J.P. Morgan Tops All-America Fixed-Income Research Team for 6th Year

In testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services in mid-July, Federal Reserve Board chair Janet Yellen reiterated her oft-stated message that the central bank could raise rates this year provided the U.S. economy continues to strengthen. Despite her upbeat tone, however, Yellen declined to specify when the board would act, prompting many market observers to draw their own conclusions.

DoubleLine Capital co-founder and legendary bond investorJeffrey Gundlach.那a panelist at the 2015Delivering Alpha由机构投资者和CNBC亚博篮球怎么下串赞助的会议在纽约举行的Ye亚博赞助欧冠llen作证的同一天，告诉观众not to expect an increase before 2016. “When Yellen says she will raise rates if economic growth improves, people hear ‘she will raise rates.’ But that’s not what she said,” the CEO insisted.

然而，惠尔斯法尔戈证券的信贷研究负责人李烧结表示，他的团队认为政策制定者将于9月份发出小额徒步旅行。“我认为很多人在'让我们得到这个25个基点上徒步旅行'，但我相信更大的问题将是有后续徒步旅行的速度，”他说。这将取决于exogenous factors那such as China’s economic growth, Greece’s future in the euro zone and the price and supply of oil, adds Brading, who is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

“我们对升降日期的预测是2015年12月，”纽约州萨克斯＆“高盛”的全球信用战略负责人查尔斯Himmelberg。“我们认为9月徒步旅行者在六月会议上需要更清晰的信号，因为我们认为联邦公开市场委员会希望在九年首次提高资金率时，在霍基斯方面令人遗憾。”

He does not rule out the possibility that the Fed could act sooner, though. “A hike in September could again become our baseline if we were to see much stronger-than-expected activity or inflation data over the next few months, a sharp easing of financial conditions or a combination of the two,” Himmelberg explains. “But we think a December liftoff date is both more likely and better policy.”

Until the Fed follows words with action, investors will continue to wonder what will happen and when — and many will look to the sell side for help in contextualizing each newly released market data point. The firm whose insights they hold in highest esteem is J.P. Morgan, which leads the All-America Fixed-Income Research Team for a sixth consecutive year. Of the 57 sectors that produce publishable results, J.P. Morgan analysts earn a place in 49 — one more than last year.

In second place for a fourth year running is Bank of America Merrill Lynch, whose total jumps by four, for a firm record of 45. Wells Fargo rises one rung to No. 3, even though its total is unchanged at 28. Its advance is propelled by losses at Barclays, which slips to fourth place after losing five spots, leaving it with 25. Goldman Sachs repeats at No. 5 despite the loss of four positions, reducing its total to 20.

Fourteen firms appear on this year’s roster. Click on theLeaderslink in the navigation table at right to view the full list.

要查看每个部门的排名排名的分析师和团队，请点击一年中最好的分析师。

另一个著名的金融家,6月下旬卡尔Icahn, raised eyebrows by warning on Twitter that he believes the market is “extremely overheated — especially high-yield bonds.” Peter Acciavatti, who captains the J.P. Morgan group that claims an astonishing 13th straight victory in High-Yield Strategy, begs to differ.

“I don’t believe the outperformance of high-yield bonds has run its course,” he says. “With Treasury yields moving higher this year, high-yield bonds are easily outperforming other, more rate-sensitive asset classes, such as investment-grade bonds. With the Fed expected to raise rates later this year and next, I would expect high-yield bonds to continue to outperform against most fixed-income asset classes.”

Acciavatti吹嘘担心利率增加将在美联储官员首先提到结束定量宽松之后的几年前将市场送到类似的尾模。纽约的战略家表示，“我们认为这一影响将是轻微的，目前的市场估值看起来很有吸引力。”“特别是，今天市场的收益率为7％和546个基点的分布 - 远高于2013年5月初的5％和437个基点水平，前往”锥度发脾气“。此外，此外，目前的价格在违约率下差价率较近4％，远远超过目前的1.7％，我们的年终预测为1.5％，甚至我们在明年年底之前的3％预测，能源默认可能会接收。“

Even so, he acknowledges that the sector could suffer collateral damage. “We still expect the market to see outflows from retail mutual funds as the high-yield asset class gets incorrectly lumped in with other, more rate-sensitive asset classes,” the crew chief advises. “This should lead to some temporary weakness but not much more.”

该团队对投资者的建议？“凭借健康的信贷条件，低违约率和涨幅，我们认为基金管理人员应该赞成单一B级债券和第二次债券的第二次留置权贷款，”Acciavatti说。

他的同事Eric Beinstein，他在信用衍生物（带Dominique Toublan）和投资级策略中掌舵队伍，使得今年挣扎的高档债券是准备的。

In recent months the difference between high yield and investment grade yields has narrowed, a phenomenon driven by trends in the energy sector as well as retail flows, Beinstein explains.

“Year-to-date energy spreads are tighter, as they had a strong sell-off in the fourth quarter,” he says. “This has contributed to the outperformance of high yield versus investment grade, as energy has a higher weight in the high-yield index.”

基于纽约的分析师补充说，纽约的分析师补充说，强劲的美元损害了更高质量的发行人，而不是其风险的对应者，因为前者更依赖于全球销售，而后者更依赖国内收入趋势（不包括能源部门。）“我们认为投资级可能在下半年优越，随着较高的财政收益率比高收益率更高的资金产量比高收益率更高。”

高盛Hammelberg举行了类似的观点。“相对于投资等级，高产市场更为暴露于面临世俗挑战的行业。具体而言，金属和矿业和海上钻探者在一起的高收益市场中总比例的总重量约为6.5％，“他指出。“第二，我们认为今年新闻卷的压力更加重视投资等级，而且我们预计这一技术压力将在今年下半年慢慢恢复新问题。我们的年终预测暗示投资级差价将追溯其2014年的所有扩大，从而重新审视他们的6月紧身衣，而高收益率差价将恢复较少，暗示投资级别到高收益率在下半年的投资蔓延减压。“

Wells Fargo’s Brading, who repeats in second place in the Building sector, notes that for high yield to continue to outperform, “we would need to see a material rally from the energy and materials sectors, and current global economic conditions indicate that commodities prices are unlikely to strengthen in the near term. We appreciate high yield’s domestic focus and the relative cushion that the incremental spread component offers in a rising-rate environment; however, the current challenges facing the asset class and yield distribution make portfolio construction increasingly challenging.”

投资组合经理如何让自己获得的opp呢ortunities inherent is such a scenario? “We are recommending that investors position for a flatter [ten-year versus 30-year] investment-grade bond spread curve,” Beinstein responds. “The curve has already flattened by about 12 basis points from its peak in the first quarter, and we believe this will continue as long-end Treasury yields rise. Overall, we believe that spreads will likely tighten between now and the end of the year, given that yields and spreads are more attractive than they have been in a while, and the U.S. economy is doing well.”

Specifically, the J.P. Morgan analysts advise underweighting sectors where spreads are tight and M&A is active — aerospace and defense, consumer products, manufacturing and technology — and overweighting cable and satellite names, subordinated debt of large-cap bank holding companies and pipeline offerings, among others.

“We expect issuance to remain active for the remainder of the year, but somewhat slower than the pace in the first half,” Beinstein says. “This is being driven by M&A, companies raising funds to pay more to shareholders, and also the view by some corporate treasurers that bond yields will likely be higher in a year or two, so it is prudent to issue now. We expect full-year 2015 issuance to be about 15 percent above last year’s record amount of supply.”

Scott Marchakitus, Goldman Sachs’ director of credit research, says his firm recently revised its forecast for investment-grade issuance from $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion this year. This demand is “driven primarily by a significant increase in acquisition financing that has already taken place and the continuation of a strong funding pipeline,” he explains. “Although we just passed the $800 billion mark [as of July 14], we think M&A financing and a desire to enhance shareholder returns should keep new supply flowing through year end, albeit at a slightly slower pace than the first half of the year.”

这一新供应的大部分将在消费产品中;金融服务;卫生保健;Marchakitus说，媒体和电信行业，总部位于纽约的技术，媒体和电信行业。

The financial sector in particular will be making up for lost time. “Through the second quarter U.S. bank issuance was up 8 percent year over year versus 18 percent for the investment-grade market, so it’s arguably measured versus the record pace overall,” observes Wells Fargo’s James Strecker, who vaults from third place to claim his first appearance in the winner’s circle in Banks. However, with a Fed proposal on total loss-absorbing capacity, or TLAC — a capital-adequacy-ratio requirement included in Basel III — expected in early September, “bank issuance may experience less of its typical second-half slowdown this year,” he adds.

TLAC可能导致美国最大的贷款人在高级债务，Strecker估计中占用了额外的2830亿美元。

That’s not necessarily cause for optimism for fixed-income investors, however. “If U.S. banks were not able to definitively outperform during the first half of 2015 despite being aided by supportive technical and fundamental tailwinds, the prospects are even less likely in the second half, as this positive backdrop is likely to change,” he contends.

Valuations remain stretched, the Charlotte-based analyst adds, and banks are susceptible to underperforming during bouts of volatility and weakness, because they are an efficient vehicle to bring down risk quickly, given the sector’s size and inherent liquidity. “As such, we remain comfortable with our market-weight allocation but reiterate that our bias is for spreads to widen,” he says. “Furthermore, we prefer short-dated debt given that performance has lagged out the curve amid the moves in Treasuries and given that TLAC issuance is likely to be longer dated.”

2015年全美固定收入研究团队反映了超过2,090名投资组合经理和买边分析师的意见，在大约540个机构中监督美国固定收入资产的估计为9.6万亿美元。