崛起拉丁美洲公司债务带来风险，机会

快速增加拉丁美洲公司债务has raised eyebrows for some investors, who wonder if the collective burden is sustainable for the region’s companies. Yet many investors believe such risks shouldn’t deter them from seeking out multiple opportunities.

据拓荒作用，拉丁美洲企业去年发布了价值1780亿美元的债务，从2013年的1650亿美元起，标志着第六次直接年度增加。大多数 - 1.09亿美元 - 以美国美元计价，在当地货币470亿美元。狮子的发行份额来自巴西的公司（560亿美元）和墨西哥（600亿美元），其中失去了拉丁美洲最大的公司债务发行人的地幔Brazilin 2009, only to regain it in 2013.

Some analysts worry about the ability of companies to service so much dollar debt given the weakness of Latin currencies, which have been hurt by anticipation of U.S. monetary tightening and by the continued unwinding of the price boom in commodities. “One of the biggest vulnerabilities is depreciation,” says Siddharth Dahiya, London-based head of emerging-markets corporate debt at $504 billion Aberdeen Asset Management. “A number of companies have been able to borrow through external debt, but they don’t have any external income.”

Dahiya指出墨西哥房东，在其祖国建造了低成本的房产，主要通过美元贷款来源，在墨西哥比索衰退到美元的速度下，从13岁开始偿还，从13岁开始偿还。过去一年。

Soummo Mukherjee, a Santiago-based debt analyst at Itaú BBA, the investment banking arm of Brazilian bank Itaú Unibanco, cites the plight of Automotores Gildemeister. The Chilean car importer buys vehicles in dollars and sells them in local currency; its business has been hit by a 9 percent decline in the Chilean peso, to 605 to the dollar in late April from about 550 in May 2014. In April the company asked investors to take losses of as much as 50 percent on its $700 million in dollar-denominated bonds as part of a debt restructuring; investors have rejected the proposal, leaving Gildemeister struggling to shoulder the existing burden. “Our view is that the company will find it very difficult to meet its ongoing debt service payments,” Mukherjee contends.

Gildemeister also suffers from a problem that has afflicted many other Latin American corporate debt issuers: a slowdown in the domestic economy, largely because of commodity price drops. The importer was wrong-footed by an 11 percent contraction in Chile’s auto sales last year, Mukherjee says.

一些国家的进一步脆弱性是政治。这在巴西最明显，其中涉及国有能源巨头PetróleoBrasileiro和其承包商网络的腐败丑闻已经提高了政治不确定性，加剧了该国的经济衰退，并导致国际投资者害羞地远离新老债务。在年初和4月2日之间，只有两家巴西公司发出美元计价的论文，拓荒报道。

对巴西政治和经济的恐惧已经发送了崛起的收益率，尽管他们自年初退回了一点。根据伦敦的Bluebay资产管理的说法，巴西企业债务对巴西企业债务的平均分布率为4.89％，以9.85％的收益率为6.85％;从国债以上的3.81分，或者在2013年4月的3.51％。整个拉丁美洲的传播也扩大了，但两年前的3.26点到国债的3.67点。Bluebay引用JPMORGAN公司新兴市场债券指数多样化家庭的数据。

紧张国际投资者的巴西企业债务的击打拼写机会，管理人员为590亿美元的蓝宝竞争。“有时候巴西有一般风险的情绪，你看到伦敦蓝宝的新兴 - 市场信用队的投资组合经理Anthony Kettle说，您可以看到对所有领域的传播。“当您看到应该从巴西货币的趋势中受益的公司时，就会提供机会。”从2014年9月的2.25年度，3月份的美元拒绝了近33.30美元，但在4月下旬恢复了一些贸易部约为2.93。

例如，水壶在拉丁美洲农业出口国中看到承诺。他们没有遭受能源和矿业公司经历的价格胸围，因此他们可以继续赚取强大的美元收入。美元的涨幅使农业出口商更容易维持其业务成本，这是在当地拒绝下降的业务成本。这是一个案例，远非漏洞，当地货币折旧可以努力为一家美元债务的公司的优势。其中一些农业业务是大发行商：宇宙，巴西集团在农业兴趣的较大兴趣，2013年3月在五年票据中发布了5亿美元的债务和5亿雷（1.7亿美元）。亚慱体育app怎么下载

Aberdeen’s Dahiya also sees the bright side of currency depreciation. Take Brazil’s Vale, the world’s biggest iron ore producer: Much of the company’s production is in Brazil, where the fall in the real has reduced costs in dollar terms. Dahiya also sees an upside to the commodity price slide. Although he acknowledges that the price of iron ore has plummeted, Vale is a “very low-cost producer, so even in this environment these guys make money.” The yield on Vale’s seven-year triple-B bond has eased to 4.4 percent from a high of close to 6 percent in December, at the height of the Brazilian political crisis.

出口商在d定价商品和大宗商品ollars could be in an even stronger position if the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s first rate hike in many years, which many analysts are forecasting for later in 2015, boosts the greenback further. But Latin American corporate debt specialists tend to play down the positive or negative fallout from a move that financial markets have expected for many months.

Dahiya says there could be awkward side effects of a U.S. rate hike, including a temporary loss of emerging-markets liquidity as dollar investors return home. “If markets shut down, some companies with imminent maturities could face pressure,” he explains. “However, the bigger ones should be fine because they will have good access to local banking markets.”

从理论上讲，拉丁美洲的企业债务可能比在全球流动性下降的前一天难以维持，因为它是如此丰富。但是大亚没有担心。“有时人们看着债务数量，并认为整体美元债务的增长看起来非常可怕，”他说。“但人们需要在这些经济体的背景下看待它。外部企业债务总额占GDP的百分比并没有增加这么多，因为GDP本身一直在很多。“

Dahiya Notes，尽管过去一年左右的经济疲软，但拉丁美洲国内生产总值远高于十年前高于10％的产量，仍然低于10％。结果，他补充道，债务不会构成系统风险。

In short, long-standing investors in Latin American debt see reasons to be wary but reasons to be greedy too.