责备它在欧洲：集团的困境正在推动市场畅销

Two years ago, Mario Draghi pulled Europe back from the brink of disaster by promising to do “whatever it takes” to prevent a breakup of the euro. The single currency has survived, but the bloc’s economy is deteriorating once again. What’s more, fears are building that Europe lacks the consensus and the tools to pull out of the slump, and that in turn is sending financial markets around the world into a tailspin.

The recent slide in global stock prices turned into a rout on Wednesday, with major European indexes falling around 3 percent and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbling more than 3 percent at one stage before rallying late in the session. The yield on the U.S. Treasury’s benchmark ten-year note plunged an astonishing 33 basis points at one point — the biggest intraday move since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings six years ago — and traded much of the day below 2 percent before recovering to stand at 2.13 percent late in the day, still the lowest level since June 2013.

Fresh U.S. data on Wednesday came in weaker than expected, with the government reporting small declines in U.S. producer prices (-0.1 percent) and retail sales (-0.3 percent) in September, but few analysts believe those numbers explain the severity of the market drop. Instead they say that rising concerns about Europe, which dominated conversations among financiers and policymakers at the annual国际货币基金组织世界银行会议上周末在华盛顿，油价下跌对全球复苏的信心并触发投资者的大量冒险。

“Sentiment was very negative at the IMF meetings,” says Alberto Ades, head of emerging markets fixed-income and currency strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. “Everyone was positioned for higher Treasury yields. Nobody had Treasury yields going down.”

德国在周二围绕着欧洲经济围绕欧洲经济的萧条，通过将其预测降至今年的1.2％，下一步1.3％，下降1.8％和2％以前。早些时候，国际货币基金组织通过今年将18个国家欧元区的增长预测降低到今年30个基点的预测，仅为0.8％，明年将达到20个基点，达到1.3％。它还估计，即将到来的年度欧元区经济衰退的风险升至近40％，通货紧缩的风险近30％（另见）欧洲仍然是全球经济中的薄弱环节“）。

Reza Moghadam, vice chairman of global capital markets at Morgan Stanley and former head of the IMF’s European Department, summed up the feeling of many. “Inflation is far too low and growth is even more disappointing,” he told a panel session at a gathering of the Institute of International Finance, held on the margins of the IMF meetings. “You are not seeing a pickup in demand or investment in Europe.”

Polled to identify the biggest threat to the global outlook, 46 percent of the crowd at the IIF meeting cited the risk of a European recession, compared with 23 percent who cited increasing geopolitical turmoil from Russia, 20 percent who pointed to a hard landing of the Chinese economy and 9 percent who identified美国债券市场的波动性。

Europe’s weakness elicited a dovish response from Stanley Fischer, the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, who said in a speech at the IMF meetings that “if foreign growth is weaker than anticipated, the consequences for the U.S. economy could lead the Fed to remove accommodation more slowly than otherwise.” Market participants who two weeks ago were speculating that the Fed could begin hiking rates as early as April 2015 are now pushing back their forecasts to September and even November of next year.

欧洲对美联储和美国的影响是压倒性的，争夺加拿大财富管理公司Gluskin Sheff + Associates的首席经济学家和战略家。“在今天的今天的水平上没有德国外滩收益率为0.85％，”没有办法，“周三为客户写信给客户。

呼吁欧洲在德国在柏林的大臣默克尔政府的门口或法兰克福的欧洲央行的门口上做一些不可避免的土地。上个月BenoîtCoeuré，欧洲央行执行委员会的成员，德国劳工部长JörgAsmussen，呼吁德国利用其预算的leee促进投资并削减工资税，以促进刺激增长。

IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard urged the euro leaders to boost investment in infrastructure, saying it would spur their economies in the short run and raise potential growth rates over the long term. Larry Summers, the Harvard economist and former U.S. Treasury secretary, endorsed that idea.

“What’s happening in Europe is not working,” he said at a panel on Europe at the IMF meetings. “What followed in Japan was 15 years of deflation and dismal economic performance, followed by dramatic declines in interest rates. That is the path that Europe is on without a substantial discontinuity in policy.”

Notwithstanding the recent slowdown, however, German officials continue to reject calls for fiscal stimulus and says Berlin will stick with plans to balance its federal budget in 2015. “We’re not going to help the German economy with some flashes in the pan and more debt,” economics minister Sigmar Gabriel said Tuesday in releasing the government’s latest growth forecast.

德国也继续要求遵守欧洲联盟的预算规则，本月晚些时候与法国建立潜在的冲突。EU governments submitted their proposed 2015 budgets to the European Commission on Wednesday, and the government of Prime Minister Manuel Valls is believed to have sent a plan envisaging a deficit of 4.3 percent of GDP, virtually unchanged from this year, and remaining above the EU’s 3 percent ceiling until 2017. Barring a sudden about-face in Berlin, the EC is duty-bound to reject the French budget and demand changes when it meets on October 29, raising political temperatures in Europe. That seems unlikely to boost confidence in France, which had its credit rating outlook lowered to negative by Standard & Poor’s last week.

欧洲中央银行将于10月26日发布其资产质量审查和主要欧洲银行压力测试的结果，这是一个官员希望在银行业的备受信心。“不确定性将在本月底消失，”欧洲稳定机制负责人克劳斯·赫斯（欧盟稳定机制）表示，欧盟设施于2012年创造的欧盟设施负责债务成员国的救助。“这可能产生积极的影响。”

一些银行家怀疑欧洲央行审查将对他们的业务和更广泛的经济进行宣泄效果。“它会在一夜之间改变吗？我怀疑意大利Unicredit的首席经济学家Erik Nielsen在周末告诉了一个IIF小组。“几乎没有对信贷的需求，因为公司没有看到对产品的需求。”

对于许多分析师来说，欧洲深化的恐惧和缺乏任何政治反应意味着欧洲央行最终将被迫踏上全面的量化宽松和购买主权债券。然而，很少有人认为这样的举动会急剧改变前景。作为莫里茨克劳斯默尔，标准普尔的首席主权评级官员在国际货币基金组织会议上表示，“我们认为持久增长将仍然难以捉摸。”

The big question facing global investors is whether Europe’s woes, and the resulting turmoil in global markets, will cause wider economic damage. Many economists remain relatively sanguine, at least for the moment. Economists at Barclays actually raised their forecast for third-quarter U.S. growth to an annual rate of 3 percent, up from 2.5 percent previously, because of strong business investment. Eric Chaney, chief economist at French insurer AXA, contended in a research note that recent payroll gains and strong corporate profits should sustain U.S. growth at a rate of 2.5 to 3 percent, and calls the sharp drop in Treasury yields an overreaction. But he noted that a sharp drop in German bond yields this summer presaged a subsequent deterioration in economic indicators there.

The markets seem to be of two minds, underscoring the growing anxiety. The U.S. stock market, even after its recent losses, is pricing in 3 percent U.S. economic growth, while the bond market is pricing in “a recession-like backdrop of 1 percent growth,” Gluskin Sheff’s Rosenberg wrote. “Both cannot be right.”

Follow Tom Buerkle on Twitter at@tombuerkle。