Depressed Valuations in Emerging Markets Offer Opportunities

Most emerging markets have been out of favor in recent years while U.S. equities have shown impressive gains, creating a divergence between developed and emerging markets. ForRob Arnott, that spells opportunity.

Arnott，Research Autiliates的董事长兼首席执行官，加利福尼亚州纽波特海滩，专门从事Smart Beta策略的公司，表示，许多发展使投资者从新兴市场退回。“你有普京在东欧的游行,” he says of Russian President Vladimir Putin. “You have the中国阴影银行系统looking distinctly fragile. You have elections across Latin America shifting step by step in a more socialist direction. You have blood in the streets — literally, not figuratively — across the Middle East.” And to top matters off,沙特阿拉伯派出油价下跌11月拒绝削减生产时。

The recent sell-off may offer a rare opportunity for courageous investors to increase exposure to emerging markets at deep discounts, says Arnott. Although investors can’t know when the bear market in EM equities will end, emerging markets are “priced to provide some pretty remarkable forward rates of return,” he contends.

David Iben., chief investment officer and lead portfolio manager at Kopernik Global Investors in Tampa, Florida, shares Arnott’s optimism. He believes investor attitudes toward emerging markets are prone to excessive swings.

“我认为市场在4或五年前的新兴市场中的资源犯了一个错误，”Iben说。“我认为他们现在正在巨大的错误，以巨大的折扣为美国，当这些国家几乎可以在未来十年中比我们更快地增长。”他指出，MSCI新兴市场指数的交易是在该指数中的大约12倍的收益，而美国股市在约18倍的收益中交易。“美国，50％越来越昂贵，虽然美国将在长远来看，”宜本说。

投资者looking to take advantage of the valuation gap between those markets must beware of “the risk of value traps,” cautions Allan Conway, head of emerging-markets equities at Schroders in London. Stocks that look cheap by price-to-earnings ratios but may fall even lower still, he warns. Yet even Conway sees signs that the bear market in EM equities is coming to an end. “The last three or four years, emerging markets have underperformed quite significantly,” he says. But as 2014 draws to a close, he adds, “even with the massive volatility in the last month or so, emerging markets year-to-date are slightly outperforming developed Europe and Japan.”

此外，近年来新兴和发达市场之间的大部分巨大分歧与基本面的差异相反。“如果你看看新兴的相对于发达国家的盈利增长，那么有点差异，”康威说。考虑到2013年的案例，当标准差的500指数上涨33％时，虽然MSCI新兴市场指数下降了3％，但新兴市场的收益在今年的新兴市场增长了6％，几乎与美国收益的7％一样多。“在今天离开的地方，发达的市场往往看起来更昂贵，新兴 - 便宜，”他指出。

The rising dollar has made emerging-markets performance look worse than the underlying fundamentals suggest, according to Arjun Jayaraman, portfolio manager of the Causeway Emerging Markets Fund in Los Angeles. Emerging markets this year have been flat to slightly higher in local currency terms, he says. The weakness of the MSCI Emerging Markets index, which was down 4.39 percent this year as of December 29, is mainly a by-product of the strong dollar because that index is denominated in the U.S. currency. The MSCI Emerging Markets index has actually outperformed the MSCI EAFE index, covering Europe, Australasia and the Far East, which was down 6.38 percent over the same period.

在传感效应中提醒生长1998年，许多不是石油和天然气生产者的新兴国家都遭受了大股权价格下跌。“他们应该从较低的油价中受益，”杰拉曼说，尤其是石油进口商中国，印度，韩国和台湾。虽然他认为来自美联储的逆风，但预计将于2015年开始逐步提高利率，但他认为石油价格较低，可能会抵消高等美国利率的影响。

Causeway is overweight in its allocations to India, giving it a weight of 11 percent, compared with India’s 7 percent weighting in the MSCI EM index. That’s not surprising, given that Indian equities are up 26 percent this year in U.S. dollars. “India is one of the few countries where growth can improve,” says Jayaraman. “In China, in the rest of Asia and in Latin America, all the growth rates are falling.” Causeway expects emerging-markets economies to grow by 4.5 percent in 2015.

纽约的S＆P Capital IQ国际跨资产投资分析师John Krey表示，世界各地的许多新兴市场经济“在岩石和艰难的地方。”例如，在巴西通货膨胀上，赤字正在扩大，增长正在放缓，“不是央行趋势的最佳组合与之合作。”

S&P Capital IQ recommends that investors overweight allocations to China, Taiwan, the Philippines andSouth Korea. In Latin America, Krey recommends increasing exposure to Mexico and Colombia while reducing it toVenezuela，厄瓜多尔和阿根廷。他还建议接触更高的风险Poland, Hungary and Israel, whereas he prefers reducing exposure toTurkey，俄罗斯和南非。

The bottom line is that emerging markets are offering bargains to investors who have the courage to comb through the possibilities and find bargains with good growth potential. “As a contrarian, I like that a lot, but it goes hand in hand with a clear need to be patient,” says Arnott. Prices can go lower from here, he warns. “That’s why it’s important to not overcommit to a cheap market, because it can get cheaper. You can ramp up exposure when it is hammered to lower prices.”

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