Crispin Odey’s Unconstrained Approach to Hedge Funds

Crispin Odey在中国永远不会大。基于伦敦的对冲基金公司Odey资产管理的同名创始人和CIO为128亿美元，于2013年访问了内地，并没有享受经验。The jet lag was a killer, the trip felt like an endless series of meetings, and, most important, he didn’t see anything he wanted to invest in. In the spring of 2014, however, China began to dominate Odey’s thinking thanks to research published by Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Lombard Street Research in London.

Choyleva主张，迅速上升，人民币的劳动力成本升高，以至于中国的劳动力成本越来越多，以自2007年底以来，美元条款的增加约为21％，Choyleva主张。为了应对增长较​​慢，北京充斥着债务的经济，但随着国家作为出口国的竞争力较低，债务负担变得更加危险。经济学家估计，人民币被高估了10％至15％。

Odey had little direct exposure to China, but Choyleva’s work strengthened his bearish convictions, particularly about Europe. A hard landing in China would cascade through the emerging markets and make it all the more difficult for the European Union to resolve its debt problems and restore growth, leaving the U.S. as the last man standing in the global economy. In June 2014 he repositioned the investment portfolio of his $2.9 billion flagship Odey European Fund, becoming net short European equities and ramping up a big long position in the U.S. dollar. He was also short the Australian dollar, a proxy for Chinese growth and a reflection of his prognosis for the Australian economy.

解释他的理由在末日的信to investors in December, Odey wrote, “we have used all our monetary firepower to avoid the first downturn in 2007–09, so we are really at a dangerous point to try and counter the effects of a slowing China, falling commodities and EM incomes.” If economic activity falters, he added, “then there will be a painful round of debt defaults.” The downturn, he warned, was in its infancy: “It is too early to see what will happen — a change of this magnitude means the darkness and the mist is very great.”

Odey的投资者很少知道他是如何引导的。在年度较为谦虚的情况下，当美国疲软的美国经济指标疲软时，投资者被禁止了这个春天的守卫。造成美元兑换美元兑美元的堕落和欧洲股票回应更强的数据。odoxy欧洲基金于4月份失去了惊人的19.6％，今年前四个月将其占18％以上。

odey并不孤单。最近，大多数对冲基金都努力产生值得注意的回报，因为主要中央银行的大量宽松有浮力市场;许多对冲基金经理今年开始相信美元是这个地方，只有在美元枯萎时受苦。然而，Odey的损失因任何措施而异。他们在20年前在预期放气循环的情况下加载了债券时诱发了一个错误的记忆，而是看到美国利率飙升和债券价格崩溃，几乎在这个过程中脱下了他的公司。

对于许多其他管理者来说，一个月的绘图，如4月 - 奥德大约25年的对冲基金职业 - 会拼写灾难。但丰富多彩的投资者已经表现出显着的调整和反弹的能力。他的历史和经济学学生，他知道经常归因于经济学家John Maynard Keynes的说法的真相：“市场可以保持不合理的时间比你保持溶剂。”虽然Odey仍然是关于全球经济的深刻疑虑，但他于4月下旬逐渐逐渐逐渐逐渐达到他的立场，承认欧洲中央银行的量化宽松比他预期的牵引力更多。

“4月是一个经典的例子，当它看起来像是发生的事情，突然间 - 爆炸 - 市场说，'不，它现在不会那么;QE将拯救一天，“他告诉亚博赞助欧冠。“我被路由一会儿。你必须削减你的损失“并重新组合。

A European equity fund taking big positions in currencies and making a bold prognosis for China’s economic outlook is unusual, but Odey is no ordinary hedge fund manager. Although he started out as a long-only equity manager, he has insisted on investing in any market that makes sense to him, modeling his style on that of his initial backer, George Soros. He also has a history of making — and mostly winning — bold bets. As one investor puts it, “Crispin does what other fund managers think but are afraid to do.” Crucially, Odey has a loyal client base — much of it high-net-worth individuals rather than institutional money — that understands his strategy and respects his investment acumen.

Those investors have been rewarded over the long haul by Odey’s formula. Even after the April losses, his hedge fund firm, one of the oldest in London, has delivered annualized returns of 12.51 percent since inception in 1992. Although he now has suffered 20 percent losses on three occasions in his career, Odey has navigated some of the toughest market tests with aplomb, performing strongly through the tech boom and bust in the late 1990s and early 2000s and excelling during the global financial crisis: His European fund returned 130 percent over the course of 2007 and 2008.

统计上，大多数对冲基金在其前三年的存在中有最佳回报。odey是稀有的经理大多数时间随着时间的推移而越来越好。然而，他的表现一直是易失利的，他没有骨头。“我在令人惊讶的时刻赚钱很快，”他说。“我也很擅长亏钱。”

这句话是典型的奥迪式的——一方面狂妄自大，一方面自嘲，另一方面表现为一个对自己的信仰充满信心，对自己的皮肤感到舒服的人。作为一个英国的反传统主义者，他沉浸在传统中，但对权威持怀疑态度，他拥有一个首屈一指的朋友和人脉网络。他在政界也占有重要地位。作为前首相撒切尔夫人（margaretthatcher）的拥护者，奥迪一直在批评今天的保守党领袖、新当选的首相卡梅伦（davidcameron）。他希望英国能够从欧盟中引导更加独立的进程，并给英国独立党提供资金，英国主张退出英国。随着英国即将在未来两年内对欧盟成员国进行全民公决，Odey将是一个值得关注的关键人物。

Odey Asset Management is more than just the man. The firm is still in the same offices where it started — an early-Georgian town house on Upper Grosvenor Street, just down the road from the American Embassy — but the staff has grown to 113 people, including investment, risk management and research teams. The firm offers a number of different funds, run by a variety of portfolio managers, most notably co-head of research James Hanbury, who runs more than $2 billion, as well as Tim Bond, Feras Al-Chalabi, Michele Ragazzi and Massey Roborough. Hanbury and Bond have been posting strong returns and have their own strong investor bases.

1995年加入该公司的odey和首席执行官David Fletcher并负责管理和建立业务，一直小心培养一个不同的投资者，了解他们在与CIO投资时所获得的。“除非你有客户群，否则你不能是一个逆势，”弗莱彻说。“我们真的喜欢客户而不是门票。”

Yet despite its growth, the firm remains subject to the whims of its founder and CIO. Although the outfit long ago outgrew its Mayfair home, Odey refuses to move, necessitating the establishment of a second office around the corner to house back-office and marketing staff. Such a headstrong attitude makes Fletcher’s job more challenging, but it has given the firm its character and edge. As Fletcher puts it, “It’s important to have unreasonable inputs into a business.”

Robin Crispin William Odey出生于1959年10月12日，位于赫尔北海港附近的约克郡村庄的Hotham。他的祖父乔治·德州是一名自制人士，私人秘书向主席升起，成为董事长的英国皮革制造商Barrow，Hepburn＆Gale，它生产由U.K.政府部长携带的标志性的红色皮革公文包。他的父亲理查德后来在那里曾在那里担任董事总经理。odey有一个特权的成长。他参加了一个精英男孩的寄宿学校哈罗学校，他的父亲曾经是主男孩，是一个着名的立场，类似于阶级总统。16岁时，他上了牛津大学，于1980年毕业，历史教会学院历史和经济学。

他搬到了伦敦，并鼓励他的祖父训练成一个律师，但他很快就会沿着不同的方向拉动。他的父亲在苏格兰的制革厂在一个会计丑闻中失去了工作，并继续在一系列失败的企业中赔钱;他幸存下来的颂歌的祖父，足以让债权人保持在海湾。损失强迫odey出售家庭，让他留下了强烈的愿望，让自己的财富出去，这对他来说意味着一件事：金融。当时，他和一个在伦敦市的股票经济的朋友住在一起。“我只是一个糟糕的律师，他是一个富有的股票经纪人，”德古召回。朋友告诉他，“Crispin，你可以做到这一点。”

结果是如此。凭借他的成功，Odey已经设法收购财富（2013年的2200 000多岁），并且一个特权生活方式远远高于他在他的青年时代。他拥有历史悠久的18世纪的乡村庄园，埃特巴赫法院，在院长的英国Bicknor（人口408）村，迪恩州的森林，靠近英格兰的威尔士。在那里，他沉迷于他喜欢的国家追求，如鸟射击和钓鱼。他在2014年吸引了令人争论的时候，他寻求批准建立25万美元的鸡舍 - 一个巨大的775平方英尺的结构，如希腊寺，完整的离子柱和石材山地，檐口和弗里泽，他已经完成并完成了现在用作图书馆。

Odey在迅速迁至亨德森·宠物管理前，在伦敦的一名小型股票经理，这是一家总部位于亨德森行政总局和伦敦商人银行野蛮的合资企业的伦敦的一名小型股权经理。

20世纪80年代是伦敦的形成期 - 以及盟约。这座城市在撒切尔主义的鼎盛时期，作为总理私有化的大量企业英国，自由化金融市场和欢迎国际资本。Odey在亨德森·宠物上蓬勃发展，1992年将该公司的欧洲增长信托达到2.6亿英镑（价值45500万美元），并以智能股票选择器制定声誉。

Odey’s social life was as meteoric as his business career. In 1985 he married Prudence Murdoch, the oldest daughter of Australian publishing magnate Rupert Murdoch, who then was transforming the U.K. media landscape through his ownership of theSun和时代newspapers. Two months after the nuptials, Mr. and Mrs. Crispin Odey were featured in a时代在汉普顿宫宫举行的报纸上的威尔士王子和公主的嘉宾报告;其他客人包括撒切尔和丈夫，丹尼斯。

Odey的婚姻持续不到两年，但基金经理与他前岳父的媒体帝国保持了关系。他的频繁股权职位之一涉及默多克的欧洲卫星电视业务。2014年，Odey在竞标中举行了一项积极的活动，以阻止他的U.K.公司Bskyb的Sky Deutschland，Murdoch的少数民族控制的德国联盟;Odey在德国单位举行了8％的股份。虽然Odey没有成功阻止这笔交易，但贸易盈利，今天他是综合欧洲工资电视业务，天空的投资者。

In 1991, Odey remarried, to Nichola Pease, a member of the wealthy Quaker family that helped found Barclays Bank and managing director of Smith New Court, a major brokerage later acquired by Merrill Lynch & Co.

然而，odey在工作中愤怒地愤怒地愤怒地愤怒地愤怒地繁重。1989年，Barings将其资产管理活动纳入了Baring Asset Management。这种变化意味着在新政权举动中冒充阳性的自由丧失，以采用集中式股票筛查和选择过程。也许是一种精细的方法，但不是一个人适合一个喜欢称自己的曲调的人。此外，他觉得他需要改变。“经过15年的跑步长期赚钱和制度金钱，我觉得很无聊，”他告诉II。“Boredom is the only thing you just don’t want to have.”

A senior Barings executive, Christopher Heath, introduced Odey to Gerard Manolovici. An emerging-markets trader for George Soros, Manolovici was described in a 1994亚博赞助欧冠article as “a shadowy figure once known on Wall Street as the Prince of Darkness for his secretive style.” Manolovici, in turn, introduced Odey to Soros and the Hungarian-born speculator’s lieutenant斯坦利德鲁克梅勒, who also had his own fund. For the aristocratic Brit the introduction was a revelation. It was, he says, “amazing to come up against these people. Essentially, the only thing that mattered was how much money you made for them.”

索罗斯仅投资对冲基金，而奥迪只是一个长期的股票经理，所以有些事情必须改变。奥迪做到了：1992年，他成立了自己的公司奥迪资产管理公司（Odey Asset Management），并用索罗斯（Soros）和全球资产管理公司（Global Asset Management）的资金推出了他的欧洲多空基金（European long-short fund）gam(a firm backed by another of Europe’s great banking families, the Rothschilds).

欧洲未来的问题当时迫在眉睫，拆分u.k.保守派和枯萎的市场。撒切尔是一个臭名昭着的Eurcoscepic，警告在一个令人难忘的1988年讲话中，反对“欧洲巨额巨大的行使来自布鲁塞尔的新统治地位”。两年后，她被党内的Pro-eu数字叛乱，并由约翰专业取得成功。他于1992年签署了欧洲联盟历史悠久的Maastricht条约，只在谈判为U.K.从条约的核心，单一货币中谈判。但是，主要是继续将庞大的价值盯住德意志标志，这项政策撒切尔在她的衰落日中采取了竞标，以降低通货膨胀。

奥迪的基金最初表现不错，在6月份发行，今年年底上涨了12.5%。不过，索罗斯的表现要好得多。随着英国通胀率相对较高，人们担心法国选民会拒绝马斯特里赫特条约，美国对冲基金投资者领导的投机者押注货币不稳定会爆发，迫使英国放弃英镑的德国马克链接。1992年9月16日，在英国被称为“黑色星期三”的一天，英国被迫退出欧盟汇率机制，让英镑贬值。通过做空英镑，索罗斯赚了10多亿美元，被称为“打破英格兰银行的人”

索罗斯声名狼藉，继续在伦敦经营是有问题的。索罗斯想保持现状，但又不想让这一事实广为人知，他在奥迪的办公室里工作。

在此期间，oddey记得与Druckenmiller交谈。英国人为他的基金所做的方式非常自豪，说：“我以为我会击中灯光。”但DruckenMiller的基金超过60％以上。Odey的课程：多样化。他说他意识到Druckenmiller“有四个桶;我有一个。”除了做长短股权交易外，DruckenMiller还在投资货币，商品和债券。从那时起，Odey说：“我总是希望拥有这四个桶的自由。”

该决定意味着odey占据传统的长短期股权基金经理和宏经理之间的某个空间。和行业的内部人士承认这可以推迟机构投资者希望对冲基金经理追求不同的投资风格。亚博赞助欧冠

ODEY’S BOLD STRATEGY would soon bite him. In 1993, convinced that the global economy was entering a deflationary slowdown, he began to buy European government bonds, which stood to benefit. Instead, the U.S. economy heated up and the Federal Reserve began raising rates in the spring of 1994, prompting other central banks to follow. Odey stuck to his guns and found himself fighting the Fed. The result was painful. Between January 1994 and July 1995, Odey European lost a breathtaking 50.64 percent. Only about a dozen hedge funds in a directory produced by HSBC Holdings, a universe of more than 400 funds, have posted bigger losses and continue to operate today. The result for Odey was devastating. As investors fled, assets sank from a high of $950 million to some $230 million by 1995.

今天，他把1994年的经历描述为一段非常孤独的时光。他的公司规模很小，他没有什么支持或基础设施，他的大多数投资者都走了(索罗斯一直在该基金工作到1997年，多年来一直以奥迪投资者的身份回归。奥迪决心不改变他自下而上选股与宏观投资相结合的风格。他意识到他需要一个更大的团队和更好的风险管理。

谦卑，odey重新组合。他的第一次动作之一是雇用弗莱彻。两者在牛津同时在牛津学习但彼此不认识。当朋友介绍他和盟约时，弗莱彻的弗莱彻曾成为基于U.k.的商家银行的Leopold Joseph。弗莱彻描述了它，这种关系下降到“颠簸的开始。他以为我是一个官僚，“弗莱彻认为odey”有点野生“。但随着时间的推移，他们互相建立了信任。作为odeygo的IDEY的ID，Fletcher承担了负责任的业务经理的角色，并制定了公司的风险管理控制和后台资源。他和odey也开始建立一个研究团队 - 今天的人数为20人，在产生投资思想中发挥着关键作用 - 并吸引了一个小型稳定的投资组合经理。“我总是一半半结束或开在河流上的桥梁，而Crispin总是在鳄鱼头穿过鳄鱼头，”弗莱彻说。

在1994年后加入的投资组合经理中，休•亨德利（Hugh Hendry）最引人注目。1999年，奥迪在一次偶然的会面后雇用了他。亨德利出生于格拉斯哥，是一名卡车司机的儿子，他是家里第一个上大学的人，毕业于苏格兰斯特拉斯克莱德大学，主修金融和经济。尽管他的背景比奥迪谦虚得多，但他和创始人一样固执己见，坚信不移。

odey资产管理2.0成功。与20世纪90年代的许多大型股权和宏观对冲基金不同，最符说老虎管理公司的Julian Robertson Jr.，Odey在20世纪90年代后期的Dot-Com集会期间没有燃烧。1996年，他的欧洲基金上涨了53.9％，1997年的51.8％和1998年的26.3％。虽然1999年是一个贫困的一年 - 欧洲基金上涨了5.9％，而MSCI世界指数飙升45％ - odey收益18.7％2000年，当MSCI世界失去了7.1％时。以下两年甚至更好：odey欧洲2001年的6.3％和2002年的12.9％，而MSCI世界则分别下降12.1％和32.2％。该公司的资产于2005年受到亨德里留下的，从颂歌公司购买Eclectica基金并作为Eclectica Asset Management建立自己的瓦片。但是，Odey已经证明他可以像公牛和熊一样获利。到2007年，他开始相信全球经济处于严重的麻烦。

Early to anticipate the global credit crunch and falling house prices, Odey shorted the stocks of a number of U.K. and Irish banks and building societies. His European fund returned 54.8 percent in 2007 and 10.9 percent in 2008, a year when the MSCI World plunged 38.1 percent and the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index lost 19.0 percent. One stock he couldn’t short was that of Northern Rock, a Newcastle-based housing lender that was one of the first casualties of the crisis, requiring a bailout by the Bank of England in September 2007 and later nationalization by the government — his wife, Nichola Pease, had a seat on the board.

在这场危机的后果,Odey迅速turned bullish on stocks, seeing them as undervalued. He began buying financial stocks in late 2008, and although his positions initially suffered, he ended 2009 up 33.7 percent. One particularly profitable trade was a stake in Barclays: Fears about the bank’s health depressed its share price to a low of 55 pence in early 2009, but the stock rebounded to more than 350 pence in just 15 months.

ODEY’S INVESTING SUCCESS has helped make him very much part of the U.K. establishment. An avid art collector, he has covered the walls of his Upper Grosvenor Street office in museum-quality paintings, including Dutch old masters and works by the pre-Raphaelites, a group of 19th-century English painters. In 2010 he was invited to serve as a trustee to the Portrait Fund of the National Portrait Gallery, an £8.5 million fund to finance acquisitions by the august London art museum, whose collection of paintings and photographs of historical figures is the oldest in the world. (The collection includes photos of his grandfather George, who served as a Conservative member of Parliament from 1947 to 1955.)

Like his namesake, Odey has always been a true-blue Tory. When Thatcher died, in 2013, he was effusive in his praise: “She believed in markets, not in governments,” he told Bloomberg News. “She was brave. She stuck to her line.” He is no fan of the current prime minister, however, seeing Cameron — and much of the country’s political leaders — as petty-minded and obsessed with obtaining power rather than people of strong conviction and principles in the Thatcher mold. Speaking shortly before the May 7 election, Odey said: “Cameron is a hopeless electioneer. He always has been.”

今天的政治最受欢迎是鲍里斯约翰逊，伦敦的华丽和直言不讳的市长和一个保守的议员。卡梅伦和约翰逊在Eton College，一所精英男孩的寄宿学校，然后在牛津，但他们的政治竞争是当今保守党政治的主导特子文字。据Oddy，耶和伦是在公共场合控制和分开的公共场所，谢谢，散发，散发，“一个决策者”。换句话说，约翰逊就像撒切尔，或者他自己，他带着独特的物理相似性。

Much to the surprise of Odey and the British political establishment, Cameron exceeded expectations in the election, routing the opposition Labour Party and his erstwhile coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats, and winning an outright majority in Parliament. His hold on power seems secure for now, and talk of a leadership challenge by Johnson, which Odey would have welcomed, has faded.

U.K.在欧洲围绕着大的政治不确定性。卡梅伦竞选承诺持有referendum on Britain’s continued EU membership到2017年。5月下旬，新政府提出了一项全民公决法案草案，卡梅伦在欧盟各国首都巡回游说，要求改变政策，包括限制欧盟国家移民的福利，削减工会的官僚机构，努力促进自由贸易协定——他坚持认为，这是确保英国继续加入该组织所必需的。

Odey makes no secret of his dislike of the EU and its Brussels-based bureaucracy. He shares the Thatcherite view that when the U.K. joined what was then the European Economic Community, back in the 1970s, it regarded the group as a trade bloc rather than what he sees as an ever-intrusive political entity governed by unelected and unanswerable bureaucrats. “I’d quite like to break with Europe,” he says. Whether he will actually campaign for a “no” vote in the referendum, which many financial institutions fear would threaten London’s standing as Europe’s financial capital, remains to be seen.

Odey’s distrust of unelected institutions extends to the dominant influence on financial markets today: central banks. Quantitative easing is “like giving gunpowder to the kings of Tudor England,” he says with characteristic élan. Europe can’t ease its way out of its economic problems, he asserts. “The only thing going for Europe is that America is obsessed with trying to normalize rates,” he says.

With China suffering from its own economic downturn, Odey sees an increasingly beggar-thy-neighbor world in which countries seek to print and inflate their way out of trouble, fomenting asset bubbles and货币战争。When economies become this speculative, he says, “the bulls and the bears become equally bearish.”

当瑞士国国家银行突然宣布时，将在1月份出现了预后，这是放弃瑞士法郎对欧元的价值的政策。法郎在价值和瑞士股票中飙升，在一些对冲基金和银行交易书桌上造成损失，这些商品用法将法国作为资助货币。珠穆朗玛峰资本，基于迈阿密的新兴市场的专注于市场的对冲基金被Marko Dimitrijevic经营，被迫在经历大规模损失后关闭其主要基金。

然而仅仅三个月后，奥迪自己就陷入了汇率陷阱。他看好美国经济前景，在做空澳元和欧洲股市的同时，做多美元。一系列令人失望的美国经济报告导致美元兑澳元走弱，这使得奥迪的立场有所动摇。该基金在新兴市场的空头头寸上也亏损；石油短缺，今年早些时候反弹；以及对电信股的长期投资。欧迪的欧洲基金遭遇了有史以来最严重的月度跌势，其货币仓位下跌12%，股票下跌7%。

与1994年的债券溃败不同，当亏损促使大量提款时，odey尚未看到投资者为出口竞争 - 至少还没有。但他已经迅速移动了损失。他将其整体货币职位从近300％的资产减少到大约50％，并将他的美国美元贸易从3月底截至4月底的274％到40％。他的澳大利亚美元缺乏从130％到12％。odey仍然认为他的基本经济前景是正确的，但他承认时机是关键，他这次弄错了。

Fletcher, who acts as chief risk officer, says the firm has risk management mechanisms in place, including stop-losses and a five-person executive committee consisting of himself, Odey, research co-head Hanbury, COO Tim Pearey and head of business development Orlando Montagu (younger son to the earl of Sandwich). But, he adds, “no committee can tell a manager how to manage money. The fund manager is totally responsible.” Although the risk officer might order a junior portfolio manager to close a position, senior managers have more discretion — and no one is more senior than Odey, the founder and CIO. Fletcher sees his job not as telling Odey what to do but trying first to understand where he is mentally. “If Crispin can articulate what he is doing, or if he is in denial or acting irrationally, that is what I look for,” he says.

随着美元贬值，奥迪的损失在4月16日突破了内部止损触发点。这时，弗莱彻向奥迪报案，想知道发生了什么事。”克里斯平说，“这就是我正在做的事情，为什么要这样做，”弗莱彻说，他留在了交易。然而，在本月晚些时候，亏损再次触发。奥迪和其他队员，包括弗莱彻，都在旅行。两天后，执行委员会在没有奥迪的情况下召开了会议，弗莱彻说奥迪“感到懊悔和尴尬”。在那次会议之后，奥迪决定结束他的职务。

The CIO believes such drubbings help him gain a new perspective. He points out that his fund sustained 20 percent losses three times between late 2008 and early 2009.

“我把自己造成了伤害，它可以变得非常讨厌，而且在我学到了一些事情的过程中，”他说。Odey在欧洲改变了他的观点。欧洲央行主席Mario Draghi.launched the central bank’s bond-buying program in December, Odey was deeply skeptical, saying the move smacked of hubris. “I worried that it is an experiment you don’t know your way out of,” he says. Now he takes a more positive view. Draghi’s determination to use QE to try to lower unemployment is starting to have an impact. The QE stimulus, in turn, is being reinforced by structural changes, such as employment law reform in Spain and creditor protection improvements in Italy. “Before, I looked at Draghi and thought, ‘You can’t win,’” Odey says. “Now I watch and think, ‘This is really starting to work.’”

Odey的挑战是保持他的观点，而不是发现自己在1994年争取美联储的信贷 - 幸福的中央银行 - 因为即使他在长期看跌预后，仍然没有确定的时间。这与说，索罗斯和德鲁克米尔缺乏英镑，这与众不同。According to Michael Rosen, CIO of Santa Monica, California–based investment advisory firm Angeles Investment Advisors, in that scenario Druckenmiller, who had the original idea for the short, realized that the situation was “unsustainable because you’ve got all these competing factors and you’re raising interest rates. It doesn’t make sense.” The reckoning had to come in a relatively short amount of time. But in today’s environment, Rosen notes, “governments can keep things going for a lot longer than the markets imagine.”

If Odey is to survive this setback, he will need to turn his performance around. The European fund gained back 5 percent in May. In the meantime, the firm is more dependent than ever on its other funds. Hanbury’s Odey Absolute Return, which manages $1.8 billion in assets, was flat on the year through the end of May. Bond’s Odey Odyssey Fund, a multi-asset-class fund, was up 10.3 percent through mid-May. In March the firm brought on board a new portfolio manager, Oliver Kelton, who comes with a $1.8 billion portfolio.

多么不同的基金Odey的房子内can be was apparent from the CIO’s February 2015 investor letter, which highlighted the differences between his portfolio and Bond’s. “We don’t want to be him,” the letter opened, referring to Bond, “but how lucky you are, you clients of Odey!” The CIO proceeded to lay out the difference between Bond’s outlook, bullish and profiting from the European stock market rally, and his own view, bearish and short. “I don’t know how Tim would describe his portfolio at the moment,” Odey summed up, “but mine is definitely a hot curry” with overpriced equities helping to “spice and spike my returns.”

Fletcher表示，Odey认为他的公司非常喜欢律师，律师们在英国法院争论案件：虽然他们分享支持人员，每个投资组合经理，如每个律师，负责他或她自己的商业书籍。然而，在门上无可否认的颂歌名字，奥德大于生活的个性越来越大。根据美国证券交易委员会提交的记录，盟约及其家庭拥有85％的控股公司落后于公司;其余的已作为公司保留和继承计划的一部分分配。拥有主要基金低于其高水位标记，意味着绩效费用的大幅下降，并在过去五年中占据了一倍以上的公司的收入。

One of the most valuable lessons Odey says he learned from Soros and Druckenmiller was that an investor can make money by “sitting in very uncomfortable places.” In Soros’ case that meant shorting the U.K. pound. “Ultimately,” Odey says, “sitting in uncomfortable places is a very profitable business to be in at the right time.”

然而，反对人群可以在精神上疲惫，因为当时间真的是正确的时候，因为一个人永远不会确定。这是一个有一个真正的逆轨投资者的一个原因，具有很长的轨道记录。“你对市场有不同的看法，”你对市场有不同的看法“，”他的早期说。你可能会“太累了，无法努力解决你的不同观点。”

弗莱彻指出，在1994年的失利之后，奥迪本可以放弃。相反，“他决定去争取，而不是仅仅跑。”奥迪为自己的公司和财富奋斗了这么久，现在不太可能投降了

访问Imogen Rose-Smith的博客和follow her on Twitter at@伊莫根尼克。