J.P. Morgan Tops 2016全欧洲固定收入研究团队

Slowing growth inChina，暴跌商品价格 - 特别是oil- 并令人失望的零售销售数据在美国有助于在2016年的第一周触发全球市场溃败，但这些不是主要的问题投资者根据几家着名公司的全球信用研究负责人，“思想展开。

“清楚地，2016年已经看到风险市场的不稳定启动，”摩根的斯蒂芬·杜拉克（Stephen Dulake）观察在伦敦。“Volatility已经且仍然很高，很难看到近期有意义地下降。而中文macro concerns and falling commodities prices have been factors, they’re not the only factors. On commodities it’s not just that prices have fallen, but rather now that they’re forecast to stay lower for longer.”

Moreover, policymakers’ efforts to jump-start growth and investment are proving largely ineffective. “负利率越来越多地被视为有问题，特别是对于银行业的股票和信贷，这进一步发作的央行政策行动并没有积极影响市场，以“他解释”。“此外，虽然它在不同的市场段中的不同阶段，但我们也在谈论一个非常成熟的信用循环。坦率地说，很难看到任何这些方面的快速修复。“

Dulake’s counterpart at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Michael Maras, believes investor attention will soon turn to the European Central Bank.

“欧洲央行的量化宽松仍然是今年债券市场的主要焦点点，”他坚持。由于商品故事使银行难以实现大约2％的通货膨胀，我们预计今年下半年将在今年下半年的定量宽松宽松。这应该保持政府债券的收益率很低。“

中央银行甚至可能会扩大其资产购买计划，包括公司债券，玛拉斯增加，“但我觉得他们目前有足够的政府债券购买。但是，如果他们确实购买了QE的一部分，那将是一个重大紧缩力量欧洲信贷.”

通过2016年已经塑造了一年的惊喜，这是一个安全的赌注，这是赚钱经理将向销售方面寻求销售方面的帮助，以便有助于了解每个新的发展。谈到欧洲债券和类似仪器的研究时，没有公司比J.P. Morgan更有用，即连续第六个年份全体欧洲固定收入研究团队，亚博赞助欧冠该地区的年度排名最高度的君子rded credit analysts and strategists. The bank’s team-position total surges by nearly 50 percent, from 14 to 20. Its analysts rank in every sector that produces publishable results but one: Investment-Grade Strategy.

Bofa Merrill，与J.P. Morgan共享获奖者的圈子去年，即使它的总数也增加了2号地点，也可以增加17.巴克莱和德意志银行在第三个地方重复第三名。共享第五个位置，有五个职位，是花旗 - 在拿起一个苏格兰和皇家银行的苏格兰后升起了两个梯级，其总持久。调查结果反映了超过750名投资专业人员的意见，在373个买边机构中，欧洲固定收入资产统计地管理估计的6.4万亿美元。

Deutsche Bank’s James Reid pilots the No. 1 team in High-Yield Strategy (for a fourth year running) and the No. 2 crew in Investment-Grade Strategy (for a second year in a row) and co-leads, with Francis Yared, the squad on top in Fixed-Income Strategy — the group’s sixth straight sector-topping appearance. He also believes that all eyes will be on the central bankers.

“欧洲央行将在3月10日会议上增加更多刺激，”雷德说，欧洲央行普遍存在伦敦。“尽管最近的金融市场压力，但您有一个inflation target欧洲央行跌倒了。更大的问题是他们是否会添加任何有助于恢复该地区银行的信心的东西。如果没有运作的银行制度，他们的政策努力通过经济传播，因此对目前对该部门的恐惧进行了兴趣。“

Despite the turmoil that has accompanied the new year, Reid and his associates are relatively upbeat. “We have long targeted 2017 as the next problem year, due to increasing risks of the cycle turning over,” he notes. “We stick to this view even if market levels so far in 2016 raise the risks of a more imminent problem for the global economy and markets. For now we think we’re late cycle but possibly have another year left before it turns over. If correct, European credit should rally back from these elevated levels. The risks are high, though, so we would have sympathy for those with a more defensive outlook given the problems we see slightly further out.”

As does his colleague Caio Natividade, who guides the Deutsche Bank squad from second place to its first appearance atop the Quantitative Analysis roster. “Most of our models are not designed to predict the future and instead focus on adapting quickly to ever-changing markets,” the strategist says. “At the moment, we are defensively positioned. While flat equities, we are short commodities and emerging currencies, while long bond futures. This exposure concurs with the cautious view outlined by our macro strategists, who point to various regional risks acting together to generate broad market risk aversion.”

Although many investors may welcome additional quantitative easing, looser monetary policy will further depress the euro against the dollar, cautions Hans-Guenter Redeker, who guides the Morgan Stanley squad from third place to its first appearance at No. 1 in Currency & Foreign Exchange.

区域货币在1月中旬的美元交易于1.09美元，“我们预测欧元/美元兑美元汇率达到2016年底，欧洲央行持续的金钱印刷和上涨的美国利率削弱了。”“但挥发性资本市场应该防止欧元/美元跌倒。”

投资者会很好地考虑克朗那the London-based strategist adds. The possibility that Sweden’s central bank might shift to a dual-target approach — one that focuses on employment levels as well as the inflation rate, similar to the strategy employed by the U.S. Federal Reserve — “suggests the Riksbank may provide less monetary accommodation compared to what is currently priced in the market,” Redeker believes.