Why Chinese Rate Liberalization May Take Longer Than Beijing Suggests

中国利率自由化被比作着汹涌的海洋犁的帆船。它也可以与踢在路上的踢球。

第一个观点反映了中国人民银行（PBOC）政策制定者的观点，他说interest rate reform稳固地当然是需要几年才能到达目的地。后者反映了该项目在没有明确的时间表的情况下是在没有明确的时间表的情况下，留下充足的拖延空间。

China did reach a milestone on the liberalization front in July 2013 when the central bank abolished a mandatory floor on lending rates. Previously, it had set a minimum lending rate of 30 percent below the central bank’s 6 percent benchmark rate. The authorities had abolished a ceiling on lending rates back in 2004.

去年的举动只对市场产生了适度的影响。报废对存款利率的限制可能对市场产生更大的后果，但没有人知道可能发生的情况。

Since mid-2012 the central bank has capped the rate that banks can pay on savings deposits at 3.3 percent a year, barely above China’s 2.6 percent inflation rate for 2013. The low level of rates has fostered a boom in alternative savings vehicles like wealth management products. Some of these wealth products, which are sold by banks and brokerages and are backed by loans to commercial and industrial companies, pay double-digit interest rates. Other nonbank entities have stepped in with money market funds that offer higher rates than the banks do, such as the fast-growing Yu’e Bao fund launched last year by the Internet marketing giant Alibaba.

The success of nonbank savings products that can pay three or more times the bank deposit rate suggests that theChinese economy吉林大学经济学家孙兴杰可以轻松携带自由浮动储蓄率。孙说，财富管理产品的收益率“在一定程度上反映了利率的市场水平”。

So when will Beijing regulators let the market set bank deposit rates? “One to two years,” was the answer central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan offered in March, the first time a government official has suggested a schedule for full interest rate liberalization.

But uncertainty about Zhou’s timeframe quickly surfaced in early April when the bank’s deputy governor, Yi Gang, said the project would not be rushed. That same week an editorial in the state-run人们的每日标准化的“利率改革无法停止，不能匆匆”包括一个在海上的帆船上的动画片，“改革”潦草地潦草地潦草地潦草地潦草地潦草地潦草地潦草地抓住。

经济学家尹志涛，中国社会科学院的金融法专家，政府认为坦克认为，周的提到两年的时间表可能已经过于乐观。

“The interest rate marketization process is a gradual process that involves every aspect of engineering the system, especially the construction of a basic deposit insurance system and an exit mechanism for [failed] financial institutions,” Yin says. “Therefore it will be an extremely difficult thing to completely realize full interest rate market reform in one to two years.”

Other factors also argue for caution, Yin contends. Freeing up deposit rates might be good for savers, but it would increase competition among banks for deposits and could foster volatility in rates, he says. “It may lead to financial system risk ... due to a mismatch between yields and maturities,” he adds. Increased competition could threaten the health of small banks and force big banks to tighten their belts, he says. Considering the industry’s size — China’s ten publicly listed banks last year reported a combined workforce of 1.93 million — the risk of downsizing could induce caution among policymakers. Rate liberalization also could reduce the flow of credit to state-owned enterprises and government infrastructure projects, posing a further risk to employment, Yin says.

The central government controls China’s eight biggest lenders and three policy banks. Provincial and local governments own dozens of smaller banks. Each extends easy credit to state companies by tapping savers’ deposits.

陆正伟，工业银行公司的首席经济学家是一家位于福州沿海城市沿海城市的中型贷方，称自由浮动存款率会严重摇动现状。“银行市场的制约机制现已到位，始终如一地加强当地政府，国有企业和政策银行的预算条件疲软，使其不朽，即使身体可能已经死亡，”陆就在上海。他补充说，利率控制给出不适合的实体“与市场参与者竞争的财政资源，导致财政资源的扭曲和误放度”。

虽然中央银行商只有在一般性地说出他们将如何转向未来利率改革，但Lu设想了导致额外存款利率改革的活动的可能场景。

The first stage would foster a deepening of the recently established market for interbank certificates of deposit, says Lu. The central bank has allowed banks to freely set rates on interbank CDs since December; securities firms and companies can invest in these CDs as well. Speculation about liberalization and the PBOC’s policy aims contributed to big spikes in the Shanghai interbank offered rate, or Shibor, in June 2013 and again in December.

As a second step toward deposit rate liberalization, Lu contends that the government should implement financial institution bankruptcy laws and establish a bank deposit insurance system. The government has not said when it would move on either issue.

第三，鲁说，央行应确定哪个蛇分成熟 - 一夜之间，七天，一个月或三个月 - 它将通过开放式运营来引导基准利率。

在鲁的情景下，一旦银行间CD市场发展得充分发展，当局应推出一项试点计划，使个人和企业能够购买CD，从而为设定基于市场的存款率提供参考点。一旦这些步骤完成，政府可以修改商业银行法，以废除所有贷款的贷款汇总规定，从而确保合理定价存款率。最后，中央银行将废除银行存款的所有速率控制。

Lu的MultiStep情景意味着全汇率自由化是一个遥远的前景。李克强总理于二零一三年六月向其承诺“推动利率自由化”，最近没有讨论该问题，侧重于中国的经济放缓。李告诉努力公司扣除，接受没有政府刺激的市场纪律。在他的盘子上，弱银行和州公司的薄弱银行和州立公司可以放心，至少现在。

Meanwhile, Chinese savers with an appetite for risk can continue to hunt for higher yields in wealth products and money market funds.

Get more onemerging markets。