Scandal, recession and weak oil prices have caused economic vitality to seep out of Brazil. Now the money is following.
富裕的巴西人正在向海外派遣更多的资产，因为关于家庭的经济和政治稳定，担心过去一年的真实情况下降了27％，将继续阐明价值，银行家和资产经理人说。这一趋势是2000年代经济繁荣的年份的回归，当巴西的恶性通货膨胀和疲弱的增长促使许多国家的投资者寻求国外财富的安全避风港。
“In the ’80s and ’90s, wealthy Brazilians had 20 to 30 percent of their wealth invested in dollars,” says Rogério Pessoa, co-head of wealth management atBTG Pactualin Rio de Janeiro. “I think we are seeing a return to those kinds of levels now. It’s a process of normalization.”
巴西的经济，从2004年到2011年的平均年度增长率为4.3％，已经到了一个虚拟的停顿。今年第一季度的增长持续了否定，预计2015年的持续收缩1％或更多。该国因石油和农业商品的价格而受到伤害，而PetróleoBrasileiro的主要腐败丑闻涉及漏斗对承包商和政客的回扣有数百万，已经损坏了商业信心和摇滚总统Dirma Rousseff’s government. Rousseff, narrowly re-elected to a second four-year term in October, saw her approval rating plummet to just 13 percent in March. She served as chair ofpetrobras.from 2003 to 2010.
2月，穆迪将Petrobras的降级为垃圾债券地位，许多投资者觉得主权可能失去投资级地位。After years of heavy spending led the government to run a primary budget deficit (that’s before interest payments) of 32.5 billion reais ($10.4 billion) last year, recently appointed Finance minister Joachim Levy has been pushing austerity measures, including 69.9 billion reais in spending cuts, that will hit the economy in the short run. The bad news has punished the real, dropping the currency to 3.13 to the dollar on June 5, from 2.28 a year earlier.
根据资产和财富管理高管的说法，所有这些坏消息都引发了一场资本航班。根据奥特拉维奥维埃拉的说法，Rio de Janeiro的Fides资产管理合作伙伴，今天富有的巴西人往往占据20％至40％的资产海外，大约是五年前的百分比。
“这是一个阴阳效应，”迈阿密董事总经理Paul Arango表示，拉丁美洲私人银行贸易委员会信贷瑞士证券，瑞士银行的扶手，管理资产150亿美元。“在某些年份，我们的陆上业务在巴西做得很好;其他年来，我们的离岸业务表现得更好，“他说。后者肯定是今天的情况。“随着巴西的不稳定增加，高净值投资者在海上移动财富，我们的美国业务通过进一步增长，”他说。“
A similar trend is seen by Elliot Dornbusch, chief executive of CV Advisors, a Miami-based multifamily office that advises 55 families across Latin America with $4.4 billion in assets. “Wealthy families in most Latin American countries have invested large sums overseas for a long time, but the culture in Brazil has been to reinvest at home,” he says. “This is the first time in decades that we have seen high-net-worth Brazilians move a significant chunk of their money offshore.”
巴西的国内财富管理市场感受到海上投资的增加。从2010年到2012年，当地私人银行管理资产平均每年平均扩大22％，达到2012年底达到52.7亿雷，但在过去两年中，年增长率降至10.5％，带来了10.5％根据巴西金融市场协会，葡萄牙首字母缩略词，Anbima的葡萄牙首字母缩略词，资产为6450亿瑞士法资产。
大部分的国内行动是在3月固定收益kets these days. In a bid to contain a rising inflation rate, Banco Central do Brasil has hiked its benchmark Selic rate nine times and by 3.75 percentage points in total since the start of 2014, with the latest 50-basis-point hike in early June, leaving the rate at 13.75 percent. Analysts say high rates have attracted investors to local products such as tax-exempt bonds, agribusiness credit bills (Letra de Crédito do Agronegócio, or LCA) and real estate credit bills (Letra de Crédito Imobiliário, or LCI) offered by commercial banks.
“Investors, even sophisticated ones, have gone back to basics and are investing in these types of products,” says Flavio Souza, head of wealth management services at Itaú Unibanco, Brazil’s biggest commercial bank. “However, despite the high interest rates, they still want to invest overseas because of the challenging local scenario, and to protect against currency devaluation.”
Souza指出，巴西企业利润已瘫痪，股市疲软;SãoPaulo证券交易所的IBovespa指数在过去两年中占据了距离，并占2010年底高的约27％。最初的公开发行和收购也枯竭。去年，10月份兽医制造商Ourofino只有一个IPO，4.18亿真实的提供。当66 IPO筹集了323亿美元，这是2007年保险杠年度的哭声。
“The wealth market normally expands rapidly when there is a fast-growing economy or when there are important liquidity events,” says Pessoa of BTG Pactual, which has about 70 billion reais under management. “We are not seeing any of that at the moment. However, we are witnessing a very healthy M&A pipeline. The currency devaluation has made Brazilian firms attractive purchases for foreign investors.”
The trend of increased offshore investment stands to get a boost from recent regulatory changes, meanwhile. In December Comissão de Valores Mobiliários, the country’s equivalent of the Securities and Exchange Commission, adopted new rules that will enable mass-affluent investors to put greater sums offshore. The rules, which take effect in July, remove an onerous restriction requiring so-called qualified investors to make a high minimum investment of 1 million reais in a single fund, a big hurdle for most of the mass affluent in Brazil. Under the revised rules, fund managers are free to decide the minimum investment in offshore funds. A separate rule change has doubled the upper limit that qualified fund investors can place overseas, to 40 percent of assets.
“这对该行业来说是一个巨大的发展，因为它意味着200,000到300,000名客户将达到新标准，”拉丁资产管理公司的首席执行官Thomas Ciampi表示，这是一家基于新泽西州的研究和咨询公司的首席执行官。“许多全球经理想要在巴西植物根源，并通过当地经理设立饲养资金来利用规则变化。”
However, Pessoa is not convinced that demand for these feeder funds will be so great when Brazilians can invest in high-interest-rate products at home. “The rule changes are important, but interest rates and the economic course matter more,” he says.
Meanwhile, the weakness in the domestic wealth management market has precipitated something of a shake-up in the industry. In March 2014 Julius Baer, the Swiss private bank, acquired a 50 percent stake in GPS Investimentos Financeiros e Participações , Brazil’s largest independent wealth manager with more than 15 billion reais under management, for an estimated $107 million. The purchase lifted the Swiss bank’s stake in GPS to 80 percent.
1月份意大利的Azimut控股宣布将在LFI Investimentos购买50％的股票，这是一家位于管理层5亿ReaiS的巴西多方面办事处，为850万雷。
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