The Emerging Markets Investors Can’t Ignore

虽然不可预测性往往是欧洲，中东和非洲新兴市场的标志，但它不适用于该地区的领先卖方分析师。

For a sixth year in a row, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has topped Institutional Investor’s Emerging Europe, Middle East, and Africa Research Team. Citi remained in second place, breaking last year’s tie with J.P. Morgan, which rounded out the top three.

该地区最高研究提供商的第七届年度排名基于来自770多个投资组合管理人员和买边分析师的答复，该分析师在新兴EMEA股票中管理约3800亿美元，新兴EMEA债务39.5亿美元。调查涵盖了三类三类投资行业 - 国家和地区，行业覆盖以及经济和战略 - 被调查所涵盖。除了首先放置第一整体之外，BOFA Merrill Lynch还占上了这三类。

“You have a responsibility to try and provide continuity,” said Simon Greenwell, head of EMEA research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, when asked about his firm’s success in a region comprising such disparate markets. “We’ve consistently maintained a local presence and coverage in these markets. Having that local understanding, which you align with global expertise, is clearly what you’re trying to capture.”

据Greenwell称，Bofa Merrill Lynch涵盖了伦敦的大约一半的新兴股票，在当地。“我认为混合很重要，”格林威尔说。与覆盖四个不同地理位置的团队，“沟通和协作是关键”。

根据VTB Capital的全球研究领导，该地区在过去一年中，该地区变得不那么均匀，今年通过今年将其站在团队排名中的一个地方进入第五名。“全国和地方的细节以及全球宏观和政治环境的投资案例比过去的习惯更重要，”他说。“鉴于全球逆风，投资者视野缩短，以倾向于股息比较增长故事。”

不过,政治也可以是positive catalyst, according to Heath Jansen, head of research for Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at Citi. He cited an optimism surrounding South Africa, where a change in leadership earlier this year has “raised expectations for a series of reforms, although these will take time.”

除了政治变革之外，今年在J.P. Morgan国际股权研究领导者表示，由于货币和美国利率较高，美国利率较弱的担忧。

“Current account deficits, where they exist, have become a central concern for clients in [emerging markets], and this has been reflected in currency weakness,” he said. “Combined with the prospect of further interest rate increases in the U.S., investors have turned more cautious in recent months.”

Volatility also remains a key challenge for the sell-side in emerging markets, according to Greenwell. “You can have a market such as Russia where you can go 12 or 18 months where there's no interest and then suddenly something changes,” he said. “It is peaks and troughs.”

Citi的Jansen同意，由于对制裁和政治风险的担忧，俄罗斯是一个落后的落后，但强调2017年全球市场仍然是全球市场的“强年”。

“Although the EEMEA region lagged other emerging regions, a number of our markets were strong performers, including South Africa, Turkey, Greece, and especially Poland, which rose over 50 percent,” he said. “The year saw a revival of both trading volumes and capital market activities in the region, both of which bode well for the deepening of equity markets.”

In these emerging markets, the opportunities can be as large as the challenges, according to J.P. Morgan’s Garg. “We believe that emerging markets continue to reward investors with an attractive growth opportunity,” he said. “While we recognize the associated volatility, the superior earnings growth is a balancing factor.”

在某些前沿市场，詹森报道了更广泛的乐观和不断增长的客户兴趣。“经过一个有挑战性的时期，撒哈拉北部和南部的前沿和南部都有很大的年份，我们相信这应该继续，”他说。

Saudi Arabia — spurred by its all-but-certain upgrade to MSCI emerging market status this June — represents the biggest opportunity in EEMEA, he added.

“This is a deep and liquid market which is in the midst of a reform drive,” Jansen said. “Many investors are yet to be involved but are likely to do so as the market joins the international equity indices.”

It is a market people are going to find very difficult to ignore over the next two years if they aren’t positioned yet, added Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Greenwell.

While local and geopolitics are out of their control, firms are focusing on their strengths. “We see in-depth industry and company knowledge as core to the strength of our analysts,” said J.P. Morgan’s Garg.

A new analyst-based ranking, produced by II for the first time this year, provides some insight into which firms have the strongest individual analysts. While BofA Merrill Lynch and Citi remained in first and second place, respectively, ranking the firms this way propelled VTB Capital to third place.

As VTB’s Dmitriev explained, the qualities that make up a top analyst are “a combination of hard work, ability to focus on truly important issues, high level of flexibility and professional curiosity, and a bit of art and personal charisma.”