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当债券投资者想要退钱时会发生什么

随着华尔街潜水,远离固定收入交易,债券经理正在定位他们的投资组合,以实现必然的流动性危机。

当Verizon Communications去年发布490亿美元的债券时,将其收购沃达丰集团,投资经理(包括)黑石andPacific Investment Management Co.,比赛得到了一块交易。管理人员不仅遵守纸张,以满足共同基金投资者的巨大需求,而且还在寻求在危机中易于出售的债券。公司经常向公众销售债券,使每个特定的问题独特,难以在二级市场购买和出售。但是,490亿美元的债券发言给投资者知道他们可能会在另一边有买家的安全性,如果他们需要一个。

在金融危机之前,金钱经理几乎没有理由担心能够销售他们的债券。毕竟,华尔街经销商与借来的金钱齐平,在专有交易中致力于繁琐。虽然2008年清楚地结束了严重的差别,但有一个有钱的经理和投资者:债券市场是高度的液体。Money Managers可以很容易地在几秒钟内轻松销售最深切的债券。

全球范围内的一项法规,包括2010年的Dodd-Frank华尔街改革和消费者保护法案,遏制了银行的专有交易,增加了资本要求,以支持最平淡的债券交易。一项伤亡是有效的固定收入市场。

Verizon不是唯一一家在唯一一直利用低利率的公司以及增加互联网管理人员试图为可能的流动资金危机定位其投资组合的增加的需求。高度评价公司于2013年销售了1.1万亿美元的债券,包括苹果于4月份的170亿美元。在今年年初,债券基金有33万亿美元,而2010年的价格为2.3万亿美元。随着美联储继续衡量其债券购买方案,投资者预计利率上涨和债券价格下跌 - 甚至如果他们在可能发生的情况下没有想法。

北方信托资产管理的固定收入总经理Colin Robertson,他监督芝加哥公司1510亿美元的固定收入投资,并不认为债券熊市迫在眉睫。然而,他仍然将他公司的债券基金定位为流动性紧缩。“投资者对市场震动会发生的担忧,”他说。“我的答案是没有一个好的结局。”

而罗伯逊不能去丘比特的极端ng his funds into cash, he does want to make sure that he can be a buyer of bonds when investors start selling. Northern Trust doesn’t want to be a forced seller, because then the funds would have to dump the most liquid — by definition, highest quality — securities. As a result, it is holding more Treasuries than it would otherwise. The firm is also continually trading into more liquid securities, like newer bond issues. “This is why when new issues come out, they are always oversubscribed,” says Robertson.

北方信托固定收益署认为,每个债券经理都应该害怕市场上缺乏流动性,并且应该对预防强制销售需要做些什么来进行分析。他说,像电子交易这样的举措,这通常可以找到买家和卖家的替代来源,只有对边缘的帮助。

To be sure, some of the largest managers, like BlackRock, are spending millions on initiatives to help with liquidity problems prompted by a restructured Wall Street. Other managers are making preemptive strikes. William Eigen, who, as the head of absolute return and opportunistic fixed-income funds atJ.P. Morgan Asset Management,监督360亿美元的投资组合,一直销售高收益债券。他一直在预期近年来涌入这些基金的流动将转身,并且必须通过现在狭窄的门来挤压。“你会通过一个针孔来熄灭,”他说。曾经一次,华尔街经销商会抓住这些债券,直到市场稳定,然后以利润销售。现在,银行无法承担在库存中持有此类职位的风险。

Government players have presented other solutions. The Federal Reserve is considering requiring redemption fees on certain bond funds to deter investors from fleeing during hard times. Well-respected managers, likeLoomis Sayles&Co.的Daniel大惊小怪那have said they like the idea. The Securities and Exchange Commission is also looking into whether the largest firms like BlackRock and PIMCO get better access to bonds like the ones Verizon issued last year. The SEC is also questioning if the big firms’ dominance might influence the markets when a crisis comes and perhaps make things worse for everybody in the process. Robertson says an exit fee would be damaging to the industry and push investors to exchange-traded bond funds, which have proved to be fairly liquid in times of stress, including the bond market rout in spring 2013.

But there are simpler ways to solve the bond liquidity problem. Managers can stick to higher-quality securities. Robertson says investors can stay with the top end of riskier asset classes like high-yield and emerging markets. Rather than moving into less-creditworthy companies within the high-yield category, they can move some money into emerging markets but again stick with the better credits.

流动性问题也点燃了关于固定收入中活性人的价值的讨论。“用被动,你没有能力将自己定位在流动资产或使用现金的投资组合,”罗伯逊说。至少可能有一个低效的债券市场受益人。

Follow Julie Segal on Twitter at@julie_segal

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