeat news out of俄国lately. The nation’s economy contracted by only 1.9 percent year over year in the first quarter, far less than many analysts were expecting, and the benchmark Russian Trading System index has been on a tear, bolting 22.5 percent year to date through May.

这些信号表明去年开始的金融危机的结束，引发了falling oil prices以及制裁imposed by Western nations in response to Russian intervention in Ukraine?

Don’t count on it, many market observers warn.

“俄罗斯股票的反弹有两种主要司机 - 石油价格的反弹和闽士二世的成功”两国停火协议，观察Kingsmill Bond, head of equity strategy at Sberbank CIB in Moscow. “We do not expect the bull market to continue over the summer, as we expect oil prices to fall back.”

Dmitry Dmitriev在VTB Capital的全球研究负责人，补充说，讨价还价猎人在很大程度上推动了当前的浪涌。“外部冲击在年底达到了高潮，就像风险溢价一样，”他解释道。“我们相信最近反映风险奖励余额的股票市场价格后，市场可能会暂停，以确定风险溢价和恢复程度的进一步趋势。”

The latter point is very much on the minds of investors, many of whom look to the sell side to reconcile the seeming contradictions between official forecasts made by the Putin government and far more modest outlooks posited by analysts and economists. The firm whose advice they value most is Sberbank, which rises one rung to reclaim the top spot on the All-Russia Research Team,亚博赞助欧冠独家每年排名全国最佳卖方研究人员。它在11个部门获得12个职位，在公司债务中排名两次，但未能出现在公用事业中。

Moreover, fully half of this year’s top-ranked researchers hail from the firm, including all four who lead Economics & Strategy sectors: Bond (Equity Strategy),Alexey Bulgakov(Corporate Debt),Evgeny Gavrilenkov.（经济学）和Alexander Kudrin(Fixed-Income Strategy). That’s at least double the number of first-place finishes claimed by any other firm.

Last year的赢家,俄罗斯外贸银行资本,to second place after losing three positions, leaving it with 11. Deutsche Bank’s total of seven also reflects a loss of three; nonetheless the firm remains rooted in third place for a seventh consecutive year. Rounding out the top five are Bank of America Merrill Lynch, with six spots (one fewer than in 2014); and UBS, whose total of five is unchanged from last year.

这些结果反映了340个个人在240个买方机构中的意见，这些机构监督估计的俄罗斯股权和固定收入资产1210亿美元。

A total of 13 firms are included on this year’s roster, including two that appear for the first time: Barclays and BCS Financial Group. Click on the Leaders link in the navigation table at right to view the full list.

以莫斯科为基础的Kudrin，在11月份更换了Paolo Zaniboni作为Sberbank的研究负责人，相信俄罗斯的经济复苏面临着几种威胁。“首先，我会在局势整体管理中提及当局的潜在错误。他指出，危机需要快速和平衡的决定，这不是一件容易的工作，“他指出。“第二个大风险是外部环境，在这里我们主要是指油价动态。第三款威胁是该国的整体投资环境。“

Deutsche’s head of Russian company research, Yaroslav Lissovolik, agrees. “The greatest risks to economic recovery include the lack of structural reform momentum and external headwinds associated with oil price dynamics and geopolitics,” says the Moscow-based analyst, who ranks second inEconomicsand third inEquity Strategy. “We see these risks as being still quite palpable and significant in suppressing Russia’s growth momentum in the near term.”

但VTB Capital的Dmitriev更乐观。莫斯科的研究主任相信，“俄罗斯经济在严重震动恰逢结构放缓时恰逢严重冲击后，展示了很高的能力。”“逐步稳定是在下半年继续，全年[真正的国内生产总值]收缩在3至3.5％的范围内。我们预计它将在2016年恢复缓慢，这是由较柔软的货币政策鼓励的实际收入和投资驱动的。“

Sberbank’s Gavrilenkov, who celebrates his eighth straight year atNo. 1 in Economics— the longest winning streak among currently ranked researchers — points out that it’s difficult to anticipate what steps policymakers will take.

“基本上，我像往常一样呼吁当前的情况”危机“，这意味着每当油的价格下降时，就有一种危机的看法，”莫斯科的经济学家主张。不幸的是，他补充道，政府和央行并不总是更加适当的反应。“我不会提到所有的政策错误和实验，但近年来减速的一个原因是，直到2012年 - 13年，由于消费者贷款的太快扩张，增长很大程度上是推动的，”Gavrilenkov说。“在一点上，它达到了45％，虽然来自一个非常低的基础。”

他报道，总消费者债务总债务与GDP的比率仍然低15％，但利率高。“因此，低股票 - 债务本身 - 和高流量利息支付的组合 - 成为消费者债务的月度增加，即在总层面上的每月付款。经济增长放缓，而银行在实际上做得很好，金融部门比整个经济速度快十倍。“

As for falling oil prices’ undermining the recovery, Gavrilenkov isn’t buying it. “Any price of oil is good for Russia as long as the exchange rate is not affected directly or indirectly by the central bank and as long as monetary policy is orthodox,” he insists. “Low oil prices and a weak ruble are not a threat, as total foreign debt is low.”

And they’re a boon to companies that ship their products to other countries. “Exporters are likely to outperform, as we believe the ruble will weaken along with oil,” says Bond, the Sberbank equity strategist. “Domestics are likely to underperform, and banks are most vulnerable to weak growth and a weaker ruble.”

He sees two especially bright spots for investors. “The first is areas of low penetration such as retailing or homebuilding, where it is possible to get growth in a weak economic environment,” Bond adds. “The second is the well-known observation that returns depend on return on equity, not on GDP growth. In a stable macroeconomic environment with limited competition, it is possible for ROE levels to remain relatively high.”