Mizuho Takes Top Spot on 2015 All-Japan Research Team

来自日本的经济数据继续让人失望。上个月，政府估计，10月至12月的国内生产总值增长的年度率为1.5％，远低于共识预期2.2％。工业生产从1月到2月截至同月，国家消费者价格指数在近两年内首次未能提升的同月。

In mid-March the Bank of Japan acknowledged that inflation is likely to remain flat “for the time being,” prompting many market observers to wonder if policymakers might pursue an even more aggressive program of quantitative easing to jump-start growth in the world’s third-largest economy.

Yohei Osade，Mizuho Securities集团的全球泛亚股权研究负责人，并不相信将发生这种情况，至少在近期。“在Boj的Parlance中，”暂时“一般意味着大约六个月”，“他说。“BOJ保持其评估，即通胀预期从一定长期的角度来看整体上升。我们考虑唯一会在六月季度提示额外宽松的案例将是核心CPI的增长率远低于零或通货膨胀率期望的广泛下降。“

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日本股权研究负责人Nomura的Jun Konomi，同意。“迅速行动 - 四月或七月 - BOJ不太可能，”他断言。“它将忽略当前的通货膨胀放缓。它认为放缓是暂时的，油价下跌的主要原因，并认为这些价格将在刺激需求时对中等和长期通货膨胀对上升压力。“

这种贫血背景不抑制对日本股票的需求。3月中旬，自2000年春天以来，基准日经225指数在19,000令吉之上首次关闭19,000号标记 - 在两周内推出了500分的额外500分。可以理解的是，投资者想知道股票价格如何，当总理在谢佐·阿卜埃的三管齐下的三管齐下的可持续康复，通常被称为前言人时，将开始。要了解，许多投资组合管理人员将向销售方面寻找指导。他们说，该公司的分析师提供最有用的见解是Mizuho证券，捕获了第一名亚博赞助欧冠所有日本的研究团队连续第二年。它赢得了28个职位，超过2014年。野村，去年与Mizuho分享了胜利者的圈子，将其分为第二名，共计23名。

SMBC Nikko Securities在第三位稳定上有19个景点。戴华证券集团在拿起四个职位后，将一级升至4号，使其总额为18.两家公司分享第五层，每次11个点。美国银行Merrill Lynch，其总落在五个中，第四位滑倒，而三菱UFJ摩根斯坦利证券证券公司即使在去年的总数不变，也从8号开始。

这些结果反映意见of more than 1,100 buy-side analysts and money managers at some 375 institutions that collectively oversee an estimated $1.2 trillion in Japanese equities.

点击Leadersin the navigation table at right to see the full list of ranked firms, or Best Analysts of the Year to view profiles of the people in first, second and third places and to find information about when the researchers debuted in their sectors, the total number of appearances they have amassed to date, their total appearances at No. 1 (where applicable) and comments from money managers about what distinguishes each analyst from his or her peers.

也可从这链接a list of analysts who earn a runner-up spot in each sector. Please note: Information about individuals in the second and third positions, and runners-up, is available tosubscribersonly.

The全日本研究团队名人堂在2013年推出的，在调查的20周年上推出，向曾达到至少十个部门顶级出现的分析师致敬，今年欢迎两名新成员：Shinsuke Iwasa米佐河证券集团，谁在广播中领导阵容;和瑞银的Mariko Watanabe., the No. 1 analyst in OTC & Small Companies.

另一个名人堂，Nobuyuki Saji在三菱UFJ摩根斯坦利，在经济学中延伸到第14年。他认为中央银行将被迫在今年晚些时候扩大其量化宽松计划，最有可能于十月。经济增长“仍然缺乏真正的势头”，“他指出，”政府诱发的工资徒步旅行是支撑私营部门需求的主要因素。“Saji预测本月始于当前财政年度的GDP仅为1％。

Nomura的Konomi希望该国家每次增加一次;虽然Mizuho的橱窗是集团最乐观的，但呼吁增加2.3％。

他说：“由于美国经济的下行风险和日本市场需求的上行潜力，我们认为，我们维持我们的中央投资组合关注国内需求。”

零售是他的团队认为将在未来一年内推出广泛市场的一个部门。“全国百货商店销售额同比增长1.1％，自去年四月消费税收以来的第一次增加，”伊斯达特报道。“然而，超市销售额下跌0.8％，连续11个月下降。百货商店在农历新年假期期间，百货商店的差异是捕捉来自海外访客的需求，特别是来自中国。“

Real wages (total earnings minus year-over-year change in the CPI), which have fallen or flatlined every month for nearly two years, “should turn positive in April once the impact of the consumption tax hike drops out. Large employers have agreed to 2.4 percent wage increases this year, the largest since 1998,” he adds. “Individual stock selection is particularly important in the retail sector, although we remain overweight because consumer spending is set to recover.”

Mizuho团队也看涨施工名称，这在过去12个月中大部分地表现出，但在3月开始延长。“经修正的质量保证法案的主要目标是在4月期间生效，是澄清发布公共工程订单的实体的职责，防止减贫，确保承包商可以以合理的利润水平运营，并使业界成为更具吸引力的就业选择年轻人，“伊斯德解释道。“7月份生效的其他法律将提升现场安全。我们预计市场在主要建筑公司的保证金中价格恢复。传统上没有以其对股东的关注而闻名的，但我们预计越来越多的公司在出版中期计划时将纳入[妥善值]目标。“

Konomi分享了对零售商的积极看法，并包括他的行业名单上的房地产，精致优惠。“过去的房地产股中的主要集会已经看到部门的股价从下半场升起了五次五到六年”，野村研究主任解释说。“假设我们已经进入了一段长期的股价收益，因为Boj的定量和定性宽松，我们可以预期房地产库存一般在一年的周期中表现良好。我们仍然看到房地产行业基本面的稳步改善。“

One industry that investors would do well to avoid, he adds, is pharmaceuticals. “The government is increasingly attempting to rein in drug expenditures,” Konomi says. “Earnings at makers of branded drugs have been lackluster of late due to government initiatives to encourage greater use of generics. The government is also thinking about constraining drug expenditures over the medium term by introducing cost-benefit analysis and strengthening the role of insurers, with detailed discussions likely from the second half of this year ahead of April 2016 drug price revisions.”

他补充说，投资者可能会对这些讨论产生负面反应，并指出日本的制药股一般在两年前对国民健康保险报销价格进行了较差的一年。“因此，我们预计2015年的表现良好，”他总结道。“此外，减少了股息收益率的兴趣，利率的可能性升高是我们认为药品部门将低于表现的其他原因。”

Overall, though, he believes that stock prices will continue to move generally upward and has a year-end target of 20,000 for the Nikkei 225. “Improving fundamentals and upgrading corporate governance — which is one big achievement of Abenomics — are basic reasons for the current bull market,” Konomi says. “Looking over the medium term, we forecast that the Nikkei average will reach 25,000 in 2018 under our Abenomics success scenario.”

Osade believes the index will peak this year in June, at 21,000, and then retreat. “Forecasting the level at the end of 2015 is a bit difficult for us because we expect the Nikkei average to move in a range of 18,000–20,000 during the second half of the fiscal year,” the Mizuho research director says, citing a number of factors that could increase volatility — interest rate hikes in the U.S.; supply overhang caused by the initial public offerings of Japan Post Holdings Co., which many analysts expect will set a global record; and “waning public support for the Abe administration as it tries to push through its national security legislation.”

Even so, he sees cause for optimism. Companies are likely to be conservative when issuing their guidance for the current fiscal year, followed by “upward revisions as first-half reporting season approaches,” Osade says. “We have little hope of major positives from the third iteration of the government’s growth strategy [to be published in June], although we do expect stocks to be lifted as the corporate governance code takes effect and companies enhance their distributions ahead of shareholders’ meetings. Also, investors may take a more positive view of the domestic demand recovery from April, when lower year-earlier figures will make retail sales growth look better.”