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Brazil’s Asset Managers See Light at End of Economic Crisis
With a new government led by acting president Michel Temer raising recovery hopes, firms in the Brazil 20 report renewed interest from investors, notably in fixed income.
刚才突破香槟，但巴西的长期投资经理开始对未来感觉更好。
五月的暂停President Dilma Roussefffor alleged budget manipulation and the appointment of a high-powered economic team by interim President Michel Temer have raised hopes that the country’s long economic and political nightmare is drawing to a close. Most analysts expect the Senate will convict Rousseff in an impeachment trial later this year, confirming the political transition, but it may take time for today’s optimism to revive investment flows in a big way and lift markets.
A fiscal binge turned bust, the collapse of commodities prices and the deepening scandal over massive kickbacks at state-owned Petróleo Brasileiro have dealt a harsh blow to the country. The economy is in its third year of recession; Banco Central do Brasil has nearly doubled its policy rate over the past three years, to 14.25 percent, to contain an inflationary spiral; the real plunged by more than 50 percent against the dollar between 2012 and 2015, and the benchmark Ibovespa stock index lost 45 percent from peak to trough. “Everywhere you looked you only saw pessimism,” says Marc Forster, head of the Brazil office of Western Asset Management Co., a Pasadena, California–based outfit.
Temer担任前央行银行家Henrique Meirelles的命名为财务部长和经济学家Ilan Goldfajn，央行总督拥有助人的信心。梅雷斯发誓要加强预算赤字，达到国内生产总值的10％，而Temer正在寻求国会批准，以强加10年，对政府支出进行通胀调整的冻结。Goldfajn已经承诺获得通货膨胀，现在为9.3％，向BCB的目标为4.5％。
Although optimism is growing, investors want to see tangible progress on those goals and make sure the new government won’t be derailed by the so-called Car Wash kickback scandal, which has already forced two members of Temer’s cabinet to resign. “We are seeing some light at the end of the tunnel,” says Allan Hadid, COO of global asset management at BTG Pactual Asset Management in São Paulo. “We have the right doctors. They have the right diagnosis. The problem is the medicine takes time to take effect.”
在巴西20的公司十二岁，亚博赞助欧冠’s ranking of the country’s largest investment managers, saw their assets decline in dollar terms in the 12 months ended March 31, in large part reflecting the real’s 10.4 percent decline during that period. For some firms, though, the underlying business is surprisingly robust.
Demand for high-yielding fixed-income paper and a flight by some investors to larger firms has fueled growth at Itaú Unibanco Asset Management, says Fernando Beyruti, co-head of the São Paulo–based outfit. It ranks second in the Brazil 20 with $138 billion of assets, up 8 percent for the year.
The firm has had net inflows of $3 billion from retail investors so far in 2016, mainly into simple products such as tax-advantaged government bonds, he adds. International clients are starting to look at Brazil again; the hope is that fiscal progress will convince them to commit money. “We are very optimistic about our business here,” says Beyruti.
BTG Pactual在创始人，主席和首席执行官，andréEsteves遭受了沉重的流出，被逮捕了Petrobras Scandal.in November. Esteves, who resigned at the time, returned to the firm as a senior partner following his release by the Supreme Court in April, and investors have begun to return as well, says Hadid. The BTG Pactual GEMM global macro hedge fund saw its assets plunge from nearly $5 billion to just $170 million, but it recovered to some $450 million in mid-June. Hadid credits a steadfast approach. “We paid out all redemptions and all requests for funds — we didn’t side-pocket,” he explains. “Slowly, clients will come back and realize nothing happened. We have been here for the last 20 years. We will still be here.”