美国银行Merrill Lynch Tops 2016全欧洲研究团队

World stock markets ushered in 2016 with the worst rout in years, and欧洲did not escape the carnage. The benchmark MSCI Europe index tumbled 7.4 percent in the first month of the new year, its worst January performance since 2008.

Amid all the turmoil, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for global real gross domestic product growth this year to 3.4 percent from 3.6 percent (and U.S. expansion to 2.6 percent from 2.8 percent) — but raised its outlook for the euro zone, from 1.6 percent to 1.7 percent. Continuedlow oil prices将刺激该地区的消费者支出，基于华盛顿的组织维持。

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Not everyone agrees. “We have recently lowered euro zone GDP forecasts to 1.5 percent from 1.6 percent,” reports Simon Greenwell, head of Europe, Middle East andAfrica在伦敦美国Merrill Lynch银行的股票研究。“我们的关注是全球增长 - 特别是美国，我们将GDP从2.4％降至2.1％，这比抵消了能源效益。”

基督徒克尔尼，指导在J.P. Morgan Cazenove覆盖欧洲股票，享有类似的观点。伦敦的研究人员表示，“我们今年的全球增长率为2.5％，预计今年的全球增长率为2.5％，”伦敦的研究人员表示。发达的底层分歧emerging-markets商业周期将持续存在，他解释道，生产力和劳动力的进步较弱地限制了潜在的经济扩张。

However, Kern and his analysts share the IMF’s more optimistic view of the euro zone’s growth prospects. “The boost from a lower euro is still feeding through, credit conditions are improving and the fiscal drag is fading,” he notes.

预测未来几乎不是一个精确的科学，因此今年，今年，今年投资欧洲股票的金钱经理可能会更常见的是销售方面的洞察力，以便有内容 - 而不是移动市场。该公司的指导他们最高度的指导是美国Merrill Lynch的银行，它返回到顶部亚博赞助欧冠’s All-Europe Research Team after falling to fourth place last year. The firm captures 32 positions, six more than in 2015, and its analysts are deemed the best in more sectors than any other firm’s: nine.

Deutsche Bank在第二个地方重复了28个景点，而J.P. Morgan Cazenove - 去年与德国竞争对手联系起来 - 在总落下后的3号。两家公司分享第四位，有23个点，摩根士丹利，拿起一个职位后冉冉梯级;去年的赢家瑞银，七人的总耕作。点击一下Leaderslink in the navigation table at right to see the full results of all ranked firms.

当将4的加权施加到每个第一位置位置时，顺序改变了一些，3到每个第二地点等。BofA Merrill is still triumphant, with a weighted score of 75, while J.P. Morgan Cazenove claims the second tier, with a score of 62. Morgan Stanley, with 60, climbs to third as Deutsche Bank falls to No. 4, with 55. UBS ranks fifth; its score is 46. Click on加权结果在导航表中，以了解应用此公式的每个公司票价。

The survey’s 45 sectors are grouped into three broad areas of coverage: Countries & Regions (nine sectors), Economics & Strategy (four) and Industries (32). When the results of each category are viewed independently, Kepler Cheuvreux outperforms all others in Countries & Regions, J.P. Morgan Cazenove and UBS share first place in Economics & Strategy, and BofA Merrill is No. 1 in Industries.

伦敦德意志银行Emea股权研究负责人Paul Reynolds也认为，欧元区将有点亮点，相对而言，在世界经济上生长日益黯淡。“由于较弱，”由于全球经济势头恶化，“存在明显的迹象美国的增长and emerging markets,” he notes. “European growth momentum is holding up well for now on the back of [European Central Bank] easing, the falling oil prices and easier fiscal policy.”

His colleague Mark Wall captains the team that earns a fifth consecutive victory in Economics. “The factors behind the resilience of euro area growth forecasts in 2015 are just as relevant this year — easy monetary policy, easy fiscal policy and even lower oil prices than we were thinking,” he says. “The combination is particularly supportive for domestic demand. If euro area GDP cannot grow 1.5 to 2.0 percent with these drivers, it never will.”

Next year will likely be more problematic, he adds. “The drivers of the recovery are cyclical not structural,” Wall contends. “Oil prices won’t keep falling into 2017, and fiscal policy won’t be as loose. Nor will monetary policy keep easing. Core inflation troughed in the first half of 2015, and yet more ECB easing will underpin the gradual recovery in core inflation — particularly if the economic recovery proves resilient this year. But losing all the cyclical props means economic growth will probably slow in 2017.”

并非欧元区内的所有市场都将同样受到影响。“在更大的会员国中，增长势头在意大利和西班牙最有利 - 财政和信贷动​​态更加支持，”伦敦经济学家证明“。“Germanyhas the weakness of being the most exposed to trade with [巴西, Russia, India and中国]。“

J.P. Morgan的Kern，他还领导了在涉及联合王国的覆盖范围内出现所有其他人的团队，是向客户提供超重的欧元区股票 - 有一个值得注意的例外。

“国内复苏处于早期阶段，欧洲央行可能会提供进一步的支持，盈利仍然具有重要的上行潜力，”他说。“由于高额代表高度盈利增长股和高度陈述，我们正在对U.K.股票保持长途的股票。commoditiesin the FTSE 100 Index, but remain positive on domestic cyclical names such as U.K. homebuilders.”

Greenwell, who also oversees the BofA Merrill squad that ties for second place (with Richard Paige’s Barclays crew) for reporting on U.K. names, says his analysts are steering investors away from autos, “where we are underweight because of structural margin pressure in China — we have no buys on German autos, which are most exposed” — and toward industrials.

“Our largest variance versus the consensus is euro zone inflation, where we believe at current foreign exchange and oil prices we will see negative inflation by midyear,” he maintains. “The consensus assumes a 0.8 percent positive rate for 2016.”

点击下面的图片查看信息图表突出了2015年全欧洲研究团队调查结果的结果。

通货紧缩将促使欧洲央行采取行动，墙壁相信。“所描绘的消息Mario Draghi.在最后一次新闻发布会上显而易见。除此之外，他似乎代表整个理事会发言，使信息更加可靠，更强大，“德意志银行经济学家认可。但是，“较弱的是欧洲央行员工通胀预测和对中国的风险越大，油价等，欧洲央行越来越有可能宣布更多的量化宽松 - 但在这个阶段，我们认为这不会超过一个他们目前的QE计划的前装。“

2016年全欧洲研究团队反映了784名机构的2,139名货币管理者的意见，这些机构在欧洲股市估计为6万亿美元。

点击一下最佳分析师of the Year in the navigation table to view profiles of the researchers and teams in first, second and third places, and to find information about when they debuted in their sectors, the total number of appearances they have amassed to date, their total appearances at No. 1 (where applicable) and comments from money managers about what distinguishes these analysts from their peers. Also available at that link is a list of squads that earn a runner-up spot in each sector (where applicable). Please note: Information about researchers in the second and third positions, and runners-up, is available tosubscribersonly.

To learn more about how this ranking was compiled, click onMethodology.