Weekend Agenda: The Week Ahead, September 15 – 19

Several critical macro events are set to come down the pike this week. First off,Scotland’s referendum在whether to declare independence from the rest of the U.K. this coming Thursday, September 18, will be a pivotal moment for the country and by extension, the European Union and global economy as a whole. Any announcements from the Federal Market Open Committee’s meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday, the 16-17, though unlikely to signal any marked change in policy, will be watched closely for any marginal shift in forward guidance language. Geopolitical wildcards includeRussia’s reaction to sanctions from the EU and the U.S.as well as any new announcements from the U.S. government on possible military action against ISIS in the Middle East. Perhaps the biggest single question from a near-term market risk standpoint, however, is whether the forces that have driven the U.S. dollar’s rise in recent weeks will continue to sustain that trend and if so, what that means for bonds, commodities and other risk assets.

Monday, September 15: On Monday July euro zone trade data is due out and in the U.S., August industrial data will be released with consensus forecast for a marginal month-over-month slowdown in production and a modest uptick in capacity utilization.

Tuesday, September 16: The英格兰银行is on deck to release its quarterly bulletin. Other macro numbers from the U.K. scheduled for release Tuesday include August consumer and producer inflation index levels. Consensus forecasts predict a modest month-over-month rebound expected for the consumer price index and a moderate contraction forecast for the producer price index. Germany’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment numbers for the months are predicted to register a significant decline, as Russian tensions continue to weigh on confidence in the EU’s largest economy. In the U.S., producer inflation index levels for August are due out. Forecasts show a flat reading from the prior month.

Wednesday, September 17: On deck is the release of Monetary Policy Committee minutes from the Bank of England’s most recent meeting and the International Labor Organization (ILO) U.K. unemployment rate. Given recent rhetoric from the European Central Bank, euro zone CPI for August is likely to garner particular investor scrutiny. In the U.S., economists do not predict any significant shift in August consumer inflation. For the 12 months ended July 2014, inflation stands at 2.0 percent. The main U.S. macro headline for the day is likely to be theFOMC’s announcement, scheduled for 2 pm U.S. Eastern time.

星期四,9月18日: Japan will release August trade data. As demand from emerging Asian economies softens, the consensus prediction is for weaker exports after the 3.9 percent year-over-year gain registered in July. With discussions centering on ahard China landing, eyes will be on August housing index data in the country. In the U.S. August housing starts and weekly initial jobless claims releases will be the primary economic data points for the day.

Friday, September 19: The macro calendar for Friday will focus on inflation, with August producer price levels due for Germany, September mid-month consumer inflation inBraziland August CPI for Canada.

Portfolio Perspective:Strategas Research Partners—Defense Spending and Defense Stocks in a Period of Geopolitical Uncertainty

“It doesn’t take an overly active imagination to be concerned about the possibility of a new arms race and the remilitarization of countries heretofore willing to come under the U.S.’s defense umbrella. The industry group’s relatively limited number of public companies suggests that defense stocks are likely to outperform for the long term.”