2006年底,托马斯(Britt)哈里斯发现了一个舒适的新栖息地,从中重量在世界经济上。在将塞克萨斯州南部康涅狄格州南部康涅狄格州南部康涅狄格州南部南部的鲨鱼侵染的对冲基金水域的简要倾吐之后,哈里斯被称为“Britt”,作为奥斯汀的德克萨斯州德克萨斯州的1170亿支付人员退休系统的首席投资官。虽然他现在代表了130万教师,其中在他们自己的母亲中,CIO可能是在养老金世界中最着名的,作为形成“战略伙伴关系”的先驱,与承担大型,广泛任务的资产管理人员监督多元化的投资组合在20世纪90年代中期,在GTE公司的养老基金(现在verizon通信)。今天,担任美国公共养老金制度的首脑,哈里斯在任何地方都命令一个猛烈的观众。
Harris, 55, took the CIO job with promises to shake up the portfolio. He brought strategic partnerships to Texas, instating a program that gives managers like KKR & Co. and Apollo Global Asset Management wide scope — and several billion dollars each — to invest as they choose. He has also built up a one-third allocation to alternative investments that includes a full 20 percent in private equity and real assets such as energy. “Investors should have learned that traditional diversification does not work and never has,” says Harris. “Being diversified ‘on average’ should not be the goal — being diversified at the right time should be.”
2012年2月,德克萨斯州教师的基金在康迪特伙伴,康涅狄格州的替代资产经理中买了2.5亿美元的私募股权,以1500亿美元的管理层(包括840亿美元的对冲基金),哈里斯于2006年担任首席执行官。这一角色是重点营销的重点,原来是对深深的宗教哈里斯在日常工作中的意义和精神履行的需要,导致他的Swift出发。
在Bridgewater出口追求六个月后,牧师的儿子哈里斯哈里斯返回了他的家庭状态,为他的校友,德克萨斯A&M大学的圣经研究和教学中的更加普通氛围。1980年毕业后,哈里斯在德克萨斯州的资产管理工作,前向东担任首席投资官,康涅狄格州斯坦福德的verizon投资管理公司总裁。
5月中旬,哈里斯飞往纽约市接受亚博赞助欧冠’s Large Pension Fund Manager of the Year award, taking time to talk with Senior Writer Frances Denmark for a wide-ranging conversation on the future of the Texas Teacher's fund, risk management, the global economy and the start of the American Empire.
德克萨斯州教师的养老基金是否能够长期维持养老金支出?
对我们最相关的东西是长期的。我们的时间地平线是24年,我们对大多数投资者有很多优势。我们不仅是真正长期的投资者,而且我们非常大,非常液体,而不是高度杠杆。我们也是世界各地广大广大投资者的多样化。这使我们成为市场上的众所周知的强手,这通常意味着我们和像我们这样的人,有更好的机会表现得比大多数大多数更好。
Will you have to take on greater risk to meet your future payout goals?
这取决于两件事:你在说什么risk from an academic sense or a long-term investor’s perspective? In an academic sense, traditional investors will have to hold more equity than debt than they have had to over the past 30 years. That won’t decrease the short-term volatility of stocks or change the expected correlations versus other asset classes. So in the academic and short-term sense the answer is yes. However, while more equity probably means more short-term volatility for most investors and more potential danger from systemic risk, long-term investors will also consider a number of factors. Unlevered debt is virtually useless now as a long-term wealth accumulator and cannot now play a meaningful role for most traditional long-term investors. We are now in a world where you want to be a borrower not a lender.
假设包含全身风险,股权在接下来的十到20年中遵循债券的概率可能异常高。短期脱位实际上有助于丰富多样化,资本充分利用的长期投资者。
当人们认为它是最低的时,往往是最高的,然后当他们觉得它是最高的。我们应该是遭受不如大部分颠倒思维的投资者的类型,我们应该是实际利润它的投资者。
过去十年,您对风险管理的看法如何发生变化?
首先,大多数人呼叫风险管理是真正的风险监测,可能没有变化很大。但是,对于那些实践风险管理的人来说,存在一些重要的变化。当然没有人依赖于他们以前所做的范围内的任何地方的var [值风险测量工具]。当风险低时,我们发现var大规模低估风险,大量夸大风险。
We have done several things to try to improve our risk management functions going forward. We now have an extensive system for monitoring both bubbles and antibubbles. We have developed what we refer to as “economic maps” for most of the world’s key regions designed to inform us more precisely about whether we are in a global equity environment, disinflation or reflationary regime. We have focused less on small risk factors and more on what we refer to as “bullet to the brain” risks, meaning risk factors that you cannot survive. Those include excessive leverage, excessive concentration and inadequate liquidity.
Where are you finding the best opportunities for growth?
We are living in the early years of the American Empire that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall. That means we are only about 25 years into the new empire. Every historical empire has lasted for centuries, not decades. We have the soundest economy, the most innovation, the best rule of law, a relatively deep spiritual core, a competitive banking system and the largest and best military force in the history of mankind — which we use to reduce the probability of large-scale global conflict and increase international trade. So opportunities in the U.S. should continue.
在美国外面。它变化很多。欧洲希望长期成为奇怪的人。他们的人口状况是可怕的,因为他们可能会在未来几十年中看到他们的人口超过1亿人下降。他们真的没有谈论的政治制度。在许多国家,政府支出的一半是GDP的一半。此外,他们的银行系统仍然是一团糟;欧洲必须弄清楚如何使其生产力大幅上升,或者在过去的几十年里,它不能仍然存在于过去的几十年。
新兴国家,如中国,巴西和印度如何?
新兴国家处于拐点。虽然他们可能会继续以更快的速率增长,但发达国家的增长传播可能会下降。经过十年的大规模增长,大多数国家正在达到持续改善的自然阈值。过去的成就是令人印象深刻和重要的。例如,数百万人已经提高了贫困线之上,如果世界分为两个国家,一个发达的县和一个新兴国家,这两个人的相对国内生产总值就会相似,但会有大规模的差异人们(80%将在发展中国家)和财富(80%将在发达的县)。
尽管如此,许多人仍然可能会出现速度,正如该国达到各种门槛所需的那种经济大门所需的变化所需的那样。金砖金牌和商品出口商可能有一些麻烦,而新兴世界的国家可能会继续前进。通配符是非洲和日本。如果他们可以让自己进入一个有用的世俗的积极位置。
您已成为一个大型对冲基金投资者。他们下次在哪里?
他们中有太多,将来会有较少。如果您认为对冲基金是更高的alpha发动机,那么您仍然必须面对alpha是零金额的事实,因为更多的人进入该领域,馅饼不会变大。对冲基金具有不同的回报流,可能最好用作债券的替代品。
对冲基金费用怎么样?
Because the return stream is engineered, it is harder to produce and therefore takes more effort, which might be worth a higher fee in some cases. Most people pay a higher fee for two reasons: because that is the way it has always been and because people will overpay for downside protection if they are led to believe that that will make money too and that they are a part of some “special group.” Thus far, the vast percentage of the money has gone to the top-100 funds and those 100, while some have struggled, seem to have outperformed the median of the smaller funds, which obviously have both a wider range of returns and a higher death rate.
Is a 5 percent real (after inflation) return a realistic goal for public pensions?
答案取决于几个因素:现在的价格是如何定价的以及你的时间框架是什么。在非常短的术语中,比如说,一到三年,任何事情都是可能的。如果您认为债券赚取3%,那么股票必须赚取8.5%,以便投资组合以7%进入。大约2.5%的股息支持,因此名义资本升值将需要平均为6%。当你看一下滚动10年回报的历史,然后五年前开始,在前五年的前一个期间看成果,你刚刚拥有的,你发现未来两年[从历史上讲,实际上已经平均了12.2%,我们需要在那个时间达到5%的两倍。
所以要说我们不会达到5%的真实可能仍然是正确的,但如果我们说我们正在赌注,那么仍然会这样说。
长期前景怎么样?
在中期期间,它可能不太可能。这是因为在那个时间期间,我们将在股票市场中至少有30%至35%的回调的赔率很高。我们刚刚完成了16个季度的金融危机中的复苏 - 超过历史平均水平的四倍 - 然而,在股市的扩张阶段,事情开始繁荣,因为泡沫开始消退。所有的正常迹象都在那里 - 您看到了IPO [首次公开产品]市场升温,并购[合并和收购]活动开始加速,个人投资者跳上火车和保证金债务上升。市场先生可能是一个令人沮丧的,但他也是患者。他总是等待搬家,直到他在火车上大肆宣布我们所有人。这意味着简单的术语是我们更接近本业务和市场周期的结束,然后我们将开始。
Nobody who has studied how the markets work should say that they would be surprised to see a normal bear market begin within the next 12 to 36 months. That timing would be fairly normal and it would undermine our efforts to achieve 5 percent real.