巴西是当然失去令人垂涎的投资级信用评级，除非重新当选总统，迪尔玛·罗塞夫，当然变化和重大经济改革出发，分析师说。
“巴西目前陷入了高通胀的滞胀均衡，并且在纽约拉丁美洲经济研究领导的纽约拉丁美洲经济研究领导的纽约拉姆索斯·拉莫斯表示，”巴西持续了高通胀均衡“。”“我无法看到政府在第二个期间大大改变其经济政策。它可能对货币和财政方面进行一些调整，但这将不足以恢复市场信心。“
金融市场很快就会向选民的决定注册他们的失望将Rousseff归还给总统在10月26日选举后，真正的压力和巴西股价立即下降。Banco Central Do Brasil在10月29日，令人惊讶的25个基点加上令人惊讶的25个基点加上稳定的市场，以11.25％。分析师欢迎这一举动。分析师表示，Rousseff旨在反对竞争期间寄宿费率的需求，并且央行的快速行动展示了真正的通货膨胀战斗决心。
“中央银行最近的速度徒步表明它具有真正的自主权，”巴西巴西的巴西经济学家布鲁诺罗维亚说。“巴西与其他一些拉丁美洲国家不同，因为它具有很强的机构，不仅是央行，而且是央行，也是选举法法院，最高法院和国会。”
Yet Brazilian asset prices remain weak. The real was trading at 2.5374 to the dollar on Monday, off from 2.49 on the eve of the election and down nearly 12 percent since the start of June. The São Paulo Stock Exchange’s IBOVESPA index was trading around 53,600 on Monday, up 4.1 percent for the year to date but down more than 13 percent from its high for the year in early September, when a surge of support for opposition candidate Marina Silva was fanning hopes of a change in leadership. (Silva was eliminated in the first round of voting in early October.)
该国的经济数字正在恶化。Brazilentered a technical recession during the second quarter, and most economists believe output has continued to decline in the second half. The country’s 12-month rolling consumer price inflation rate is currently around 6.5 percent, at the top end of the central bank’s target range of 4.5 percent plus or minus 2 percentage points. The trade deficit hit $1.17 billion in October, the highest since?? 1998.
The fiscal situation has also worsened. In September the public sector posted a much wider than expected primary deficit (which excludes debt-servicing costs) of 25.5 billion reais ($10.1 billion). Over the 12 months to the end of September, the consolidated public sector primary fiscal surplus slipped to 0.61 percent of gross domestic product, substantially below the government’s target of 1.9 percent. This year the country faces its first annual primary deficit in almost two decades. The twin fiscal and current-account deficits are now tracking at a combined 8.6 percent of GDP, the worst picture in almost 15 years.
市场参与者急切地等待任命一名新财政部长替换Guido Mantega，一个现任和Rousseff忠诚者的分析师表示，分析师表示损害了政府对宽松的财政政策和过于乐观的经济预测的可信度。分析师预计卢梭本月从一个短暂的名单中选择了一个被提名人，其中包括纳尔逊巴博索萨，前副省长部长;亚历山大·泰博尼，中央银行总统;和Luciano Coutinho，经济和社会发展（BNDES）的强大国家银行总裁。
Analysts say an appointment of Barbosa could send a welcome signal of fiscal discipline. Barbosa was deputy finance minister from 2011 to 2013 but resigned, apparently because of differences with Mantega and with Treasury Secretary Arno Augustin over alleged creative accounting to meet the government’s fiscal targets.
Tombini, who has led the central bank since 2011, was initially viewed as dovish on monetary policy but spearheaded the rate rise last month to contain mounting inflationary pressures. Coutinho leads an agency that has grown substantially since the 2008–’09 financial crisis; BNDES extended 190 billion reais in credit in 2013, one third more than the World Bank. Analysts regard him as someone who is committed to state intervention in the economy.
分析师质疑新财政部长的机动房间将有多少，因为Rousseff对微观的经济政策进行了密切。“帝国在她的第一个期间非常密切参与经济管理，”巴克莱的罗维说。例如，“只有政治改革似乎是她目前的议程 - 例如，没有微观经济政策改革。我没有看到政府发生的经济方法的任何有意义的变化。可能会有更可靠的财政号码，但这是关于它的。“
在前总统LuizIgnácioLulada Silva下，巴西在一代人中享有最优质的经济表现，因为每年增长约为4％。虽然巴西受益于大规模的贸易促进条款，但由于大豆和铁矿石等商品的蓬勃发展，分析师向卢拉的信贷促进了较贫穷的巴西人的收入支持，同时为私营部门提供了相当大的余地。
During Rousseff’s first term, growth slowed to an average of about 1.6 percent a year, a weaker performance than all but two presidential administrations since Brazil became a republic in 1889. In September the government cut its growth forecast for this year to 0.9 percent from 1.8 percent previously, but most private economists predict the growth rate will be barely positive for the year, given the decline in the first half.
总统曾倡导国家参与the economy and meddled in the affairs of state-controlled enterprises such as Petroleo Brasileiro, the oil giant. During Rousseff’s first term, Petrobras, as the company is known, had $44 billion in operating losses, mainly from being forced by the government to sell fuel at below-market prices. Rousseff is a former energy minister who served as chair of the Petrobras board prior to assuming the presidency.
Allegations of corruption at Petrobras dogged Rousseff during the election campaign. A former executive, Paulo Roberto Costa, who was arrested in March on money-laundering charges, told prosecutors that an alleged kickback scheme diverted money from Petrobras contracts to politicians, mainly members of Rousseff’s Workers’ Party, according to Brazilian press reports. Petrobras has delayed the release of its third-quarter earnings after its auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers, declined to sign off on the results due to the corruption allegations, according to the newspaperO Estado de S. Paulo。
Under the Workers’ Party of Rousseff and Lula, which has been in power since 2003, the country’s overall tax burden has risen from 32.6 percent of gross domestic product to 36.4 percent.
Arminio Fraga, who was central bank president from 1999 to 2002 and drafted the economic platform of Aécio Neves, the centrist presidential candidate of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party whom Rousseff defeated in the October 26 runoff election, argues that the country’s economy can be fixed only by restoring credibility to the budget and by bringing inflation down to the long-term target of 4.5 percent. Fraga, who is co-CIO of Gávea Investimentos, a Brazilian hedge fund firm owned by JPMorgan Chase & Co., had promised to reform the country’s tax system if Neves won and appointed him finance minister, by introducing a national value-added tax and by removing taxes on exports and investments.
巴西并不是立即失去其艰难的投资级地位的危险 - 自2008年以来享受了它 - 但如果Rousseff没有改变大头钉，它可能会面临下降2015年。
3月份标准和穷人的降级巴西的外币汇率为BBB-，最低的投资级评级。“我们因财政方面缺乏透明度而降级了主权，”拉丁美洲主权主任董事Lisa Schineller说，在标准普尔的董事林纳·斯·斯科勒说。“所有机动削弱了宏观信誉。我们觉得弱势财政状况可能会继续。接下来会发生什么取决于公共债务是否继续上升，政府给出市场的信号和经济政策的整体执行。“
9月份穆迪在巴西的BAA2评级下降了两种缺口，投机等级上方的两种缺口，从稳定到负面。“今年的巴西出来的数字比预期更糟糕，”穆迪拉丁美洲主权风险集团经理Mauro Leos说。“下一届政府将在漂亮的经济海峡遇到经济。恶化的债务到国内生产总值数据证明了为什么市场担心巴西可能失去投资级别。这对该国是一个大的交易。“
“Brazil has disappointed during the last four years,” adds Leos. “Investors can handle one bad year, but they have a much greater problem with four consecutive poor years.”
总体政府债务于2010年9月上升至国内生产总值的61.7％，占GDP的56.7％和53.4％。它在过去12年中，2002年和2009年在过去的12年中，它在前两次上升了60％，但迅速下降增长加速的门槛。“关注的是，债务水平将继续上涨这次，”莱斯说。“明年我们将决定我们是否必须改变信用评级。”
巴西的情况如此岌岌可危，即一些分析师认为它可能会强迫Rousseff改变政策。然而，如此，没有真正的迹象发生了这种情况。
“在我看来，巴西正处于刀刃上，”Goldman Sachs的Ramos说。“我认为它将以非常积极的方式或非常消极的方式感到惊讶。”