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中国Exploits Crisis, Positions Renminbi as Potential Rival to Dollar
人民币正通过发行债券和扩大投资选择在全球市场取得进展。
Melbourne-based entrepreneur Darren Dai has discovered a great way to increase the sale of Australian pine and softwoods to his Chinese furniture manufacturing clients: taking renminbi as payment.
Last year the head of Koalstralia Resources began accepting the Chinese currency, also known as the yuan, from customers instead of U.S. dollars. The change helps the company’s Chinese clients reduce transaction costs, including hedging and the typical 1.5 percent foreign exchange fees. “In turn,” explains Dai, “Koalstralia can benefit from more orders from the Chinese market.” The company has taken 8.2 million yuan ($1.3 million) in payment since last year, about 10 percent of its receivables.
Koalstralia资源远非独自一人。在6月份的12个月内，人民币在国际贸易中使用了150％，报道了斯威夫特，这是一个以世界金融机构为基础的布鲁塞尔的合作社。根据HSBC控股数据，中国近16％的商品和服务贸易的商品和服务贸易的387万美元的商品和服务贸易的贸易额仅占2011年的8％，而且在2010年几乎零零。(See also “中国的货币创造性地扩展以吸引投资“）
The currency’s growing role in trade has fostered a vibrant offshore market in renminbi-denominated deposits and corporate bonds — known as dim sum — as well as foreign exchange trading. Although a recent backup in rates has stalled issuance in the past three months, the market for renminbi corporate bonds has grown to $38.4 billion outstanding. London and Singapore have targeted renminbi business as a growth area, and both cities have joined Hong Kong as centers of bond issuance in the past year. “The increasing use of RMB is in line with China’s stature as a prominent economy and trading power,” says Jing Ulrich, J.P. Morgan’s Hong Kong–based chairman of global markets for China.
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人民币也有望在投资市场中发挥更加突出的作用。6月，北京宣布对投资中国股票的外国基金管理人员的配额近倍增，达到1500亿美元，从800亿美元。由于中国的一股市场表现不佳 - 上个月达到2009年最高的峰值，但许多投资者表示，他们预计在未来几个月内，许多投资者认为许多投资者都表示近40％。(See also “Beijing Spreads Its Wings“）
In late 2010, as China was surpassing Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy, Beijing embarked upon an ambitious program to make the renminbi an international currency, which central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said would ultimately lead to reserve currency status. The plan is still in its early stages and will require major reforms to succeed, but recent developments suggest that it is gaining real traction in the markets. Some analysts and investors say the day is fast approaching when the renminbi will stand alongside the dollar, euro and yen as a major global currency.
“中国的资本市场可能超越2020年，”富兰克林·斯坦普顿投资新兴 - 市场集团执行主席Mark Mobius Mark Mobius说。“当人民币变得完全可兑换时，它可以竞争美国美元。美元突出的原因是因为它是最自由的货币。“
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但是，在地平线上有威胁云。中国’s economy is slowing, and analysts are warning of mounting bad-debt problems in the banking system, a legacy of the massive 4 trillion-yuan stimulus program that Beijing pumped through the banks into the economy in 2009. If a financial crisis erupts, it could require a bailout as large as that stimulus program, slow the pace of economic reform and delay or derail plans for promoting the currency’s global use. “As more-vital issues come to the fore, there is a danger that RMB internationalization may take a backseat in the coming year or two,” says Paul Schulte, editor of “The Bull’s Eye Report” and former Asia strategist at Nomura International.
然而，到目前为止，当局没有任何犹豫的迹象。
胡依凡是促进其促进其货币的三部分策略，是海通国际证券集团，中国领先投资银行的香港股份子公司研究领导。第一阶段，鼓励贸易和解，得到很好的先进。在过去的五年中，中国人民银行在亚洲，拉丁美洲和欧洲的22个国家签署了交换协议，总价值2万元，以促进货币在贸易支付中使用。
In the second phase the government will adopt an array of financial market reforms, including the establishment of special zones where capital can flow in and out freely, followed by full liberalization of the capital account, then unconditional renminbi convertibility. “China is moving from phase one to phase two, and this process may take three to seven years,” says Hu.
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胡锦涛说，第三阶段，人民币获得储备货币的地位，可能会花几十年来实现。“金融产品供应不足，金融市场缺乏深度以及对资本流通的限制代表了世界储备货币状况的人民币加入人民币的障碍，”她说。
然而，值得注意的是，日本，俄罗斯，韩国和其他地方的中央银行已经开始积累人民币。澳大利亚储备银行已投资于中国政府债券的5％备份。“在储备货币阵线上，这已经发生了，”汇丰银行业务首席执行官Anita Fung说。
胡锦涛说，货币的国际化是一个长期目标，但在市场上进行了其他重要的变化。The renminbi has become the reference currency for much of Southeast Asia: Those countries’ currencies move more closely in line with China’s than with the dollar or the euro, according to a new paper by Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler of the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. The Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, Philippines peso, Singapore dollar, South Korean won, Taiwan dollar and Thai baht all track the renminbi more closely than they do the dollar. “There is now a de facto RMB currency bloc in East Asia,” the economists write.
驻北京的美国律师、《华尔街日报》作者劳伦斯•勃拉姆（Laurence Brahm）表示，人民币离岸使用的增加增强了中国的地缘政治实力中国的世纪：下一个经济促销的觉醒。“我们必须看看人民币的全球化，而不仅仅是金融工程，而且作为政治和经济的整体全球战略的一部分，”布拉姆表示，“德拉姆”，他向中国的执行国务委员会环境政策和市场改革建议。“一个明显的优势是，当人民币作为货币广泛接受时，中国投资者在海外上将变得更加容易。”根据华盛顿州的遗产基金会，中国公司自2006年以来在离岸收购中投入了超过380亿美元。“这可能在未来十年中获得1万亿美元，”勃拉姆抗争。
没有规则规定一个国家的经济权重必须转化为其货币的国际作用。几十年来，日本一直抵制日元的广泛使用，担心这会削弱日本对国内经济的控制。人民币在国际上的作用越来越大，这可能会削弱中国政府的控制，因为中国政府需要提供足够的货币，使其能够扩散，并接受自由资本流动的大部分波动。
“随着金融市场的强劲发展和国际化，三大货币区都面临着一场重大的金融危机，”海通的胡士泰说。“中国可能必须加强对市场的监管，以避免出现这样的陷阱。”
货币作为一个结算单位取得了最大进展。根据SWIFT，人民币贸易结算的增长率在截至6月30日止年度增加了每年的75％的150％，达到每年的75％。现在，货币在全球范围内，瑞典克朗落后于2012年1月20日。但由于规模经济，贸易解决是高度集中的。人民币仅在6月份的跨境支付中的0.87％，前面四分之一：欧元（37％），美元（36％），英镑（8.6％）和日元（2.6％）。
“Eleventh place is still far from the top,” notes Barry Eichengreen, an economist and monetary specialist at the University of California, Berkeley. “One can say that the renminbi is coming into being taken more seriously as a global currency. But it is still very far from being taken as seriously as the dollar.”
中国仍然是世界上最大的贸易国家，其公司有兴趣在国外使用元而不是美元或欧元。当局令人鼓舞的趋势。5月，北京使人民币兑换目前的账户，允许中国公司从离岸客户接受袁的商品和服务，没有任何文件或监管批准。
Half of all international companies in Hong Kong and almost a third in mainland China have begun using the renminbi to conduct cross-border business, according to a recent survey of 700 HSBC clients commissioned by the bank. Some 53 percent of Chinese businesses surveyed said they would offer discounts of as much as 5 percent for transactions settled in renminbi.
汇丰（HSBC）亚太地区全球贸易和应收账款融资主管西蒙•康斯坦丁尼德斯（simonconstantinides）表示：“企业正在不断寻找降低成本、寻找竞争优势的方法。”。“一个买家在中国的总支出中节省5%可能是相当可观的。”
Standard Chartered publishes the Renminbi Globalization Index, based on the currency’s use in trade, foreign exchange turnover, offshore deposits and offshore corporate bonds, among other things. The index has soared ninefold since the bank launched it in December 2010.
与人民币的不断增长的贸易角色相比,Beijing tightly controls the capital account, fearing that unregulated flows of investment funds could destabilize markets. The recent volatility in emerging markets underscored these concerns.
不过，当局正在采取措施，放宽资本流动。今年6月，中国证监会大幅扩大了外资基金经理投资中国股票的额度。官员们也在试验利率自由化。7月份，政府允许银行根据市场需求设定贷款利率；此前，央行实际上控制了大部分贷款利率。分析人士预计，当局将在不久的将来扩大类似的存款利率自由。官员们认为，放开利率为金融市场注入了更大的竞争，增强了它们应对国际化带来的外部冲击的能力。
这些改革的结果可以清楚地看出在Hong Kong, the former British colony that returned to Chinese control in 1997 and serves as China’s offshore financial center.
自2010获得人民币贸易结算许可以来，香港银行的业务流程令人印象深刻。汇丰银行（HSBC）的数据显示，2012年的结算量增长了37%，达到2.6万亿元，今年上半年增长了40%，达到1.7万亿元。作为这项业务的副产品，香港居民和企业积累了世界上最大的离岸人民币库：8610亿元，其中储蓄账户6980亿元，存款证明1630亿元。
为了使这些持有人与那款货币有关，2011年北京开始允许中国资产管理人员在香港的运营，以提高人民币基金在内地股市投资。人民币合格的外国机构投资者计划，因为它被称为3月份扩亚博赞助欧冠大，包括中国银行和保险公司的子公司以及全球金融机构。截至7月，北京批准了该计划下的1220亿元的投资配额。
香港开始发展一系列其他人民币计价的金融产品，包括货币远期、保险产品和各种上市和未上市的投资基金。行动的主要份额是点心债券，香港证券交易所总共有70种证券价值约3000亿元。金融公司还提供8只以人民币计价的交易所交易基金，总市值超过290亿元人民币。
Citigroup last year helped China Asset Management Co., the country’s largest fund manager, design the China AMC CSI 300 Index ETF. The fund, which launched in July 2012, was down 7.4 percent this year as of late August, compared with a 6.8 percent decline for the CSI 300 index. “We see China and more broadly the RMB as a huge potential for us,” says Kevin Wong, Citi’s Hong Kong–based head of fund services.
Daily renminbi turnover in the Hong Kong foreign exchange market now exceeds $10 billion, and banks quote cross rates against the euro, the pound and other major Asian currencies, as well as the dollar.
Daily volume on Hong Kong’s renminbi real-time gross settlement system, which supports the whole range of activities in the currency, hit 448 billion yuan at the end of June, up from just 5 billion yuan in late 2010. “While it is foreseeable that an increasing portion of mainland China’s trade and investments with the rest of the world will be conducted in RMB, the pace of the RMB’s internationalization would very much be a market-driven process going forward,” says Hong Kong Financial Secretary John Tsang.
Outside of Hong Kong and mainland China, only a minority of businesses settle their China trade in renminbi, according to the HSBC survey, but the bank expects the share to grow quickly. The current figures range from 11 percent of businesses in Singapore and the U.K. to 9 percent in Germany and the U.S. and 7 percent in Australia. “By 2015 we see up to 30 percent of China’s trade will be settled in RMB” and half of its Asia trade, says HSBC’s Fung. “ This will make the RMB the third global currency after the U.S. dollar and the euro.”
Although it has a strong lead, Hong Kong faces growing competition for renminbi business. In March authorities in Singapore and China doubled their swap agreement, to 300 billion yuan. In May the Monetary Authority of Singapore launched a renminbi clearing facility with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s local branch. Singaporean companies have built up 100 billion yuan in savings, according to the MAS.
Within the first month of establishing renminbi clearing, Singaporean banks issued 2.5 billion yuan worth of bonds, dubbed Lion City bonds. Last month Jiangsu-based Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings), China’s second-largest builder of ships and oil rigs, became the first company to have its shares trade in both Singapore dollars and yuan on the local stock exchange.
伦敦也在争取人民币业务的份额。今年6月，中国人民银行行长周小川与时任英国央行行长默文•金（mervynking）签署了2000亿元人民币的互换协议。伦敦金融城（City of London）政策与资源委员会（Policy and Resources Committee）主席马克•博利特（Mark Boleat）表示，去年伦敦的人民币贸易结算额翻了一番，达到340多亿元。他说：“虽然规模很小，但起点就在那里。”。“我们希望它能进一步发展。”
中国正在为跨境人民币业务开发家庭中心。去年，国务院表示，它将在深圳市南部城市仓库包装半岛创建一座陆上枢纽，以与香港的银行开展业务。
在中国大陆主要的金融中心上海，官方宣布成立一个类似前海的跨境金融区。官员们尚未透露上海综合自由贸易区的许多细节，但银行家和分析师表示，该区可能将重点放在衍生品和大宗商品上。消息来源说，伦敦金属交易所是香港交易所的子公司，它首先是为了获得许可来建立金属输送的仓库。
北京官员明确表示，香港将成为中岸人民币中心。官员正在努力采取相互认可改革，将允许香港的金融机构 - 包括全球公司的许多子公司 - 通过中国金融机构在中国销售其全球共同基金和股票联系产品。换取，中国机构将通过香港公司的全球网络销售人民币产品。
汇丰银行的Fung表示，普遍承认，市场参与者可以在2014年作为2014年致力于实现2020年目标日期实现全面货币兑换的标志。“我们期待早五年中国人民币将走向全面的沃思，”她说。
UC Berkeley的EichenGreen持怀疑态度，北京可以快速移动。“这是一个非常雄心勃勃的目标，让它温和，”他说。“加强监督监管，全面放松的利率，采用全面灵活的汇率并在七年内开设资本账户？”
金融市场自由化和人民币国际化的步伐最终依靠全国的经济健康，浙江大学财务教授，杭州金融教授。阴影银行系统中债务不良债务增长，包括国有企业的贷款和所谓的财富管理产品蓬勃发展的市场 - 银行销售的投资产品追求监管限制 - 将缓慢改革努力，他解释道。“影子银行会带来非常严峻的挑战，”钱说说。“中国的金融体系不会在短期内崩溃，但可能需要多年的重组来清理混乱。”
即便如此，中国政策的方向明确，香港的曾争夺人民币国际化可以帮助抵消最近经济的放缓。他说：“人民币的使用将极大地促进中国与世界其他地区之间的双边贸易和投资流量，因为它降低了外汇风险和货币转换成本，”他说。•
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