It’s easy to get William Eigen III riled. Just ask him how fixed-income managers are rethinking their approach to investing now that a 30-plus-year bull market in bonds is not only coming to a close but will likely go down in economic history as a freak occurrence. Eigen, a longtime bond manager who is part owner of an auto service shop and restores American muscle cars like Camaros and Challengers, says most of his peers are stubbornly sticking with what’s worked for three decades. He believes that managers instead need to start using a mix of traditional and hedge fund techniques to make sure investors continue to get what they’ve always expected from fixed income: capital preservation, diversification and income.
去年7月在午餐时间人群中发表讲话JPMORGAN CHASE＆CO.’s Manhattan headquarters, Eigen ranted against big bond managers’ spending their days on CNBC, telling people that interest rates would never go up, even as the Federal Reserve was doing everything it could to convince the markets that it would soon be scaling back quantitative easing (QE) — Fed-speak for printing tens of billions of dollars to buy fixed-income securities. Traditional bond managers want to talk about what happens when interest rates rise (bond prices fall) almost as much as the babysitter likes to reveal how much she texts while watching the kids. It’s bad for business.
九个月后，从他的家庭在波士顿以外的家中谈了一周星期五下午，eigen解释了为什么它被解放为逃避绝对返回资金。与必须购买长期证券并全面投入的传统债券经理不同，他可以自由地讲述他认为在市场中的真相 - 而不是 - 价值在市场上。eigen表示，固定收入在较少年的利率下成为懒惰的资产课程是下降，因为管理者坐下来并提供整体市场的回报，而不是alpha，这是熟练的投资的结果。
“固定收益基金业务没有进化because it hasn’t had to,” says Eigen, who oversees $36 billion in absolute-return and opportunistic fixed-income funds forJ.P.摩根资产管理。“如果价格下跌32年，你不会进化;你将坚持过去的工作。“
营运债券基金即将变得更加困难。一代经理培养了在债券中长期前所未有的牛市期间提供了储存的投资技术的经理 - 认为谢尔曼·麦考富，宇宙的债券交易大师在1987年的小说中为汤姆沃尔夫带来了生命，Bonfire of the Vanities— now faces a future in which its skills are outdated and many of the products it used are relics of the past. Managers are racing to reinvent themselves and figure out how to make money in a world of paltry yields that is marked by a lack of supply of diverse fixed-income securities and the threat of rising rates. Unconstrained bond funds, which give their managers wide latitude when it comes to choosing investments, are the first steps that the industry is taking to remain relevant. The funds are a testing ground for managers to develop new strategies to make good on the historical promise of fixed income.
利率上升不是债券经理的唯一风险。在2008年级的金融危机之后，固定收入市场的结构变化创造了自己的一系列挑战。在危机监管机构在银行破解后，对新规则进行了影响，包括更改博弈的资本要求，以降低其杠杆和局限性，他们可以冒着该资本风险的企业。已经更新了他们的专有交易业务的银行现在正在观看市场，这些市场主要来自边线，即使涉及日常工作，即使匹配的买家和卖家等直接证券等最高的公司债券。“这为大型资本筹备了更多的资本，如无限制的资金和对冲基金来介入和发挥该角色，”高盛资产管理的战略收入基金的合作经理Michael Swell说。
不受约束的投资是资产管理行业对邦德世界一代内变动的答案。这些投资者将它们的联系们共同使用像Barclays美国的基准，如Barclays U.S.总指数，全球投资，并在银行贷款和高收益债券等证券之间切换，以找到最佳机会。根据定义，这些资金没有标准模板，但他们经常使用短职位和衍生品来对冲利率和其他风险，甚至投资私人贷款交易。虽然Blackrock，GSAM，J.P.摩根和太平洋投资管理公司监督最大的不受约束的战略，管理大约1000亿美元的合并，几乎每个债券经理都在推出或考虑开业类似的资金。
“You could argue that the buy side has had it easy for 20 to 30 years,” says Richard Prager, who heads BlackRock’s trading and liquidity strategies and has become an outspoken critic of how the bond markets have operated since the financial crisis — and what needs to change. “It’s a good time for certain bond managers to retire. There are different skill sets required” (see "BlackRock Is Remaking the Capital Markets“）。
Prager’s boss, BlackRock CEO Laurence Fink, gave a shout-out to unconstrained investing in the announcement accompanying his firm’s first-quarter earnings release. “The fixed income landscape is undergoing significant change, driving both institutional and retail clients to re-examine their fixed-income strategies,” Fink said. “We continue to witness a shift toward unconstrained fixed income.” BlackRock, whose founders helped develop mortgage-backed securities and other structured products, still represents big money in bonds: More than one third of its $4.4 trillion in assets are in fixed income.
罗莎琳德·惠威尼亚人，莱昂·米和哈里B.赫尔斯利慈善信任，是不受约束方法的粉丝。她于2010年投资J.P. Morgan的eIgen，当时她正在抓住40亿美元的纽约基金会的投资计划。“我坐在这里思考自己，我真的想投资传统的固定收入吗？”赫沃森召回。“因为我所知道的一件事是，它更有可能升起而不是跌倒。”
去年春天和夏季，当前美联储主席Ben Bernanke后，中央银行将开始逐渐减少QE的月度债券购买，投资者在牛市之后的生活中可能就像生活中可能就像这样的味道一样。他们在固定收益中经历了董事会的损失，他们预计将稳定的投资组合的一部分。2013年的亏损比长牛市的其他两次卖出的损失更深，包括1994年的一个。去年是不同的，因为投资者在他们的投资组合中没有收益，以缓解债券价格下降的影响 -one of the ugly lessons of the Fed’s drive to push rates so low.
The 2013 spike in interest rates was a wake-up call. “We’ve had 30 years where fixed income has done everything that clients envisioned it to do — it was a great diversifier, a solid contributor of income and yield, and it even provided a total return,” says Edwin Conway, head of BlackRock’s $1 trillion U.S. and Canadian institutional business. “Last spring was the aha moment, when it became clear just how dangerous the current environment is.”
投资者没有地方躲避到来的变化。如果有什么，retiring baby boomersand the U.S. public and corporate pension plans set up to take care of retirees will need a record amount of safe, principal-preserving fixed income. Like the family that hires the texting babysitter because she’s better than no babysitter, investors need fixed income in their portfolios because there are no alternatives for safety.
来自流行基准的承载管理人员为投资者提供了大量的风险。巴克莱％可能具有大量的利率风险，但可以预测其行为。不受约束的投资是新的，很少有管理人员有长期的曲目记录，可以展示他们在不同市场上进行的方式。根据定义，灵活的管理人员经常重新定位他们的投资组合，有时会在黑暗中将投资者留在下一个报告期。
Dan Roberts, manager of the MainStay Unconstrained Bond Fund and head of global fixed income at $80 billion fixed-income manager MacKay Shields, says investors and consultants are worried about the amount of risk that managers may take on with unconstrained strategies. He points to core-plus funds, which allow managers to invest in high-yield and other debt on top of government and investment-grade corporate bonds. In 2008 the median core-plus fund lost a whopping 10 percentage points more than the index, as most managers had loaded up on higher-yielding but risky assets in the lead-up to the financial crisis.
“他们吸了烟，”罗伯茨说。“客户说，'我会给你所有这些灵活性，但你能把它变成阿尔法吗？或者你会用它埋葬我吗？'“
尽管如此，投资者不能坐在手上。Rick Rieder，Blackrock的基本固定收入的CIO，对那些在传统债券基金的不受约束投资视为风险的人来发出问题。“向巴克莱八十八十八十八十个核心债券基金的风险与利率联系在一起，”Rieder表示，他致辞的Blackrock的战略收入机会基金。“他们是可预测的，但这是一个安全的投资？”
U.S的利率稳步下降。自20世纪80年代初以来，吉米卡特总统吉米卡特委任保罗沃尔克董事长委员会委员会任命为授权通货膨胀。在这些数十年中，最令人兴奋的债券收益，大多数个人和机构投资者都将其固定收入组合致以雷曼美国的汇总债券指数（现在是巴克莱美国A亚博赞助欧冠GG）。因此，两个因素大大确定了债券基金返回：利率和信贷率的水平（借款人与财政部证券为诱使人们购买债务的债务程度）。该方法有效：在牛市的利率期间，债券投资者在1982年至2013年间的三年内完成了金钱。
全球中央银行迎来了牛市结束时，他们过去常常在金融危机后试图开始启动增长的非凡刺激措施。从2009年到2013年底，美联储将其资产负债表上的证券增加到4万亿美元，促使通胀恐惧，并将率推至几乎为零。
Last spring, when tapering talk started, GSAM’s Swell and co-manager Jonathan Beinner jumped in to buy municipal bonds, which individual investors were selling in a panic. The 30-year tax-exempt munis they purchased were trading at 125 percent of the yield of comparable-length Treasuries and at the same levels as taxable munis. At the same time, they hedged out the interest rate exposure of the munis.
对于两个GSAM管理者来说，这一举动是一个禁智的人。“That’s a traditional liquidity-providing type of operation that investors are now doing as opposed to the Street,” says Swell, who ran fixed-income sales and trading at investment bank FBR & Co. before joining GSAM in 2007. As banks are getting out of the trading business, he explains, money managers like GSAM are stepping into the breach, scooping up profits while providing necessary liquidity to the market.
具有讽刺意味的是，膨胀可以从行业数据看，投资者逃离传统的固定收入共同基金 - 强迫他们的经理以巨大的折扣销售证券 - 就像他一样涌入基金。
与银行合成，GSAM认为它可以从相对价值策略中获利，基本上拥有一个安全性并缩短另一个安全性。“你可以在没有纯粹的利率风险和没有信用风险的情况下冒充有吸引力或更具吸引力的回报，而无需纯粹是信贷风险，”48岁的沃尔森·斯普尔（Rumson）在罗姆森，托尼·家庭和布鲁斯·斯普林斯特。他在他的职业生涯早期仍将佣金支持证券浸入了抵押贷款支持的证券，并在加入FBR之前花了十几年的销售和证券化抵押贷款。
膨胀使机构投资者能够迁至亚博赞助欧冠不受约束的资金，即使他们因违背其仍然相同而衡量的基准。例如，如果利率下降，威尔的基金可能会根据它目前定位的方式赔钱，并且巴克莱雅格格的价值将增加。在年底，养老基金的董事会将使用AGG作为其测量棒来判断其表现。CIO冒着GSAM的技能将优于基准测试的风险。“本产品中有经理风险，比核心债券基金有意义，”笔记膨胀。
虽然膨胀说，GSAM的战略收入基金是绝对的回报，并寻求提供现金的一定程度的收益，其表现比晨星非传统债券基金类别的平均基金更有挥发。2013年，膨胀率为6.07％，而该类别中的平均基金基本上是平的（上涨0.29％）。2011年，高盛基金的债券市场挥发年份下跌2.49％。2014年1月是不受约束基金的岩石月份：高盛基金损失了0.56％，而该类别上涨0.09％。
Blackrock的Rieder有很好的时机，即使它并不总是完美。2008年5月，Rieder，然后是全球首席策略和雷曼兄弟持有的20年的老将，让投资银行开始了他自己的对冲基金公司R3资本合作伙伴。对冲基金从陷入困境的银行获得了50亿美元的证券，这正在努力平息投资者对其持有的非魅力证券的数十亿美元的恐惧。9月15日，雷曼，已给雷克曼提供了10亿美元的种子资本，提起破产。一个月后，失败的投资银行同意将2.5亿美元与对冲基金保持三年。
2009年，大笔资金管理公司正在招聘华尔街退伍军人，经验贸易抵押贷款支持和其他苦恼证券，并在消防价格上吞噬投资。Blackrock是R3的原始投资者，在4月份签署了Rieder的交易，将他的R3资金与阵容合并。Rieder成为其固定收入替代品组合团队的负责人。他于2010年晋升为基本固定收入的CIO。
Now 52, Rieder began his career in 1983 as a financial analyst at SunTrust Banks in Atlanta. Four years later, after getting his MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, he joined E.F. Hutton & Co. In 1988, Hutton merged with Shearson Lehman Brothers.
Rieder is passionate about developing new ways to solve the fixed-income market’s problems, which he says became clear to him in 2010. In October of that year, Treasury yields dropped below 2.5 percent, and investors started thinking hard about interest rate risk and wondering whether their luck with bonds might be about to run out. In the great deleveraging that immediately followed the financial crisis, there was little need for companies to borrow money and create new fixed-income securities. All of the net supply that has been coming to market since then has been investment grade and Treasuries, which the Fed has been buying as part of QE. Each of the past two years has seen record issuance of investment-grade U.S. corporate debt. Apple and Verizon Communications are just two examples of companies that have issued large amounts of debt because they barely had to pay anything to get investors to trip over themselves to buy it. “I’ve been doing this for 27 years, and I’ve never seen so little diversity of assets,” Rieder says.
与此同时，这种供应率运行低，人们向股票销售债券也是不明智的，即使Blackrock Ceo Fink告诉他们在2012年做的那样，也是在2012年做的。纪录数量达到退休年龄。在一家世界保险公司中，需要更多资产来袜子回到保险合同，他们销售，个人需要从债务工具的收入上获取，养老金计划需要比以往任何时候都更加债券，以符合以往任何时候都要匹配其负债。
Rieder表示，对于为固定收入投资者创造多元化和收入来说，令人惊讶的是。比如，个人信用卡债务支持的债券 - 投资者需要一种途中远离包装成巴克莱雅的东西的方法，其中80％的风险与利率发生的事情捆绑在一起。2006年和2007年，95％的固定收入证券产生了4％以上。去年只有15％。
“人们正在为收入而死，”Rieder说。“你如何深入了解它？”
Rieder believes the limited supply of diverse fixed-income products and the resulting lack of income to satisfy an aging population are behind the growing popularity of unconstrained investing. BlackRock is putting a huge effort into the strategy because it sees investors hiring big and well-equipped managers that have the creativity and discipline to create new tools. The Strategic Income Opportunities Fund is about finding diversification in new and different places. “We’re looking to diversify like crazy,” says Rieder, who adds that if he had a slogan for the fund, it would be “I’m trying to make a little bit of money a lot of times.”
BlackRock’s Aladdin risk management system, which originally helped investors understand the risks of their multilayered mortgage-backed securities and which arguably powered the firm’s growth over the past 20 years, helps Rieder understand the unexpected interconnections among more-complex trades in far-flung locales in the unconstrained fund. BlackRock uses Aladdin to model all the component risks in a portfolio and analyze what specific trades will do to correlations among other securities and how they will affect the total risk of the portfolio. Aggregating data from various sources, the system can help the firm analyze 300 different asset classes and model how they should perform in a risk-on or risk-off environment, for example.
由于缺乏供应，一些固定收入交易，如高收益债务，尤其挤满了投资者。2011年底，Rieder因购买意大利和西班牙债券而被批评者串联串联，但Blackrock在今年1月售出其职位前两年的价格将债券上涨两年;Rieder认为市场在400亿西班牙语交易来到市场上只支付了80个以上的基本点。相反，Blackrock在葡萄牙和斯洛文尼亚旋转成较小的问题，这两者都可以从德国出来的欧洲国家的近期出来的更多信息受益匪浅。
Blackrock一直在欧洲和美国购买银行资本交易，以利用更具监管和更资本的银行系统的有吸引力的收益机会。Rieder还一直在增加商业抵押贷款，他认为比今天高收益率市场上有更具吸引力的观点。他坚持认为，投资者不仅可以看出新兴市场，而是可以在印度尼西亚或墨西哥等特定领域获得牢固的智能。他表示，他的基金打算通过在世界不同的角落里制作很多交易来获利。
Rieder被抽水，讨论固定收入投资者的下一步。他的热情很少适合通常恰到好处的市场。毫不奇怪，他强调资产管理人员需要大，资源和人民为投资以及处理这些投资组合处理衍生品和风险管理的专业知识。他为来自Blackrock的150分析师的投资组合提出了想法。
收入的战略机遇基金是to provide steady returns and diversification. Rieder is proud of its low volatility. In January, usually a good month for investors, the markets were extraordinarily volatile, with pressure on新兴市场and some economic indicators coming in negative. The BlackRock fund was up 0.14 percent. In May of last year, when Bernanke first talked of tapering, the fund was flat, but it lost 1.95 percent the next month, when all asset classes went down together.
BlackRock clients still have 25 to 35 percent of their portfolios in fixed income. “Our clients face a big dilemma,” says institutional business head Conway, who joined the firm in 2011 from Blackstone Group. “They have such a big pool of capital not really working for them anymore and not generating the returns or income that they need.” BlackRock expects its investors to put as much as one third of their total fixed-income portfolios into unconstrained strategies.
Rieder把邮票放在公司的活跃的固执d income, which was losing assets from underperformance during the financial crisis, when he took over, even as rivals such as William Gross’s Pimco were flooded with cash. Performance in active fixed income has improved under Rieder, with about 84 percent of his firm’s funds beating peers over a three-year period. But BlackRock’s big focus on its unconstrained funds may have helped it escape the woes of its competitors in the bond business: The firm was one of the rare winners last year, taking in new money from investors that were pulling a record amount from other managers.
Though he is managing billions of dollars for the rich families of JPMorgan’s private bank and other clients, Bill Eigen still sees himself as the working-class outsider who had to claw his way to the top. Eigen, who fought to work out of Boston, far from the influence of his company’s long-only bond managers, admits that the criticism he’s gotten over the years — including the contention that he’s positioned too conservatively now — just makes him work harder.
陆军机械师的儿子在罗德岛大学举行的吉尔票据上学院进行了养老金销售，在罗德岛大学工作，从而从事一切都在渔船上切割诱饵。1990年毕业后加入了保险公司Cigna Corp.作为固定收入分析师，他很快就讨论了他需要MBA或特许金融分析师指定。没有现金或联系，eigen选择了CFA路线，成为有史以来最年轻的人中的24岁，然后击倒了忠诚投资的门。
By 1998, Eigen was a senior analyst at Fidelity, and he started managing some fixed-income money for the asset allocation funds, introducing a multisector rotation strategy, moving money among asset classes depending on the opportunities available at the time. The concept of active fixed-income management, which is the basis of many unconstrained funds today, was still fairly rare. Eigen took over Fidelity’s fledgling Strategic Income Fund in 2001, using the same multisector rotation strategy; by the time he left, in August 2005, he had built it into a $10 billion business. With risk premiums tight and rates low, Eigen no longer felt he could protect investors’ capital, because he had to be fully invested at all times.
“我在忠诚度上爱了我的日子，但我的整个时间都与他们有一个根本的分歧，他们如何如何运行原始的收入，”他说，他的妻子告诉她他正在戒烟加入对冲基金公司高桥首都管理。但他无法在晚上睡觉，思考速度如何升起他的忠诚基金。他想经营一项资金，以便在任何可能的情况下给予他的利率风险和保护校长。由于相对的回报并躲在与下一个透明的债券经理相比，他认为如何通过绝对的回报衡量他的表现，而不是通过相对回报来躲在他所做的程度上，而不是躲避他所做的事情。
他沉浸在高桥的缩短和对冲技术中，开始了一个固定收入的对冲基金。2007年，他被詹姆斯（JES）Staley招聘，然后是J.P. Morgan资产管理的首席执行官，这些公司在几年前几年购买了大桥的大多数股份。Staley希望eigen以相互基金形式运行相同的策略，使群众可用。
Eigen, who has 19 people on his team, wants investors to know that he is an absolute-return manager — protecting principal first — and managers can’t do that without the ability to hedge or go short. His J.P. Morgan fund uses techniques from three distinct areas. First, Eigen can rotate among sectors to pick up potential market returns, or beta, just like he did at Fidelity. He also employs relative-value trades — going both long and short — to take advantage of out-of-whack prices to generate alpha. Last, he hedges to protect against large, unexpected downward price moves.
特征被批评，以及如何区分他的竞争对手，是他担任现金的意愿。他对此表示道歉。他认为现金是最终的波动和流动性的树篱;如果他不认为有什么值得购买的话，他会囤积它。2008年，J.P.摩根收入机会基金是2007年推出的离岸战略，占其现金的80％的资产，并获得了积极的回报。
但是对于所有复杂性，Eigen的车辆是一款与2014年发动机翻新的老式债券基金。现在他正在希腊五年级债券的3月份从销售中提出提示 - 18个月前，人们不会以44％触动。自从2007年以来，eIgen没有看到投资者达到的收益率，他说是时候出售证券的时候，过去四年他正在赚到很多钱，包括高产，不良抵押和杠杆贷款。他说没有安全的保证金，损失的风险太高，因为他拥有这些证券。如果差价仍然紧张，他将在未来几个月内销售他所有的高产。“现在你可以用它来销售Triple-C-C-C级Crud，你将拥有一堆愿意的买家，”笑了，他有55％的J.P.Morgan战略收入机会基金的现金资产。
J.P. Morgan经理表示，他的许多同行都使用不同的方式对不受约束的无疑和绝对返回的资金，因为投资者需要持怀疑态度，并看看这些经理在遇到麻烦时已经做过的方式。在今天的环境中，eIgen说，很难让债券基金表现得像它应该是锚 - 他的目标永远不会赔钱 - 如果经理没有使用短裤，那么他们就不能绝对回报。J.P.摩根收入机会战略去年恢复了1.63％，严格击败了巴克莱雅，损失了2.02％。
在一天结束时 - 债券牛市的结束 - 绝对回报策略和无限制的投资都不是大型传统资产管理人员的灵丹妙药。eigen说他永远无法管理2000亿美元的资产。他不确定他甚至想要管理1000亿美元。“人们已经忙着建立帝国，并没有足够关注投资者的权利，”他指出。
现在是时候退休的谢尔曼麦科伊。•