尽管担心市场波动，但国家信贷仍然存在

The stock market is not the real economy. That mantra seems to have been taken to heart by many of those involved in evaluating credit risk around the world.

A sharpdrop in Chinese equitiesin the past two months has triggered a bout ofglobal financial volatility那pushing stocks into correction territory in most major markets and arousing concern about the health of the worldwide economy. Yet global creditworthiness remains remarkably steady, according to the latest亚博赞助欧冠Country Credit survey. The average rating on the 179 countries in the survey is unchanged from six months ago, at 44.1 on a scale of zero to 100. Ratings of the major industrialized countries show little movement, even in the euro zone. There are numerous declines among countries in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, but these are largely offset by increases in a number of Asian ratings.

Such zigs and zags are typical in the semiannual survey. What’s unusual this time is the diminutive scale of the movements. Most of the ups and downs are no more than a point or two, more like a technical correction than a change of heart. The only significant exception, not surprisingly, is希腊那which went to the brink of default in its standoff with its euro zone partners in June and July. The country’s rating falls another 10.5 points; Greece now ranks 145th in the survey, sandwiched between Myanmar and Togo.

“Things move in cycles in geopolitics and in the economy,” says Admiral James Stavridis, “and as we come out of a period of real political turbulence, particularly in the Arab world, it’s looking like the economic drivers are going to be coming into play.” But Stavridis, the dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in suburban Boston, and Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO from 2009 to 2013, says it’s not yet clear where those drivers are propelling the global economy.

说:“人们采取了观望的态度Fabian Briegel, an economist at Rabobank in the Netherlands. Creditworthiness is treading water because the good news is never quite good enough, while the bad news is never quite disastrous. A sense of waiting for the other shoe to drop permeates five critical issues.

The biggest question mark is China. Its rating is down only 1.1 points, and the country actually rises one place, to 25th, but observers are increasingly concerned: Do the stock market crisis and recent currency depreciation presage a real crash, a bursting of bubbles that will reverberate through the world? Or is all this just noise typical of a country transitioning from a hyper-fast growth rate to a lower trajectory? Although annual growth of 6 or 7 percent may mean China is off steroids, it would still be one of the highest rates of any major country.

与此同时，西欧似乎似乎在斯塔利迪斯说。希腊在希腊叙利亚总理亚历克斯·泰普拉斯政府爆炸，要求债务救济，欧洲伙伴仍然令人垂下，最后一个月谈判另一个救助。在本调查中不仅有68.9％的受访者预测其评级将在明年进一步下降，98.6％表示，这将在两年内违约。尽管希腊正在进行的艰难斗争，但欧洲其他地区的评级已停止跌倒。Stavridis将这一点归因于越来越多的信心，即“欧洲人，像往常一样，将混乱。”

The U.S. remains on its steady, unspectacular growth path thanks to a sizable upward revision of second-quarter gross domestic product. The big question continues to revolve aroundthe Federal Reserve Board。中国的动荡和华尔街的急剧下降揭示了许多分析师，以及一些美联储的内部人士，建议第一率徒步旅行的另一个推迟可能是有序的，但消息来自堪萨斯市艾滋病福利的年度的消息杰克逊洞研讨会在8月底，指出，今年仍然在牌中仍然在牌中。调查受访者似乎有信心这次美联储不会眨眼：74.7％表示，它将在下半年提高利率;24.0％认为它将在2016年上半年搬家。

对于大多数高级国家来说，毫无疑问是众多的评分。Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Deviond International研究学院的Afshin Molavi表示，这肯定是工业化国家的案例，他是牛津分析的高级顾问。“美国正在表现出谦虚增长的迹象;欧洲正在表现出适度增长的迹象。它绝不是令人印象深刻的。这是一种普遍的香草，但人们说，'我现在会接受'，“Molavi笔记。

Elsewhere, Vladimir Putin’s saber-rattling is driving down ratings not only inRussia(–3.8 points) and乌克兰（-3.6）但在整个东欧。“普京被冻结到位，因为油价如此之低，所以我不认为你会看到他的任何严重冒险主义，”斯塔维利斯说。

然后有能量。压裂和越来越多的美国能源独立已经改变了全球能源市场和抑郁价格;遏制伊朗核计划的外交协议威胁要通过释放新鲜的伊朗供应来击倒价格。“这oil market在等待伊朗的交易将会通过并结束对伊朗的制裁，“一位纽约银行风险分析师表示。“如果是这样，可预见的未来，油价将低于70美元。”由于能源价格低，调查受访者标志着一系列石油生产商，但只有一点点。与此同时，由于廉价的能量，没有国家似乎被标记为。如果有的话，更便宜的能源的新时代是为令人惊讶的是令人痛心的是令人痛心的。

Emerging markets继续奋斗，近几个月解释了来自EM债券的资本持续流出。BNP Paribas的新兴经济体的研究负责人表示，这些国家的许多国家都是商品出口商，他们的问题不再只是持久的全球增长和低廉的价格。“现在，所有商品出口国的关键问题是由于美国美元的价格较低，而且由于美元的价格较低，因此债务负担的增加，因此偿还更难，”他说。他预计2016年的增长预测将修改下降，特别是拉美那because of the high dollar’s double whammy.

“Over the last few months, there’s been a change in the emerging-markets narrative,” says Molavi. The weakest links are in拉美and Africa, so it’s no surprise their ratings have turned down a bit, he says, while in Asia “because of the consumption story, because of the demographics, because of the growth that’s still taking place, they’re the ones that are holding out the longest.”

一旦所有的眼睛都在美国，希望它能够扩展到足够快的时间来购买很多世界的商品并提升每个人的经济。但现在许多经济和评级的命运，在中国的手中。随着中国的发展，存在日益增长的看法，因此全球经济和全球信誉。中国现在不仅是第二大经济体，近年来一直是全球增长的最大贡献者，超越美国。作为机车。

So is China on the right track or wrong track? BNP’s Faure is convinced that monetary loosening and other policy moves “will succeed in stimulating the economy.” And China’s currency devaluation “was good for them given the circumstances,” says John Sharma, an economist at National Australia Bank.

Molavi说，中国是一个“中等着陆，但不是一个坚硬的着陆”，其领导者积极地拉动所有的杠杆，推动所有按钮阻止市场溃败并支持经济。“政府正面临着真正的考验，”他说。它的成绩不是“他们可以捕获多少腐败官员，而是通过表现出中国可能在一个下循环中，他们可以平息世界 - 这可能发生在任何一个国家 - 但它正在接受负责任的政策搬家’t look panicky.” Recent policies, notably efforts to prop up stock prices, have in fact looked panicky, he contends. Chinese leaders, says Molavi, “are not doing a good job of instilling confidence in their economic management, and doing that is as important as a massive stimulus program.”

在中国的信心对于许多国家来说至关重要，Molavi说：“如果你拍摄了中国的世界末日景观，你也将参加全球经济的世界末日景观。”