无视市场低迷,国家信用评级Mostly Higher

Plunging stock markets and volatile currencies in January and early February reflected growing fears of a global slowdown, if not outright recession, according to many analysts and investors. Country risk analysts apparently didn’t get the memo. The average rating in亚博赞助欧冠最新的半年国家信用调查从9月份增加0.6点，到44.7的范围为零到100。

两个主要因素推动了增加：

重新评估希腊领导的陷入困境的欧元区国家。The beleaguered nation is far from out of the woods, yet Athens did strike a third debt restructuring agreement in August. Its rating jumps 5.6 points, one of the larger gains in this survey, but that is just a fraction of the ground the country has lost over the past six years. Greece vaults 19 places, to 126th place, leaving it sandwiched between Libya and Pakistan. Other peripheral European Union economies post strong gains, including Ireland (+3.4 points), Italy (+1.3) and Spain (+1.0), while non–EU member Iceland gains 3.9 points.

即使商品出口的价格和数量已经摇摇欲坠，也是在拉丁美洲，中欧和非洲数十个国家更广泛的升级。By contrast, among the top 20 countries in the survey, only South Korea posts a gain of more than a point — the amount considered statistically significant — whereas Canada (–1.5) and Finland (–1.7) suffer significant falls. Most other top-ranked countries show relatively little change.

鉴于聚集在全球经济上的云，评分会增加一些分析师。“当欧洲战略家Vincent Deluard说：”这些人肯定一定是一个良好的心情。“Ned Davis Research，位于威尼斯，佛罗里达州。

In January the World Bank lowered its global growth forecast for 2016, from 3.3 percent to 2.9 percent. The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, trimmed its projections by a tenth of a point, predicting that the 28-nation bloc would grow by 1.9 percent this year, while the euro zone would expand by 1.7 percent. The European Central Bank cut its key deposit rate further into negative territory in December, even as the U.S.联邦储备自2008年以来首次缩小零界限。

So what explains the broad-based gains in European ratings? “There are some modestly improved economic numbers coming out,” says Victoria Marklew, head of country risk management at the北方信托公司。在芝加哥。“你在这些国家中有相当多的内部贬值。爱尔兰走出了树林，西班牙的基本改善，甚至意大利都设法避免灾难。“至于希腊，她说市场观点是“它没有坠毁，所以我可以不再担心它。”但是，她补充说，“并不意味着它不会再来。市场刚刚转向其他东西。“

类似的现象解释了乌克兰的1.1点上升。“它溜出了头条新闻;“人们不再关注它了，”一家德国银行的风险经理说，谈到匿名的条件。

其他地方，中国（+0.1）尽管该国滑动股票市场和人民币疲软的消极情绪引发了噪音，但仍然稳定。

在股市的曲折下，经济正在进行重大转型。就像在它之前的各种各样的亚洲老虎一样，中国已经达到了人均收入水平，不可避免地要求其增长率从10％到12％的水平降至5％至7％的阶段。“只要你在中国没有全面猛烈的艰苦着陆，亚太经合组织的其余部分应该是风暴，”Marklew表示，据称亚太经济合作论坛。

对于许多新兴市场在亚洲和世界各地的经济体中，与中国货币政策对全球资本流动的影响相比，中国放缓的后果已经开始亮起。国际金融研究所计算了新兴市场遭遇了2015年7350亿美元的净资本流出，自1988年以来首次出现净流出。

Moreover, the Bank for International Settlements warns that although some advanced economies have reduced leverage since the 2008–’09 financial crisis, debt has continued to build up in many emerging economies. Hyun Song Shin, head of research at the BIS, notes that the indebtedness of companies in emerging markets as a percentage of GDP has overtaken that of companies in developed markets, while the profitability of emerging-markets companies has fallen below that of developed-markets companies for the first time. Further strengthening of the dollar could have a deflationary effect on the global economy as export-driven nations pursue competitive currency devaluations to bolster their exports, some analysts warn.

To be sure, amid the generally rising tide of ratings, some countries suffer major losses because of specific economic and political problems.Brazil, where recession and a political corruption scandal seem to worsen by the day, drops 6.2 points, one of the biggest declines in the survey, whereasVenezuela，抵制玻利瓦尔贬值了近70％，以2月初的美元兑美元，下降2.7分。约有56％的受访者认为巴西将在六个月内呈现更高的风险，而委内瑞拉的恐惧也是如此。四舍五入前四名下降者，思考43.9％俄国will be riskier, and 34.1 percent fear the same forTurkey。暴跌的油价推动以前不可达到的沙特阿拉伯下降2.3分。

但这些拒绝不仅仅是积极的感受。一个显着的例子是阿根廷，最近当选President Mauricio Macri is trying to restore the country’s access to international markets and promote growth-oriented reforms。该国的评级进展3.6分。

Survey participants don’t deny that “the ability to pay has been reduced for the emerging markets,” as Deluard of Ned Davis Research puts it. But as Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia, says, one result of this development is that “bond prices have improved.” He invokes an old bond market adage, “There’s no such thing as a bad bond, only bad pricing,” and notes that spreads on many emerging-markets bonds have widened, creating what some see as an attractive risk-return play.

Will the confidence last? Northern Trust’s Marklew says the answer may be found in China — not only in its economy but perhaps in its zodiac. The lunar year that began in February is the一年的猴子，元素是火。这意味着，事情“可能是极大的挥发性，但他们最终可能最终有光荣或可怕，”她说。