欧盟压力测试从法兰克福到柏林的转变

欧元区的银行在最终的地区呈现出最强大的新闻，这一宣布是最近几乎没有乌鸦的地区的好消息。但是，欧洲中央银行在星期天交付的干净健康状况将不会自行提供振兴该地区经济的火花。

欧洲央行的大银行审查最终会结束，希望在一年中开始很高doubts about the system’s health一劳永逸地打破了弱银行之间的联系，债务危机的根源债务危机。2010年和2011年，伦敦欧洲银行权威的两项早期测试未能放心，促使欧盟领导人将银行监管的工作作为最后的手段。

自1月以来，中央银行已有大约6000名监事，外部顾问审查了130家银行的书籍，以评估贷款的质量和损失条款的充分性，并确保他们拥有足够的资金来承受新的危机。虽然少数德国声音，包括合格的汉斯·韦尔斯罪，但批评了未能评估通货紧缩潜在影响的练习，这项运动并不缺乏严谨性。欧洲央行欧洲央行银行承担了不利情景的银行，涉及到2016年基线趋势下降6.6个百分点的经济衰退，并抑制通货膨胀仅为0.3％。

完全105欧元地区的130大银行直接通过了测试。另一个十几家银行有适度的资本短缺，但通过提高资本或脱落资产来缩短它们 - 今年。留下了13家银行面临的combined capital shortfall of €9.5 billion($12 billion). The single biggest, Italy’s Monte dei Paschi di Siena, will have to come up with €2.1 billion. In most cases, the banks will have nine months to take corrective action after submitting plans to the ECB by November 10.

The results should come as little surprise. Banks have been acting with increasing vigor to shed assets and raise capital since the ECB announced plans for the asset quality review and stress test last year. Since June 2013, the 130 banks have raised €60 billion in fresh equity, sold €32 billion of contingent capital bonds (considered to be like equity), generated an additional €44 billion of capital through retained earnings or provisions and sold assets that had the effect of boosting banks’ capital ratios by another €67 billion. The banks started the exercise with a common equity tier-1 capital ratio of 11.9 percent on average, well above the ECB’s target minimum of 8 percent and the actual current regulatory minimum of 4 percent.

无论疑惑可能徘徊，练习都走出了减少银行爆炸的风险。这是一个受欢迎的结果，但它远非足以跳跃欧元区的经济。随着通货膨胀运行仅为0.3％，法国和德国的增长速度和意大利现在处于三重衰退，无论供应，对信贷需求都很少。这就是为什么银行上个月对欧洲央行的目标长期再融资业务进行了这种剧烈的使用。中央银行购买资产的证券和涵盖债券几乎肯定会令人失望。即使是全面吹动的量化宽松，市场叫做哪些市场，不太可能移动针。当美国联邦储备于2008年开始QE时，长期的财政收益率高于3％。如今，德国的基准十年政府债券收益率为0.86％，并对其他欧盟主权的差价急剧下降。很难看出国内央行如何购买主权债券可以带来低得多。

政府 - 由德国的总理安吉拉·默克尔领导 - 抓住恢复信心和恢复增长的钥匙。法国和意大利继续在急需的结构改革上摊位，大部分偏离政治季节，而且因为这些措施在短期内抑制了增长。德国是一个国家的规模和刺激行动的能力。该国持续支付盈余27.4亿美元，或去年国内生产总值的7.5％。这比中国的盈余超过1000亿美元，并且在GDP方面的三倍以上。欧元区不能回归健康 - 它的困难成员无法在控制下获得债务 - 如果其最大的经济持续不超过它消耗的影响。

The outlines of a potential compromise have long been in the air: some kind of fiscal relaxation from Berlin along with credible reform commitments from Paris and Rome. So far, Germany shows little sign of giving in. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble says the government is looking at ways to spur private investment but will stick with plans to achieve a balanced budget in 2015. The coming weeks could see a showdown. The European Commission of José Manuel Barroso is almost certain to reject the draft 2015 budgets from France and Italy when it holds its final meeting on October 29, raising political tensions in the bloc. His successor, Jean-Claude Juncker, wants to stimulate the economy with a €300 billion package of infrastructure investment, but that will require firm backing from Germany.

欧元区今天最大的问题是缺乏增长。这使得公司和家庭几乎不可能减少债务负担，并在欧盟机构削弱信心 - 以及潜在的欧元。这就是为什么压力测试真正重要的是柏林与其他欧盟资本之间的原因。