3 Firms Top 2015 Latin America Research Team Roster

面临的挑战China and Greecehave dominated headlines in recent months and overshadowed a number of similar crises afflicting拉美n economies。该地区许多国家正在努力增长放缓，贬值货币，失业率上升和提高了政治紧张局势。

In July the International Monetary Fund slashed its outlook for Latin America’s real gross domestic product growth, from 0.9 percent to 0.5 percent this year and from 2 percent to 1.7 percent in 2016.

Even with this downgrade, some market observers believe the IMF is being too optimistic.

“Latin American economies have decelerated substantially and are now facing the challenge of recovering in a global context that includes Chinese deceleration,商品price corrections和美国，“在圣保罗伊萨•BBA研究总监Carlos Constanti主任Carlos Constanti主任。“在这方面，我们预测拉丁美洲加州GDP于2015年增长0.3％，2016年增长1.6％。”

纽约的美洲股权研究，纽约的纽约头部，美国银行林林酒店预计今年仅为0.2％的经济扩张;虽然J.P. Morgan预期了0.1％的收缩，而且很大程度上在该地区最大的市场中烦恼，Brazil。

Related Content2015年 拉美 Sales Team2015年8月5日拉丁美洲 顶级企业访问提供商2015年8月6日

“The uncertainty surrounding policy and its impact on the economy — and the ongoing investigation of bribery allegations — should continue to weigh on both consumer and business confidence,” explains Pedro Martins Jr., who oversees Latin American equity research at J.P. Morgan in São Paulo. “Political momentum has diminished, and the government’s approval ratings have fallen. As a result, the government is likely to face further difficulties in implementing its agenda, jeopardizing the quality and the duration of the fiscal policy adjustment.”

Add in falling commodities prices and a decline in agricultural production owing to a below-average rainy season, and the result is “less predictability and more volatility in the economy, jeopardizing the timing of a recovery,” he says. “The recession likely will be deeper, and the recovery likely will take longer.”

Against such a tumultuous backdrop, money managers are eager to be kept informed of the latest developments and obtain insights into how they can position their portfolios more effectively. But they are divided as to which firm does the best job of providing guidance. This year three firms share the top spot on亚博赞助欧冠在拉丁美洲研究团队：Bofa Merrill，第四位的金库;itaú，升起一个梯级;并返回冠军J.P. Morgan。每个人都在调查的25个部门中获得一个地方。

However, when a weighting of four is assigned to each first-place position, three to each second-place position, and so on, J.P. Morgan is the clear winner, with a weighted score of 56 to BofA Merrill’s 52. BTG Pactual — which comes in fourth overall, with 19 appearances — finishes third in the weighted results, with a score of 48, just ahead of Itaú’s 46. Credit Suisse is No. 5 on both rosters. It claims 14 positions and a score of 33.

Click on the领导者link in the navigation table at right to view the full list of 13 firms represented on this year’s team, orWeighting the Resultsto see how these institutions compare when the aforementioned formula is applied.

该表还在每个扇区中的第一名，第二个和第三个位置提供了与船员的档案的链接（加上竞赛者列表，在适用的情况下），以及关于每个团队首次出现在其部门的信息，总数出现迄今为止，第1号（适用）的总出现以及来自金钱经理的评论，关于与同行中的每个小队区分开的内容。

调查结果反映了915个投资专业人员在460多个机构中的意见，这些机构共同管理拉丁美洲股票的3880亿美元，大约是30030亿美元的拉丁美洲债务。

区域增长预测，同时惨淡，不要讲述整个故事。“在拉丁美洲内，我们看到三个明显的GDP途径，”Bofa Merrill的Hodess说。“一，墨西哥— which is less impacted by China and commodities prices — should grow above the average.” Chile, Colombia and秘鲁由于更有效的政府政策，他应该在相对的基础上做得好，而他增加了“阿根廷那Venezuela巴西应该平均下来，因为我们预期所有三个都在经济衰退。“

鉴于当前的宏观经济形势,哈哈rdly surprising that Latin America is home to some of the world’s worst-performing stock markets: Colombia, down 26.5 percent in the first seven months of the year, in dollar terms; Brazil, down 21.4 percent; Peru, down 14.1 percent; Chile, down 9.8 percent; and Mexico, down 5 percent. (During the same period the S&P 500 advanced 2.2 percent.) Ordinarily such losses would create fertile ground for bargain hunters, but that may not be the case this time.

“我们还没有看到股票市场上的买入机会，我们仍然认为估值可以通过一些纠正，”Itaú的Constantini致力于。“到目前为止，我们所看到的是拉丁美洲市场的表现，反映了每个国家的基本面，包括资本成本上涨 - 以及盈利期望下降。”

巴西的情况说明了他的观点。“尽管是美元条款最糟糕的表现者之一，但我们认为这只是反映了盈利降级和资本成本的一部分，”康涅狄格州康涅狄格州（Constantini）表示，该集团的领导者升级为该国家的覆盖范围。“事实上，拉丁美洲目前的估值仍然高于大多数国家的历史平均值，这可能符合其他全球新兴市场 - 即使是发达的市场 - 但可能在风险风险环境中不可持续。“

Guilherme Paiva— who guides the Morgan Stanley squad to a fourth straight victory in Equity Strategy (and also leads teams that earn runner-up positions for coverage of Argentina, with Cesar Medina, and Brazil) — shares a similar view.

纽约的策略师表示，“尽管如此，但我们仍然对区域股票的前景持续持谨慎态度。“关键原因继续在解决若干经济体的结构挑战，如巴西，哥伦比亚和秘鲁，或者在墨西哥等市场的估值相对苛刻的估值方面存在有限。”

Those aren’t the only reasons. “Latin America still is a heavy commodities-producing region,” he points out. “We will probably need another couple of years before the supply-demand equation for base metals becomes more balanced, providing a tailwind to prices.”

帕瓦说，播放这个市场的方式，是将该地区分为两组。第一个包括智利和墨西哥的国家，它已经走向解决结构挑战的相当距离，第二个包括那些仍有很长一段路要的人。在第一个组合中，该团队建议使用杠杆增长的行业，例如消费者酌情和财务;在第二个中，他们敦促客户考虑防御部门或利用杠杆的人，例如消费者订书钉，选择工业和纸浆。

根据RodrigoGóes，SãoPaulo的股权研究，销售和交易负责人，BTG暂存的分析师也在促进谨慎致辞，至少在短期内。但是，“对于那些具有长期视野的投资者，目前的抛售可能存在良好的入学点。所有国家都有减少的所有国家都会通过调整，最终会创造更新的增长条件。“

他对巴西的提前感到困难。尽管最近的市场溃败，该地区最大的经济体“可能仍然经历了一段时间的波动性，主要是因为该国的凌乱的政治局势和经济前景疲软，”““然而，现在有一些高质量的操作现在正在犯下可能证明良好投资机会的估值。”

Bofa Merrill的团队认为“在拉丁美洲股票的短期内，”在短期内比看不到看跌的更多原因“，”Hodess建议。“巴西在越来越多的政治不稳定和智利较小程度上加剧了商品价格较低，较弱的中国增长和政策决策的影响。”

尽管如此，“股票可以在墨西哥继续胜过墨西哥，鉴于消费部门的恢复以及一个相对更好的宏观环境，应该从美国恢复中受益，”他说。“在智利中，我们喜欢估值，并且尽管经济活动混合，但仍然有限地对货币的缺点风险有限。当地养老基金减少到当地股票的暴露后，估值溢价看起来更加平衡。“

In late July, J.P. Morgan upgraded the latter market from underweight all the way to overweight, Martins reports, making the case that “political noise in Chile will moderate in a context of attractive valuations and more realistic earnings-per-share estimates” of 11 percent this year and 13 percent in 2016.

At the same time the analysts downgraded Peru from overweight to underweight, on the belief that low commodities prices could weaken growth and the nuevo sol against the dollar. “Roughly 60 percent of exports and more than 10 percent of fiscal revenue in Peru are related to metal commodities, and currency weakening will affect companies’ earnings given their exposure to nonhedged dollar-denominated debt,” explains Martins, who helms the squad that claims第二名股权战略第二次立年。

BTG Pactual has dubbed Chile its top pick among the Andean countries. “Chile’s economy has relatively stronger fundamentals than its peers, while valuations are at historical low levels,” Góes maintains. “Colombia remains our least-preferred country in the region, as earnings visibility is very low at this point.”

Itaú正在其他地方指导投资者的关注。“从今天的水平起，考虑到一个12个月的地平线，我们仍然有利于拉丁美洲市场之间的墨西哥，以损害巴西，”Constantini说。“这些是我们模型组合中最重要的超重和体重减轻姿势。”