在收获疲软和食品通货膨胀中，土耳其看到出口希望

What’s in a nut? If you’re Turkey, this rich source of protein and monounsaturated fat is vital to your macroeconomic health. Known for its pistachio-filled baklava, the country is also by far the world’s top producer of hazelnuts, accounting for some 70 percent of global supply.

尽管如此，大自然尚未合作。土耳其每年通常搅拌近60万吨的树螺母;2013年，赏金的价值约为15.5亿美元。过去冬天和春天的大风暴和霜冻在该国通常的温带黑海海岸上损坏了作物，迫使种植者将他们的前景减少到370,000吨。去年农业亚慱体育app怎么下载产生了大约50亿美元的出口，包括榛子的17亿美元，该国总出口额为1520亿美元。但是，目前账户赤字占国内生产总值的6％ - 主要的主要速度新兴 - 市场经济- 任何击中出口对经济潜在的坏消息。

作为一种供应紧缩织机，当收获本月开始时，榛子的价格被设定为飙升。根据9月2日发布的初始数字，土耳其榛子预计每公斤13土耳其Lira（6.02美元），从去年的6 Lira的价格取比（然后价值2.77美元）。“通过今天的标准，价格将低于10 Lira的可能性非常弱，”穆斯塔伦商品交流领导，榛子国家的中心地区的穆斯塔法Demirci告诉当地新闻网站Haber61.net。

农民和批发商已经储存了坚果，希望他们的商品从外部消费者那里获得更多的东西，例如Ferrero，Alba，基于意大利的糖果店，其产品包括Nutella Spread，Ferrero Rocher Chocolates和Kinder巧克力蛋。根据土耳其报纸的说法，榛子的最大购买者，购买了大约25％的世界供应的供应量，从土耳其的80％的榛子来源Hüriyet.。

鉴于每次13盎司的Nutella含有超过50个榛子，Ferrero对作物有既得利益。7月16日，它宣布其5亿美元收购Top Turkish Producer Oltan Gida，总部位于榛子地区最大的城市Trabzon。

受影响榛子的同一恶劣天气已经达到了产量，并推高了其他几个土耳其出口作物的价格，包括杏，柠檬，开心果和橄榄。全国性的水果产量下降了90％，农业室土耳其农业分庭（TZOB）的主席Semsi Bayraktar表示。

Large domestic and foreign food processors have the capital to weather the storm, but the farm woes will pinch Turkish consumers. Food prices had risen by 14.44 percent in August from a year earlier, the steepest jump in six years, aggravating a situation that saw core inflation — that is, excluding food and fuel — edge up to 9.54 percent, nearly twice the Turkish central bank’s target. Rising inflation doesn’t help the prospects for interest rate cuts, notwithstanding the pressure to lower rates coming fromRECEP Tayyip Erdogan.投了上个月的土耳其的第一个直接当选总统。The central bank, which had jacked up its one-week repo rate by 5.5 percentage points in January to stem the lira’s devaluation, trimmed the rate by a total of 1.75 points, to 8.25 percent, between May and July but held it steady in August. The bank’s next meeting is scheduled for September 25.

One silver lining for Turkey and its beleaguered farm economy is the opening made by Moscow’s recently announced one-year embargo on fruit, vegetables, meat, poultry, fish and dairy products from Australia, Canada, the European Union, Norway and the U.S. In 2013, Russia’s food imports totaled some $39 billion, according to the Geneva-based International Trade Centre; of the $17.2 billion of goods from countries covered by the embargo, $9.2 billion fell into the banned categories. That year Turkey’s agricultural exports to Russia amounted to $1.18 billion, TZOB reports.

大量土耳其作物的产出可能非常滞后。但价格升级，任何农业盈余都可能在俄罗斯找到一个令人愉快的买家，“泰国总统巴克塔尔在8月8日新闻稿中指出，俄罗斯的傲慢买家”特别绑在外面的外面。“简而言之，这可以充分利用苦涩的收获。

Follow Anne Szustek on Twitter at@the59thStBridge。

得到莫re onemerging markets和上macro。