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埃及开放投资

官员们说,开罗希望通过恢复与IMF的联系、削减补贴和促进投资来重振经济。

自阿拉伯春天推翻了霍尼穆巴拉克政权以来,已经超过三年半,自埃及军队被淘汰穆罕默德·莫尔西和释放A.血腥镇压穆斯林兄弟会,现在开罗正在寻求翻页并重新加强全球经济。

Egyptian authorities have invited the International Monetary Fund to come to the country and conduct a review of the economy, Egypt’s first since March 2010. The review is expected to pave the way for an IMF assistance package of upwards of $5 billion, according to Hisham Ramez, the governor of the Central Bank of Egypt. The IMF funds would replace billions in support that Egypt is repaying to Qatar, and help support the economic reform program of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Prime Minister Ibrahim Mehleb.

“我们为国际货币基金组织的交易开放,”Ramez在对华盛顿国际货币基金组织和世界银行的年度会议上的面试中进行了面谈。

根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的《协议条款》(Article of Agreement)第四条,IMF成员国应该允许进行年度经济评估,但2011年埃及革命的动荡中断了常规磋商,穆尔西政府转而支持卡塔尔的资金,而卡塔尔的资金几乎没有附加任何政策条件。

Since Sisi won election as president this spring and appointed Mehleb as prime minister in June, however, Cairo has taken a sharp turn back toward policy orthodoxy.

7月份,政府突然削减了燃料补贴,将汽油价格升级超过70%,过夜,达到约1.90埃及磅,升(27美分,1升1加仑1美元)。Subsidies for fuel, food and other basic staples eat up nearly a quarter of Egypt’s government budget, and economists and organizations like the IMF have long urged Cairo to dismantle them as part of a reform program, but governments have shied away from the issue even since former President Anwar Sadat triggered bloody riots in 1977 by announcing plans to raise the price of flour.

“这些都是改变,我们已经希望很长时间,”Ramez说。“我们正朝着正确的方向前进。”

7月的举措预计将使政府的预算赤字在7月开始的财年中减少约500亿英镑,或略高于70亿美元。政府预计,赤字占国内生产总值(gdp)的比例将从12%降至10%左右。

尽管此举引发了一些零星的抗议,但尚未出现大规模的公众抗议。拉米兹说:“我们向人们有效地解释,你不能真正地在医疗上花钱,你不能真正地在教育上花钱,因为有这么大的补贴账单。”“人们知道背后的原因。”

中央银行于7月份升温了100个基点100个基点,将其主要政策率提升至9.75%,以便在先发制人的竞标中遏制燃料价格上涨的通胀压力。通货膨胀率在8月份的8.2%上升到6月份的11.5%,但汇率在9月份达到11.1%。Ramez表示,敲门式对价格的影响一直不到中央银行预期的,旨在使通货膨胀恢复为单位“一年的时间”。

In recent days the central bank has repaid $500 million in Qatari loans, and Ramez said the bank expects to repay the remaining $2.5 billion in loans when they come due on November 1. The move will dent the country’s reserves, which stood at $16.9 billion at the end of September, but Ramez expressed confidence that a rebound in foreign investment as well as IMF resources would shore up the country’s finances.

“我们肯定知道我们无法忍受,”他说Qatari贷款。“我们将依靠投资,在旅游业,在常见的业务上。”

国际货币基金组织预测,埃及的经济今年将增长2.2%,接下来的3.5%,并认为通胀从10.1%上升至13.5%。虽然该基金欢迎补贴削减,“显然,更多需要做出更需要的是为成长和就业发展的经济环境,”世界经济研究部长的托马斯·伦·呼吸们在年度会议上表示。

Ramez表示,政府正在向9月签署的签署致力于加强合同的确定性,以提高投资环境。他还引用了上个月的640亿英镑的价值为国内投资者为苏伊士运河的扩张作为改善信心的迹象。

“埃及是开放的投资,”中央银行人说。“埃及证明,尽管发生了这一切,但这是一个稳定的国家。这是该地区的一个基石。“