阿里巴巴：等待结束了，价格是否正确？

华尔街会搞定吗？

过去几年已经给了大银行，在艺术艺术中批准美国公共股份销售大量实践，而不是它有所帮助。事情往往会出错。Facebook的首次公开发行于2012年5月，由技术故障造成的，在交易的开放时间内受损，并在三个月内为社会网络公司股价的急剧下降而设定了急剧下降的语气。同时，Twitter在2013年11月7日首次公开募股之后乘坐公共交易开始超过一小时，该市场观察者作为承销商低估需求的标志。股票价格在开放日跃升了70％，圣诞节几乎三倍。

With shares in Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding set to begin trading on Friday morning, capping an historic IPO, the banks organizing the deal are scrambling to make sure the sale avoids the mistakes of the past. But their task is being complicated by a number of peculiarities in the structure of the deal. If the share price falls below the deal price, the IPO will be declared a failure; if it takes too long to open, sentiment could be damaged; if it climbs too high, bankers will be accused of mispricing.

Market participants associated with the deal or interested in buying Alibaba have been reluctant to speak on the record in the lead-up to Friday’s sale, but they broadly agree that the stock should go immediately higher, with most suggesting a 15 to 20 percent pop on the first day as the minimum standard for declaring the IPO a success. But most also agree that there is much that could go wrong.

First, there is the simple question of size. Bankers for Alibaba, which在中国取得了巨大成功building a sprawling and at times seemingly chaotic business built on online shopping, social networking, cheap finance and much else besides, announced Thursday that the company's shares would be priced at $68, the top of the indicated range. This means the offering will raise $21.8 billion, the largest in U.S. history, surpassing the $17.9 billion that Visa raised when it went public in 2008 and Facebook's $16 billion deal in 2012. If underwriters exercise an option to sell more shares, Alibaba's offering could reach $25 billion, smashing the world record $22.1 billion that Agricultural Bank of China raised with its 2010 IPO in Hong Kong and Shanghai.

第二,有需求的问题。投资者thronged road shows in New York, London, Hong Kong and Singapore, fueling speculation of excess demand, but in truth no one will know for sure until Friday. Also, different types of investor want different things. Large investors, such as multibillion-dollar mutual funds, need a lot of stock to create a position big enough to be significant for their portfolios. Underwriters are expected to try to keep these large firms happy; whether that keeps the big players on the sidelines on Friday, or generates a buying frenzy from smaller investors, also remains to be seen.

这项任务将由阿里巴巴交易的第三个特殊性变得更加困难，这就是六个承销银行 - 花旗集团，信用瑞士集团，德意志银行，高盛组织，摩根大学蔡舍集团，摩根士丹利 - 是一支乐队等于。这与华尔街的典型方法形成鲜明对比，其中一个承销商被分配了分配IPO股票的主要作用。阿里巴巴联邦交易结构应在公共交易开始特别激烈的公共交易之前将银行之间的竞争分配给投资者的股票分配：他们都处理相同的大型机构客户;他们每个人都想让客户幸福;他们每个人都希望为投资者提供他们想要的东西。交易规模的三重鞭子，投资者需求和联邦交易结构意味着有很多延误和并发症的空间。Finally, there is the fact that unlike other recent deals such as Facebook’s, where pre-IPO investors were subject to a lengthy lockup period, a large group of Alibaba early-stage investors will be able to sell 128 million shares — roughly a third of the whole public offering — immediately.

最重要的是，有问题困扰着面对面博文时代的任何大型IPO：交易所的技术系统是否足以应对需求和早期交易的压力？

Ordinarily, the opening day of an IPO is largely a pricing-and-trading game, with more patient, longer-term investors sitting things out. In this case, however, traders expect there to be little flipping of Alibaba shares on the opening day — indeed, underwriters have reportedly been most keen to cater to long-term investors. Whether that demand represents a deep belief in the long-term growth potential of Alibaba or a simple expression of herd sentiment is unclear; the large mutual funds and主权财富基金预计将弥补大量的大块机构需求，对股票的股票紧密锁定在周五的销售中。

但较小，长期股权对冲基金亚博赞助欧冠spoke to have all taken the same view: if your strategy is to make money quickly, Friday is your day. But if you care less about intraday price moves and more about underlying value, you’ll do better to wait a few weeks, or even months, until a clearer picture emerges of where the stock price will settle and what Alibaba’s long-term strategy is to grow beyondits existing businesses- 在中国之外。

In the meantime, though, strap yourself in for a wild ride on Friday morning.

Follow Aaron Timms on Twitter at@aarontimms. He will be tweeting livefrom the floor of the New York Stock Exchange for the start of trading on Friday.