尽管在2020年的大流行中具有最快的经济复苏，但中国拥有一个比投资者预期的Rockier 2021。
“Investor sentiment in China has become more pessimistic over the course of 2021,” said Eric Lin, head of research at UBS.
According to Lin, an influx of regulation impacted industries such as property, internet, and after-school tuition. Meanwhile, earnings growth decelerated materially in the third quarter, as the country’s Covid-zero policy — which relies on stringent measures to halt virus transmissions — has continued to affect consumption.
“Towards the end of the year, investors also had to grapple with the external shock of China ADRs potentially needing to de-list from the U.S., and many wanted to understand the potential sell-off pressures and the impact on liquidity and valuation,” Lin added.
The result: The MSCI China index underperformed the S&P 500 by close to 50 percent in 2021.
While unprecedented stimulus enacted in the wake of the pandemic enabled a swift global recovery, the measures pushed global inflation to levels unseen in decades, observed Peng Wensheng, head of the research department at China International Capital Corp. He said Chinese investors are focused on the impact of countries winding down these accommodative policies, as well as on global supply chains, which have yet to recover since the start of the pandemic.
文章表示，如果在2021年展望2021年，中国市场的结构机会相对较为丰富，但在2020年代后期的总体股票表现不那么令人兴奋，“Wensheng说。
China led the global recovery in 2020 and was the first major economy to gradually roll back policy support in 2021, Wensheng added. “The solid economic momentum China enjoyed at the beginning of last year provided it with an opportunity to push through many structural reforms, which also blunted the market's advances in the short term,” he said. China A-share and H-share performance fell behind global markets in 2021 as well.
But there are bright spots, according to Wensheng, who noted that some sectors and investment themes are significantly outperforming, such as the electric vehicle supply chain and renewable energy and technology hardware companies.
文盛表示，尽管大流行的影响，但中国的金融市场保持稳定的步骤开放，“中国卖方研究的竞争仅在正在进行的全球参与者中加剧。与此同时，大流行已经加快了该行业的数字转型，加快了数字工具的整合到日常工作中。“
据瑞银的林说，大流行继续限制国际 - 以及在某种程度上，在某种程度上旅行，所以提供了在地下和当地洞察力的能力变得更加至关重要。“那些能够提供信息优势的销售方的研究分析师可能会吸引更大的受众，”他说。
This year, investors have two favorite Chinese research providers, once again recognizing CICC while also elevating UBS to the No. 1 spot in亚博赞助欧冠第十二年度全中国研究团队. The two firms share the top spot based on the votes of more than 2,800 investment professionals representing 950 institutions with significant Chinese securities holdings.
与去年第一次绑定的华泰证券已落入排名第三，结合了国内外投资者的投票。BOFA Securities重复了第四位完成，摩根士丹利，去年浮萍，破解了前五名。
在今年的调查中，投资者被邀请到30个行业的销售公司。这些答复由每个选民的中国股权资产负责管理，以生产整体排行榜。还基于最佳个人研究人员的投票计算了基于分析的排行榜。在这一排名中，CICC恢复了第1位现货，其次是瑞银在第二年和去年的胜利证券中的第三名。
其他排行榜认识到国内外投资者的不同观点。大陆排名反映了整体结果，CICC和UBS绑定了第一名，然后是华泰证券三分之一。BOFA Securites在这个排名中排名第四，而Boci Research则排出前五名。
与此同时，国际投资者再次将瑞银作为顶级公司。CICC是国内最高的家务所，跳跃一个地方分享第二名与BOFA证券。摩根士丹利和花旗分别花了第四和第五。
文盛担任CICC对大陆和国际投资者提供了最大程度的研究的成功。“作为研究平台，CICC珍视其中国根源和国际覆盖范围。我们在英语和中文中发布了我们的国内和国际客户的研究，“他说。“我们的海外客户比例比我们的国内竞争对手更高。与我们的全球竞争对手相比，我们越来越靠近中国市场，为中国宏观经济，行业和公司提供更多的基础研究。“
然而,会议国际的需要nd domestic clients has become more challenging as their demands begin to bifurcate, according to Lin. “A year ago, both international and domestic focused on the pandemic,” he said. “However, since then, we have observed some divergences. International clients continued to look at China from top to down, focusing on macro recovery post-pandemic and the impact of regulatory drives. In contrast, domestic clients are adopting a bottom-up approach on some industries such as renewables and technology where there are unique investment opportunities.”
Differentiating the research offering at UBS remains key, according to Lin, and is bolstered by the fact that the firm is the first foreign full-licensed JV securities firm in China. UBS is also continuing to expand its China stocks coverage and thematic research ability through the launch of UBS China 360 Research, covering themes such as the future wireless earphone, green hydrogen, ESG, and China REITs.
Looking forward, CICC sees the country’s “green transition” as both a challenge and a significant opportunity. Last year, the firm published “The Economics of Carbon Neutrality,” a research compendium that offers a comprehensive overview and deep analysis of the macroeconomic and industrial impacts of China’s dual carbon objectives. that was popular domestically. An English version is now underway.
“虽然中国的经济仍面临着一些不确定性，但它仍然是一条稳定增长的道路，”文盛说。“中国仍然是全球最具活力和令人兴奋的市场之一，提供了一些最佳增长机会。”
For sell-side research providers, success depends on taking into account these market realities “while constantly innovating and adjusting,” he concluded.