国际货币基金组织本周发布了一个不变的全球增长预测，这是一个近年来一直在持续修改其前景的机构的欢迎变革。然而，本周从华盛顿聚集在华盛顿的春季会议，几乎没有感觉良好的因素，因为国际货币基金组织和世界银行的春季会议。
The subdued atmosphere stemmed in part from the modest nature of the IMF’s economic projections. It expects the global economy to grow by 3.5 percent this year and 3.8 percent in 2016. That would be up marginally from 3.4 percent in each of the past three years, but still well below the rates of 4 percent to 5 percent that prevailed for much of the previous decade. The global financial crisis still casts a long shadow over the economy, in effect.
“We believe that growth is just simply not good enough,”Christine Lagarde是，国际货币基金组织董事总经理周四在正式开始的会议开始时表示。“不足以减少高失业率，不足以增长中产阶级收入，不足以推动减贫。”
And as lackluster as the growth outlook is, there are significant risks — an anticipated U.S. rate hike later this year, a potential Greek default and exit from the euro zone, the distorting effects of central bank easing policies, volatile currencies and capital flows — that could derail the economy.
“自10月以来，全球金融系统的风险增加，并向该系统难以评估和更难以解决的系统，”基金的货币和资本市场部门负责人何种意义。他补充说，大风险从“从银行到非银行到非银行，从流动性风险和发达的经济到新兴市场。”
在巨大的风险中，预科政策制定者是联邦储备委员会将于今年晚些时候提高利率的前景。当和通过多少，将决定涟漪在全球资本市场中的大程程度。
虽然小心不要进行预测，但该基金建议市场可能会对2013年中期的所谓的锥度Tantrum进行震撼，当时暗示美联储将开始蜿蜒逐渐筹码其定量宽松计划将市场发送到尾翼。“这种风险目前不是市场参与者的重点，”国际货币基金组织在其半年全球金融稳定报告中表示。然而，“如2013年5月 - 2013年5月在2013年6月在2013年6月所见，10年年库的突然增加了100年的基本要素，即使在一般的消融环境中，即使中央银行致力于提前沟通意图。”
Such a move could spell big losses for investors who have helped drive down yields on government bonds to unprecedented lows and moved into riskier parts of the credit markets in a search for yield. Yields on ten-year government bonds are lower today than a year ago, standing at around 1.89 percent for U.S. Treasuries, a mere 8 basis points for German Bunds and –17 basis points forSwiss bonds。
“参与追逐消失产量的较大风险将在国际住区银行研究领导者中推进了负面的境内，”杨松乐铉嵩泉“曾在会议的人工区举行过经济会议。“较低的术语溢价导致消极，我认为我们可以确定越高，它的反弹越高。”
当然，风险和增长前景密切相关。虽然国际货币基金组织在其世界经济展望中保持了不变的全球预测，但published this week那it lowered its forecast for U.S. growth this year to 3.1 percent, down by a half percentage point from January, while raising its forecast for growth in the euro area by 0.3 point, to 1.5 percent, and by 0.4 point for Japan, to 1 percent. In short, the Fund says QE by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan is working, weakening the euro and yen and shifting growth from the U.S. to Europe and Japan. Weaker than expected data on U.S. industrial production and retail sales this week told a similar story.
基金官员认为，转变对平衡是积极的，为欧洲和日本经济提供急需的势头，同时没有威胁美国，认为恢复有势头。“我们认为美国有更多的调整范围，因此可以抵消大部分升值的影响，”国际货币基金组织的首席经济学家Olivier Blanchard表示。
希腊是另一个很大的不确定性。雅典和欧洲联盟合作伙伴的锡鲁兹政府之间的紧张局势仍然很高，对达成协议的前景来促使释放新资金的前景，使希腊政府能够在未来几周内进行关键债务偿还。
Lagarde took a firm line to scotch any idea that the Fund might give Greece an extension on a €747 million ($804.2 million) repayment due next month, which Athens has reportedly been seeking. The Fund has not allowed any borrowers to delay payments in the past 30 years, she said, adding, “It’s clearly not a course of action that could actually fit or be recommendable.”
国际货币基金组织和欧盟官员似乎决定与雅典共同打球，坚持欧元区的希腊退出将是可管理的，因为欧元区经济和金融系统在过去的两三年里得到了加强。询问了一个格塞特的潜在影响，Blanchard说：“它不会流畅帆船，但它可能会完成。”
A senior EU official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the risks of contagion to the rest of the euro zone were “minimal.” But, he acknowledged, a Grexit would be a leap into the dark, much like the U.S. decision to let Lehman Brothers Holdings go bust back in 2008. “We don’t have any experience with this,” he said.
大多数会议参与者希望他能在一个月的时间里说同样的事情。
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