Managers Say Spanish Equities Still Offer Value

Since that famous day in July 2012 when Mario Draghi, president of theEuropean Central Bank，承诺做“保存欧元所需的任何东西，”西班牙股市强劲上升。

德拉奇的评论主要是为了平息炒作，西班牙将被迫离开欧元区，并且至少在金融市场的眼中成功。由于中央银行家两年前讲话，西班牙的Ibex 35索引截至8月21日占近66％，尽管过去两个月是一个谦虚的挫折，但仍然是一个谦虚的挫折。7月份西班牙十年政府债券的收益率低于2.5％ - 两世纪的低点。收益率在8月21日截止了2.40％。

Following those dramatic gains, some investors argue that Spain is looking expensive. The MSCI Spain index, excluding financials, has a forward price-earnings ratio of 16. Several fund managers still see strong opportunities, however.

Providing support for this market recovery has been Spain’s economic turnaround. The country’s gross domestic product rose by 0.6 percent in the second quarter from the first, whereas the economies of Germany and Italy shrank. Two years ago few analysts would have predicted that of all EU countries, Spain would beat Germany, which weathered the euro zone crisis so well, in output growth.

El Segundo，加利福尼亚州的喀布里亚投资管理人士认为，西班牙提供了良好的价值宏perspective. The cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio, a metric popularized by Yale University economist and Nobel laureateRobert Shillerthat compares stock prices with average earnings over a ten-year period, stands at 11.7 for the MSCI Spain 25/50 index, far below the historical developed-market average of 16 or 17 and below current developed-market averages are clustered round 15.

“Spain is one of the cheapest of the 45 markets around the world which we look at,” says Mebane Faber, Cambria’s co-founder and chief investment officer. “It’s not the once-in-a-generation buying opportunity that it was in 2012,” when the CAPE ratio fell to 6.5, but “it’s cheap relative both to other countries and to the historical average,” he adds. CAPE crusaders believe that national stock markets tend to return to close to the historical average, creating opportunities for markets valued below the long-term average. The Cambria Global Value ETF, launched in March, invests in the 11 cheapest of the 45 countries’ stock markets, including Spain. The Cambria fund is down 3 percent since its launch.

Dean Tenerelli, manager of the European Stock Fund at Baltimore–based $738 billion investment management firm T. Rowe Price, sees promise in Spain from both a macro and a micro perspective. “I definitely think the country is on a strong road to macroeconomic recovery,” he says.

他说，Tenerelli对西班牙的股票是如此积极的是，2012年，基金的股票的股票达到了13％，“可能”基金最超重于2005年以来，该基金最多的基金已经在任何国家。然而，他注意到该基金根据股票细节投资，而不是在各国视线。在销售达到目标价格的一些股票后，基金的持有者仍然陷入困境，仍然超重11％。西班牙在MSCI欧洲的加权，Tenerelli作为其超重计算的基础的指数为5％。Tenerelli看到了进一步购买周期西班牙股票的潜力。他争辩，该部门最近厌恶欧元区周期性的厌恶，但挫折不反映西班牙的基本面。欧洲股票基金投资MediasetEspañaCunicación和Atresmedia Corp deMedunicación，该公司经营西班牙的两个剩余的大型私人电视台。竞争对手的崩溃已经掀起了他们的广告价格。MediaSetEspaña，截至8.53欧元（11.33美元）的年度，售价为36.53欧元（11.33美元），具有36岁的前瞻性比率，同比增长48.16％，涨幅为11.29欧元，均为28欧元。

对于那些investors通过如上市公司的这种相对较高的比率遏制，一种选择是投资于非上市的小型和中型企业（中小企业）。这是JZ Capital Partners的方法，伦敦上市的私募股权基金，资产9亿美元，资产融资欧洲和美国Microcap公司。大卫Zalaznick，约旦/ Zalaznick顾问和JZ International，该基金的投资顾问JZ International的主席认为，欧元区周边的持续信贷紧缩提供了强有力的机会。Zalaznick估计，由于银行融资短缺，私募股权购买西班牙语微型私募股权购买的典型倍数仅为兴趣，税收，折旧和摊销（EBITDA），而美国缺乏欠款，税收，税收，贬值和摊销（EBITDA）。

Spanish microcaps are also attractive because of recent labor market deregulation that, according to estimates from Miguel Rueda, head of JZ International’s Madrid office, has cut Spain’s hourly labor costs by 25 to 30 percent. This reform has led Spain “to become the lowest-cost producer in Europe,” he adds.

Someinvestors仍然持怀疑态度，即国内专注的西班牙股有任何距离现在，西班牙经济复苏的消息被市场消化不断，但它们仍然对西班牙的跨国成功案例感兴趣。Sandra Crowl，投资委员会的成员为4.9亿欧元法国投资管理公司Carmignac Gestion，喜欢Inditex，Arteixo，西班牙的公司，是世界上最大的时尚集团。该公司的Zara零售连锁连锁店仅源于西班牙的销售额的6％。Crowl认为Inditex作为欧洲经济反弹的好玩。“随着欧洲恢复，占销售额的65％，我们可以在这里看到新的增长，”她说。Inditex，在22.13欧元的年度上涨10.18％，是23.35欧元的前瞻性p / e。

西班牙资产提供opportunity both for plays on a Spanish recovery and on a broader-based European recovery. August’s euro zone output figures have only sharpened the debate about which of the two is the better bet.

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