Kotak Securities Leads 2015 All-India Research Team

印度最大、历史最悠久的券商之一科塔克证券（Kotak Securities）跃升两级，首次在全印度研究团队中排名第一，亚博赞助欧冠美国最畅销股票分析师年度独家排名。该公司在16个行业的调查中获得了11个团队职位，比2014年增加了两个。

Credit Suisse bounds from fifth place to second in its strongest showing since this ranking was introduced, in 2011. The Swiss bank also increases its team total by two, to nine.

The year’s biggest upward mover — by far — is Macquarie Capital Securities, which more than doubles its number of positions, from three to seven, and rockets from No. 12 to share third place with last year’s winner, Morgan Stanley. The latter firm’s total falls by four.

然而，当给每个排名第一的位置分配四分，给每个排名第二的位置分配三分，以此类推时，运行顺序会发生显著变化。瑞士信贷（creditsuisse）在加权结果中排名第一，得分为28:Kotak的26。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）稳居第3位，为16位。排在第四位的是德意志银行（deutschebank），得分为12分，在未加权结果中排名第八（与美国银行美林（bankofamerica Merrill Lynch）和野村证券（Nomura））并列四位。麦格理（Macquarie）的加权得分为11分，与野村（Nomura）并列第五。点击领导人link in the navigation table at right to view the full list of 22 ranked firms, orWeighting the Results看看当应用上述公式时，这些研究提供者的表现如何。

This year’s team features 71 analysts, including 15 peopleappearing for the first time. To view the individuals in first place in each sector,click here或在导航表中选择适当的链接以获取更多信息。这个概述重点介绍了今年调查中一些更值得注意的结果。

The 2015 All-India Research Team reflects the opinions of more than 250 buy-side analysts and money managers at nearly 150 institutions that collectively manage an estimated $120 billion in Indian equity assets.

In May 2014, when probusiness纳伦德拉·莫迪就任印度总理后，全球投资者欢呼雀跃，纷纷将资金以创纪录的速度注入印度股市，标准普尔孟买证券交易所敏感指数（S&P Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index，简称Sensex）年内飙升约30%。股票价格不断攀升2015年初，印度储备银行（Reserve Bank of India）将回购利率下调25个基点至7.5%，令市场大吃一惊，3月份该指数首次突破3万点。

然而，这种快感很快就消失了。截至10月末，该指数已下跌近10%，至26657点，尽管该国实际国内生产总值（gdp）仍保持强劲增长。同一个月World Bankaffirmed its forecast of a 7.5 percent expansion for the current fiscal year (which runs through March) and predicted the economy would grow by 7.8 percent in fiscal 2016.

Why, then, aren’t investors more upbeat?

“印度市场的估值修正its more normal range of 13 to 17 times 12-month forward multiples after trading at very high multiples — 18 to 20 times — following the formation of the new government and related high expectations of economic reforms,” explains Sanjeev Prasad, Kotak’s co-head of institutional equities in Mumbai. “The government has implemented certain reforms, and India’s macroeconomic position has improved significantly, but these have yet to translate into any sustained economic recovery and earnings upgrades. In fact, we continue to see earnings downgrades on weak underlying economic trends in both consumption and investment.”

他补充道，市场参与者可能预期得太多太快，当前的低迷可能反映出他们的失望。此外，“在全球大宗商品价格has resulted in significant earnings cuts in the metals andoil以及天然气行业，它们在市场收益中占据了相当大的份额，”他指出。

Morgan Stanley’s Chetan Ahya, who extends his winning streak in Economics to a fifth year and is one of only two individuals to have turned in a sector-topping performance every year since the All-India Research Team was introduced (Deutsche Bank consumer analyst Manoj Menon is the other), believes that the problems plaguing India are not internal, for the most part.

“Global factors are largely responsible for the weak absolute performance of the equity markets,” he says. “The weak external environment remains a drag in the current cycle. This is being reflected in weak export growth and resultant low capacity utilization.”

印度n exports have fallen sharply every month this year. In September, for example, the value of merchandise shipped abroad plunged more than 24 percent year over year, to $21.8 billion, according to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

“全球和地区经济增长放缓的另一个方面是贸易品持续的通货紧缩趋势，”这位香港经济学家补充道。批发价格指数的这种趋势正在损害工业企业部门的收入增长，并对名义GDP增长构成压力。事实上，这种疲弱的外部环境对私营企业的信心产生了不利影响，并阻碍了私人资本支出的复苏步伐。”

尼尔坎特·米什拉（Neelkanth Mishra）也持有类似的观点，他在投资组合策略中首次荣登榜首（同时也庆祝自己在基础材料领域首次出现在赢家圈）。这位瑞士信贷策略师观察到，印度国家证券交易所（National Stock Exchange of India）基准指数中的50家公司中，近一半的收入“不是卢比——它们要么是出口商，要么收入受到全球定价的影响，如石油和金属生产商、炼油厂和石化产品制造商。”。“即使是另一半也面临全球趋势。银行是这类公司的重要组成部分，许多银行对受全球大宗商品价格低迷影响的公司都有很大的敞口。”

这并不意味着当前股市的下跌提供了买入机会。总部位于孟买的米什拉（Mishra）报告称：“全球股市的市盈率溢价仍在10%至15%之间，而2007年和2010年的水平明显高于现在，当时人们对印度的乐观情绪远低于现在。”。“我们不指望与全球有联系的公司——特别是大宗商品生产商和那些与这类公司有业务往来的公司——表现良好。尽管估值很低，但最好还是避开他们的股票。”

Kotak’s Prasad also urges caution. “The market is trading at fair valuations, at 15.5 times fiscal 2017 estimated earnings per share, but there are very few bottom-up ideas,” he says. “The good-quality growth stocks such as private banks, consumer staples and药品are still trading at expensive valuations.” Many companies in the latter two sectors have fallen short of market forecasts insofar as earnings are concerned, he adds, while private banks continue to face challenges with regard to nonperforming loans.

米什拉同样建议客户要有选择性。他认为，公司债务负债有限的私人银行和非银行金融公司在未来一年的表现将超过大盘。他还看好信息技术和公用事业板块。他说，要避免的行业包括工业和电信业。

Although structural reforms implemented by the Modi administration have already had a positive impact, more needs to be done, according to Ahya. “In order to sustain growth at 7 to 8 percent in the medium term, the government will need to focus on addressing issues related to land, labor, tax, the policy regime related to infrastructure and overall ease of doing business,” the Morgan Stanley economist contends. “Some policy actions have been forthcoming in these areas, as seen by steps taken to improve the ease of doing business, some steps taken for labor reforms at the central and state levels, and steps taken to ease the land acquisition process. However, the government will need to make more concerted efforts to ensure a holistic approach is adopted to addressing these issues.”