随着石油的价格陷入困扰，曾经被称为黑金的商品的大部分力量所造成的货币。这10％的卢布下降12月中旬的一天是自1998年以来的最敏捷，俄罗斯违约债务。经过contrast, the Indian rupee, which suffered during times of high oil prices because the country imports so much petroleum, has strengthened against many other currencies — “so much against people’s expectations of 15 months ago,” says Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in London.
这些令人惊叹的变化集中了投资者在哪些货币上的思想，他们应该避免，鉴于这一点油价崩溃。他们的观点在很大程度上取决于他们看到价格标题的地方。
In mid-January Brent crude kept sinking to fresh five-year lows, well under half its 2014 peak, reaching $45 a barrel on January 13. Many investors expect oil prices to climb this year but not to the levels of 2011 through 2013, when they rarely dipped below $100.
Alex Dryden, a London-based global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management (JPMAM), is “fairly confident” that Brent crude will rebound to about $80 to $85 by the summer of 2016 as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries gradually works out a deal to cut production to put a floor on prices.
Atul Lele，CIO为51亿美元的Deltec International Group，拿骚，巴哈马私营银行和财富经理，更乐观。在今年的某些时候，他预计石油将在全球工业生产增长的同时增长至90美元。
即使这些预测成真，后果也不像普通货币一样看涨，因为它们看起来可能会出现。“我们在石油货币上不再投资的原因是因为石油价格变化对国家财政的影响不是线性的，”莱赫说。
他估计，许多国家在原油价格上制作了预算，以至于他们可能达到的水平。JPMAM计算“盈亏平衡”价格 - 各国政府可以运行均衡预算的“盈亏平衡” - 在包括俄罗斯和委内瑞拉在内的一系列国家的100多美元。
Investors expecting a bounce back in the oil price could seek to profit by allocating to certain depressed oil-based currencies. JPMAM’s Dryden says a “strong-stomached investor” could put money in the hard-hit Nigerian naira, which has dropped 11 percent over the past three months, to 185 to the U.S. dollar. Analysts point to Nigeria’s relatively conservative oil price assumptions: The country’s 2015 budget is based on a forecast of just $65 a barrel for Brent crude this year, a downward adjustment from its October forecast of $78.
What are the currency plays for those who think oil prices will remain weak? “It’s easy to see what you’d sell,” says BNY Mellon’s Derrick, citing oil-dependent currencies such as the ruble, the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar. “It’s hard to see what you’d buy.”
欧元已经为这些bea的首选货币rish on oil. The euro area is a big net petroleum importer and stands to benefit from lower crude prices. But fears of deflation in the euro area spiked after news came out earlier this month that consumer prices fell 0.2 percent in December from a year earlier. Many analysts and investors are betting that the European Central Bank will launch a big bond-buying program at its January 22 meeting in a bid to combat deflation pressures and stimulate the economy. Most analysts believe such quantitative easing would drive down interest rates and the euro. Indeed, anticipation of QE has depressed the euro against the dollar in recent weeks.
“欧元区目前的最后一件事就是任何对价格下跌的东西，使消费者不想花钱，”德里克说。同样，大多数分析师谨慎对日元升起的兴奋，即使日本经济因石油价格较低，而且由于日本银行的大规模QE计划一直推动货币。
虽然卢比在近几个月内做得很好，但在许多货币上，它仍然陷入困境，达摩金票据。尽管有页岩油繁荣，但强劲的美国的增长结合了美国利率的预期，美国仍然是净油进口商。
这为投资者提出了一个难题，旨在将对石油的看法翻译成货币策略：鉴于美国股票崛起和美国债券的低产率升高，留下了多元资产，提供了一个体面的回报。
Abi Oladimeji是托马斯米勒投资的投资策略负责人，伦敦的2.8亿英镑（42亿美元）财富经理，倡导由净石油进口商的新兴市场发布的美元债券。当油价下降时，这些经济体变得更加丰富，因为消费者的收入实际上是实际的，他解释道。
一些投资者，如果石日本的Dryden建议韩国和土耳其债券尽可能扮演，但其他人认为后者可能太冒险，因为土耳其的波动的经济和政治局势。廉价油不会解决这个问题。