投资者兴趣在越南生长。能力也会上升吗？

去年越南跳到了投资者的雷达屏幕当其首席证券交易所上涨20％，东南亚任何交易所的最佳表现。在2008年至2011年的通货膨胀和货币疲软后，当地蓝筹公司的盈利增长以及经济稳定的恢复，外国机构被引人注目。

Foreign money continues to flow in, but the tide is fast pressing up against the capacity limits of the 14-year-old Hochiminh Stock Exchange and the even tinier bourse in the capital of Hanoi. Investment managers are urging the country’s Communist government to take a number of measures, including opening the market wider to foreign investors, to sustain the momentum. Many are optimistic that the authorities will act soon.

“这是一个类似于其他亚洲国家的长期进程，类似于其他20多年来，龙首都集团龙首都市政基金经理龙首都集团首席投资官Bill Stoops表示，管理层有14亿美元的资产。他希望当局允许或鼓励更多公司股票上市以及养老基金和期货合约的创建。

越南官员正在研究让移动eign institutions buy majority shares of local firms and to foster the creation of more domestic institutional investors, which would stoke trading volume in the notoriously illiquid market. In November 2013 the Finance Ministry said it planned to raise foreign ownership ceilings in local companies. Although officials haven’t made any announcements, fund managers predict the ceiling for most companies will rise from the current 49 percent to 60 percent in the first quarter of 2015. The limit for offshore investment in Vietnamese banks will go from 30 percent to 49 percent, state media say.

经过2016 the government is expected to create the country’s first public institutional investor, a retirement fund. Currently, the state social security system, the Viet Nam Social Security Fund, invests mostly in Treasury bills and bank deposits.

Foreign institutions, which already own an estimated 10 to 15 percent of the market, would eagerly buy shares in response to any of those changes, executives say. “An increasing number of fund managers are visiting Vietnam because they are searching for the next big investment story in Asia after the run-up in ASEAN emerging markets in the past few years,” says Marc Djandji, institutional sales and brokerage head at VPBank Securities in Ho Chi Minh City, referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Growth has been running at a steady pace of roughly 5.25 to 6.25 percent for the past six years, and the International Monetary Funds projects output will expand by 5.6 percent this year. Inflation cooled to 6.6 percent last year after spiking to 18.7 percent in 2011, while the dong has held steady for the past 14 months at around 21,000 to the dollar. Foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 2.3 percent in the first seven months of this year, to $6.8 billion, notwithstanding a wave of anti-China riots in May that left several people dead and damaged scores of foreign-owned factories.

“Vietnam remains a beaming light in Asia, thanks to its extraordinary growth potential,” says Phuong Hoang, senior institutional research and investment advisory director with local brokerage and asset manager Saigon Securities. “The one-party power grip over the country has ensuredmacro稳定性，驯服通胀和[培养]汇率非常稳定，而FDI继续流入制造业。“

河内正在推动其他改革，以支撑经济和市场。政府要求国有公司，该公司占国内生产总值的约32％，明年将剥夺最大的非克罗尔资产，以准备初始公开募股。To bolster the banking system and reduce nonperforming loans — which Moody’s Investors Service estimates at 15 percent of total assets in the system — the government has told state-owned bad debt buyer Vietnam Asset Management Co. to offer bonds that commercial banks can use as collateral for loans from the monetary authority. “State-owned enterprises and banking restructuring are under way and are expected to lead to an improved economic outlook and new investment opportunities,” says Hoang.

Foreign investors bought a net $280 million in the first half of this year on the Ho Chi Minh City exchange, up from $263 million in all of 2013. Funds from abroad have hit the 49 percent ownership cap in seven of the country’s 38 blue-chip companies, including telecom operator FPT Corp. and DHG Pharmaceutical Joint-Stock Co., suggesting there will be pent-up demand when the government lifts those ceilings, says Luong Thi My Hang, deputy CEO with VietFund Management, a Ho Chi Minh City firm that manages $95 million in assets.

Yet the market’s capacity remains limited. The stock market has a total capitalization of $55 billion, barely a third of the country’s $155 billion gross domestic product. Most investors look at just 30 to 50 of the 750 companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh City bourse. Many overlooked firms are state-controlled and have weak fundamentals. The 80 biggest listed state-controlled firms “are losing bucketloads and bucketloads of money,” says Ralf Matthaes, owner of the local business consultancy In-Focus.

其他因素也放置了市场上的阻尼器。经过大约五年前国内公司在房地产和股票损失金钱后，政府禁止他们在核心业务外面投资，遏制潜在的机构投资来源。越南还缺乏国家养老金计划，其中有投资资产，这是许多亚洲金融市场的锚，但政府去年建立了指导方针，允许形成私人计划。“养老金基金将取得巨大差异，”越南资产管理的首席执行官Kevin Snowball说，Ho Chi Minh City公司，资产为1.62亿美元。“这里没有机构基地谈论。”

More investment by local institutions would raise liquidity from trading volumes that have averaged $150 million to $200 million a day over the past six months. “Private pension funds and the ETF industry have just been born this year,” notes Fiachra Mac Cana, research head at Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp. “It will take several years to grow in size and become a factor in the equity market. I guess three to five years.”

反映在市场上的信心，越事于8月推出了950万美元的汇兑贸易基金，这是来自当地机构的第一个。基金VFMVN30旨在跟踪交易所的蓝筹股索引VN30。Vietfund正在与Viet Nam社会保障基金的养老金计划谈论，作为第一个外部资产经理，并预计明年反馈。龙首都龙首都越来越历史，越南越南股权UCITS资金作为新开放式基金的“模板”，龙首都的斯托普斯表示。西贡证券计划提供当地开放式基金和ETF，而PXP将探讨推出ETF，如果它可以获得本地许可证。

The market also stands to get a boost from the government’s decision to create a state-run, centralized derivatives market in 2016. That market would add liquidity and allow hedging activities for the first time in Vietnam, says Stoops.

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