J.P. Morgan Tops 2016 All-America Fixed-Income Research Team

世界市场仍然从U.K.撤离欧洲联盟的决定中卷入。自英国退出以来，或Brexit., referendum in late June, investors have been seeking safe havens and pouring money into U.S. government bonds, driving down the yield on the ten-year Treasury notes to its lowest ever daily closing level, 1.37 percent, in early July.

Adding to the sense of uncertainty are conflicting signals about the strength of the U.S. economic recovery. In June the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for real gross domestic product growth by 0.2 percentage point, to 2 percent, and opted not to raise interest rates, although Fed chair Janet Yellen did indicate that further rate hikes are likely this year.

The question is, when?

“We assign a 25 percent chance that the next Fed move will be a 25 basis point rate hike at the September meeting and a 40 percent chance that the next move will be a hike at the December meeting,” declares Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman, Sachs & Co. in New York. “With little chance of hikes in either July or November, this means that our subjective cumulative probability of at least one hike by year end is around two-thirds.”

Hans Redeker，摩根斯坦利的外国外汇战略全球负责人，不同意。伦敦的分析师表示，“我们预计美联储为今年和整个2017年留下的价格保持不变，”“通胀预期没有反弹，进口价格急剧下降。”

The central bank will likely miss its implicit 2 percent inflation target, he adds, even though the economy is operating near full employment.

“美联储可以做的最糟糕的事情是为工程师提前徒步旅行，这将推动实际汇率和破坏投资，”Redeker维持。

在这种动荡的时期，货币管理人员可以理解地渴望建议和指导，以了解他们的投资组合的最佳方式，而涉及美国信贷市场，在高于J.P. Morgan的情况下，没有公司举行，漫长亚博赞助欧冠’s All-America Fixed-Income Research Team for a seventh consecutive year. Its analysts claim places in 50 of the 58 sectors that produced publishable results. That’s an increase of one over last year’s total.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch holds steady in second place for a fifth year even though its team total falls by five, to 40. Wells Fargo Securities repeats at No. 3 despite its total jumping from 28 to 33. Rounding out the top five, with 25 spots apiece, are Barclays — its rank and total are unchanged from last year — and Goldman Sachs, which rises one rung after picking up five positions.

Eleven firms appear this year, which marks the 25th anniversary of the survey. Click on the Leaders link in the navigation table at right to view the full list.

To see the top-ranked analysts and teams in each sector, click on the Best Analysts of the Year.

Hatzius领导着高盛团队在经济学中胜利的第五年竞赛的胜利，在谈到美国经济扩张时，比美联储更乐观。“我们对2016年的年平均GDP增长的预测为1.9％，”他报告。“我们在公投后立即剃了0.25个百分点，从第三季度的年度增长率从两个季度的2.25％到2％，但在四舍五入后没有改变年平均数。”

但他确实相信国债会恢复。“由于市场在货币政策逐步规范化的情况下，逐年逐渐增加十年产量约为2％，通胀边缘更高，经济继续发展到趋势，”经济学家争夺。

In the meantime, money managers will have a tough time finding yield — but there are options, according to J.P. Morgan’s Matthew Jozoff, who co-leads top-ranked teams in Fixed-Income Strategy (with Alex Roever) and Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Strategy/Agency (with Brian Ye).

“低当量环境挑战佛r all investors, whether they’re hedge funds trying to generate attractive absolute returns or insurance companies trying to outperform their own liabilities,” the New York–based analyst observes. “With little yield available globally, spread product has been a magnet for many types of investors, with credit showing some of the best returns year to date despite the volatility from Brexit and other events. In fact, with yields at such low levels, some investors have even discussed looking at spread products as a yield multiple of Treasuries, rather than as a spread over Treasuries.”

Mortgage-backed securities in particular, Jozoff adds, have proved especially popular. “Foreign investors have been surprisingly strong, most likely reacting to the relatively high yields in the U.S. compared to other parts of the world, and spread products have been a beneficiary of this demand,” he explains. “Banks have also been solid net buyers in the first half of the year, particularly in MBS. Despite staying on the sidelines earlier in the year owing to low absolute yields, banks have turned to MBS for incremental spread as well as for liquidity.”

Including taxable instruments in a portfolio is certainly understandable, but there are also plenty of moneymaking opportunities with municipal bonds, according to Jozoff’s colleague Peter DeGroot, who captains the crew at No. 1 in Municipals Strategy for a fifth straight year.

“英国公民投票的令人惊讶的结果投票推动了全球范围内的相对安全的避风港资产价格，而自治市也不例外，”他指出。“我们预计这一趋势将继续，在全球政府收益率仍然较低，中央银行政策支持的程度上，随着市政府应从持续流入，压缩信用率在曲线的较长部分中受益。”

A consistent flow of institutional investment capital is essential for extending the market’s steady compression of risk premiums going forward. “Credit spreads in the longer dated, A-rated portion of the municipal market have tightened by 10 to 15 basis points, on average, over the past year,” the New York–based strategist says. “In comparison to average spreads over the past ten years, current long A-rated benchmark spreads are about 10 basis points tighter or about 0.5 sigma, reflecting only marginally rich valuations.”

更长的Triple-B基准差价已经缩写了更多，RoToot肯定，在过去一年中缩小了大约30个基点，平均为70个基点 - 大约45个基点低于其十年平均值。“在平衡上，由于低产环境将投资者带入低价和更长日期的证券，进一步收紧持续流入，进入较低额定和更长日期的证券以寻求增量回报，”他预测。

Soltoot和他的队友敦促客户在年底至少在年底前留在长期和以屈服度为导向的产品中。“While we all know that markets don’t move in one direction ad infinitum, the fundamental and technical backdrop that resulted in record low ten-year and 30-year investment-grade municipal yields is projected to persist through at least this summer’s heavy reinvestment period and potentially through all of 2016,” he says. “Going forward, the long end will likely benefit from already-high cash levels as well as increasing fund inflows and demand for higher-yielding assets.”

Moreover, supply should be plentiful. Although long-term gross issuance in the first half was about 3 percent less than for the same period last year, at $219 billion, “we expect that supply in the second half will pick up dramatically as the pool of refunding candidates increases, and our forecast for longer-dated tax-exempt yields is well below yields in the second half of last year,” DeGroot points out. “Based on expected increases in both refunding and new money issuance over the second half, our modal projection for full-year 2016 issuance is $435 billion, or 9 percent above 2015 full-year issuance of $398 billion.”

The impact of Brexit is also being felt in forex markets, although Morgan Stanley’s Redeker believes that forecasts of dollar-pound parity by year end are overstated. “We are GBP bears and see GBP-USD testing 1.25,” he says. “We calculate the fair value of GBP-USD at 1.35 and suggest 1.25 offers a sufficient valuation advantage to trigger investment inflows.”

The pair’s rate stood at 1.32 in mid-July.

在近期，Redeker和他的伙伴 - 摩根士丹利上升了一个梯级，首先以货币/外汇推荐“推荐”购买高收益的新兴市场FX，因为美联储住宿贸易指标建议更好EM增长数量，“他说。

他们还对日本保持密切关注。“我们喜欢本月晚些时候购买日元，当时日本的新货币财政组合将是什么，”团队领导解释道。“我们认为日本银行将依靠旧工具，这不足以提高日本通货膨胀的预期。在没有它们的情况下，需要更高的通胀预期来削弱真正的产量 - 日元将走高。“

In mid-July the Japanese currency was trading at 1.05 to the dollar; by year end it will strengthen to 95, the analysts believe.

同样，尽管地平线有些麻烦，但它们仍然是美元的长期公牛。“预计今年夏天的美元向下矫正应其后应遵循新的历史高峰，”Redeker坚持。

2016年全美固定收入研究团队基于大约1,900名投资组合经理和购买侧分析师的反馈，在大约535个机构中监督美国固定收入资产的估计为9.7万亿美元。

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